Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. I had a question posed to me on Twitter the other day. It was a tough one so I figured I’d spill a little ink on it here.

@tdubbswpg: What side do you pick for a points only keeper league, no positional requirements?? 1) Pettersson (Van); 2) Lafreniere (NYR) and Dach (Chi).

These types of deals always give me pause. On one hand, if you’re a team in a rebuild or are trying to fill out a deep roster, nabbing two extremely exciting young players is awfully tempting. You fill a center and wing spot with future high-impact talent. That said, Elias Pettersson is the best player in the group.

I think realistic point upsides for the three are as follows:

• Pettersson – 100 points
• Alexis Lafreniere – 90 points
• Kirby Dach – 85 points

My gut says to hold onto Pettersson. However, if you believe Lafreniere can be a triple-digit guy (which isn’t out of the question) then you make the swap. But if we’re thinking that’s the case, I’d make the argument that EP is more of a 110-point upside character. Sorry, tdubbs, I don’t have a perfect answer for you this time around. (nov18)

2. I just saw this interesting question about keeping Nikita Gusev or Jack Hughes over at the DobberHockey Forum. The respondents seem to advocate keeping both Devils over Tomas Tatar, which I can get behind especially if you’re looking beyond the coming season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Montreal 2019-20 scoring leader Tatar outscore both players in 2020-21, even though both Devils possess higher upside.

3. Don’t expect a huge breakout from the 26-year-old Damon Severson from what he has produced already. But if he can secure the Devils' PP1 role in 2020-21, then there are signs that he could be onto the first 40-point season of his career. Keep in mind that Severson might not hold the spot long term, as 2018 first-rounder Ty Smith could make his Devils debut this coming season. Smith was nearly a point-per-game player (0.98 PTS/GP) in 240 WHL games, so he possesses a higher long-term ceiling than Severson.

4. With just 13 points in 36 games in 2019-20, Alexandre Texier may not grab your attention in upcoming fantasy drafts. Yet there are signs that the 21-year-old might be in for a bigger leap in 2020-21 and that he would make a solid deep sleeper.

During the postseason, Texier’s most frequent center was first-liner Pierre-Luc Dubois, with either Oliver Bjorkstrand or Cam Atkinson as the other winger. Add to that the fact that Gustav Nyquist will miss the start of the season with shoulder surgery, and Texier is projected to retain a spot on the top line. The offseason acquisitions of Max Domi and Mikko Koivu will also allow Texier to focus on scoring and not as many of the defensive responsibilities that come with being a center.

If Texier is being used on the top line, expect his power-play minutes to increase. Maybe not to first-unit levels, but at least from the 0:33 PPTOI that he averaged during the regular season. A sign that they will is the bump he received during the postseason, when he averaged 1:54 PPTOI, which were the equivalent of second-unit minutes. Better even-strength production will lead to more power-play minutes, and he’s got a great opportunity at even strength. Most teams probably wouldn’t move a player as unproven as Texier onto the top line, even if he has upside. Columbus isn’t a high-scoring team, though, as they finished 28th in team offense in 2019-20 with 2.57 GF/GP. It’s a big leap of faith, and an opportunity that he may not receive again for a while if he can’t take advantage.

5. John Carlson was the leading scorer among defensemen last season, a good 10 points clear of second-place (and Norris Trophy winner) Roman Josi. Carlson also finished second in power-play points among defensemen (26 PPP). He should be a no-brainer first defenseman off draft boards this coming season. On a keep-4 roster, you want to keep the best player at any position. Even in a rebuilding state, that asset should fetch blue-chip prospects you can then build around. (nov20)

6. I’ve mentioned that I’d like to keep players that will help me win now. That’s why it might not be wise on my part to keep Brad Marchand, a 32-year-old player who may miss the start of the season due to offseason surgery (expected recovery by mid-January; season could start in early January). Yet we know how valuable a scorer Marchand is (sixth in league scoring with 87 points) and how consistent he has been (80+ points over each of the past four seasons). I’ll have to consider the most recent update about his status before making a decision, as I may need to look in another direction if he experiences a serious setback. (nov20)

7. Keep one goalie: Tuukka Rask, Elvis Merzlikins, or John Gibson?

This is probably a fairly simple decision if all you do is use Dobber’s goaltending tiers. Yet I’ll try to explain why Rask should be the goalie, even if the rumors that he may retire after the season have any substance.

If you’re a rebuilding team with a higher number of keepers and a true minor league system, I can understand the decision to go with the younger Merzlikins, or even hope that Gibson rebounds along with the rebuilding Ducks. However, I’m interested in trying to win this league this season, and I know that Rask will be picked in the first draft round (after the keepers are selected). Rask should be a top-5 goalie again on draft day because of his strong ratios and his win percentage. Only Andrei Vasilevskiy (67.3%) had a higher win percentage than Rask (63.4%) among goalies that played at least 15 games last season, which matters if you’re worried that Jaroslav Halak will cut into Rask’s workload too much.

Should Rask retire, I will have probably drafted another goalie in the early draft rounds, like I did with Gibson in the 2019-20 draft. If not, I may get lucky and add a prospect goalie like I did with Elvis when Joonas Korpisalo went down to injury. I ended the season with five goalies on my roster, so I’m confident that I’ll have something to choose from. If not, then I also have the option of keeping four skaters instead, which might not be the worst thing to happen if you consider the volatile nature of goalies. (nov20)

8. Word is top OHL prospect for the ’21 draft, Brandt Clarke is off to the Swedish Allsvenskan and that it’s not a loan. It’s a full-season agreement. The Swedish second-tier runs until late-March before playoffs kick in. This isn't a great sign for the OHL season.

This a scenario that would see Clarke spend virtually the entirety of his draft-eligible season outside of the OHL. A bad sign for the league’s return to play – a mandate that’s already faced challenges with the public health officer stating there would be no bodychecking in the league if/when it returns.

Quickly, that's a ridiculous assertation. As if players only get close to one another during big contact. Board work, faceoffs, chatting on the bench, battling in the netfront… all put players as close or closer than checking.

As it stands, the OHL season is scheduled to begin on February 4, 2021. Teams have been told to have players and staff ready for training camp in January. Let's hope that is the case, as an entire lost season would be extremely detrimental to the league. The impact would last for years. (nov18)

9. One thing I do in fantasy leagues – and yes, I know a lot of people do this – is stack teams in my fantasy drafts. A couple years ago, I focused on Calgary Flames skaters and that worked out very well. This past season, it was the New York Rangers, and that worked out great – I had a 12-team league with 30 roster spots, Ryan Strome was like my 27th pick, and he became a staple of my lineup for large portions of the season.

The reason for doing this is two-fold. Goals/assists/shots/PPPs are multiplied, so one goal from, say, Artemi Panarin can bring a goal and two assists to a fantasy roster. The second is that there are not only under-valued players every year, there are under-valued teams. Rosters who just couldn’t find the back of the net, dealt with injuries, or had other reasons for being under-valued in drafts.

One team that is a possibility for this method in 2020-21 is Buffalo but I assume a lot of people will be going in that direction. The addition of Taylor Hall to Jack Eichel will get a lot of people excited. (nov17)

10. More about stacking teams and a look at the Flames. That got me thinking about one of their blue liners: Rasmus Andersson.

In the second half of last season, the power-play time splits were as such: four defensemen had between 1:23 and 2:01 of PPTOI per game. One of those defensemen (Erik Gustafsson) is now elsewhere.

In the playoffs, it was all Gustafsson, as he took about 36 minutes of the PPTOI, and no other defenseman had more than 16 (Mark Giordano). Effectively, it seems like it’s between Giordano/Noah Hanifin/Andersson for the top PP slot in 2021.

That Hanifin fell off in PPTOI as much as Andersson in the postseason tells me they’re in the same boat: chasing down Giordano. However, Giordano’s role was reduced as the year went on: he dropped from about three minutes per game in the first half of the season to two minutes per game in the second half, and then 90 seconds per contest in the playoffs.

If Giordano’s role is diminished, then it makes sense it’s one of Hanifin or Andersson to get those minutes. I do think Hanifin has a leg up but it probably makes more sense to draft Andersson, when considering draft cost. We’ll see when ADPs are released; I’m just spit-balling for now. But I do think there is a PP1 slot that is up in the air, and those minutes are incredibly valuable for fantasy. They are minutes worth investing in, even if we go broke on the investment. (nov19)

UPDATED PROJECTIONS!!

The NHL will soon announce the official start date for the 2020-21 NHL season, so we can finally set some draft dates!

Already available is the 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide and the 13th annual Fantasy Prospects Report (get them both at a steeeep discount via the Keeper League Fantasy Pack found here).

I can safely say that it's the best Guide on the market right now. And as soon as the NHL announces the length of the schedule, all projections will be revised to match the appropriate games played.

Also : EN FRANÇAIS, le Nº 1 dans l'industrie, Le 15e Guide des Poolers et sa Liste de Repêchage.

– Dobber

11. I don’t normally talk about my leagues in detail as I find it’s tantamount to telling someone about your dream last night. After about the 15-second mark, you’ve lost your audience. But I will take a moment to share a couple of interesting results from a draft I had last Saturday night.

For clarity, this is a 12-person league with 15 keepers apiece. Goaltenders are historically hard to come by, but defenders were kept at a very high rate this year. Alexander Holtz went fourth overall ahead of Marco Rossi, Lucas Raymond and Yaroslav Askarov. This went against the consensus of the polling twitter mob but does make a lot of sense. Holtz is equally dynamic as Raymond or Rossi and he has the added luxury of landing in Newark with the prospect of receiving passes from Jack Hughes for the next decade. I honestly could not have picked a better situation for Holtz to step into. One of the most devastating young finishers partnering up with one of the best pure passing youngsters. It should be juicy. (nov18)

12. I, of course, really love this year’s NHL Draft for fantasy-worthy forwards. Deeper than most years in terms of having forwards who at least have the ‘potential’ to get to 90 points one year. And other than Alexis Lafreniere, there are a group of eight or nine forwards with pretty much equal chance of getting to that lofty number. While most poolies will be going straight for Quinton Byfield, Tim Stuetzle and Marco Rossi once Lafreniere is gone, and rightfully so. Those are each elite players who will almost certainly produce lofty numbers, some quicker than others. But I’m not going to look at the upsides here. One is as good as another for that, probably going all the way down to Connor Zary at the 24th pick. No, I’m going to look at opportunity for the players outside of the first three picks:

Cole Perfetti was taken 10th overall by the Winnipeg Jets and I think things are lining up really nicely for him to make an impact without waiting too long for him. Paul Stastny‘s contract is up after this season, and Perfetti should be ready to have his rookie NHL campaign for 2021-22. It lines up really nicely. The Jets won’t slot him directly into that No.2 slot though. Teams tend to do what they can to relieve the expectations and pressure on their youngsters. So the Jets will sign some veteran – perhaps even Stastny – who can cover off that second line to start, but can easily slot back to third line if Perfetti performs. The point is, I really like this guy for 2021-22. Call it a super-early Calder candidate. (nov16)

13. Lucas Raymond is another one of those top forwards and I strongly favor him because of his team’s situation. Drafted fourth overall, he is already the top (potentially) winger on the Red Wings. And the team has tons of room for him in 2021-22. So again, very low wait time. Yes, many of those players drafted in the first 20 or 25 picks are going to make the jump in the first two seasons. Likely more than in usual years. But how many will put up points right away versus how many will see a gradual, Sam Steel-like increase in year-over-year production? And that’s where, after Lafreniere, Byfield, Stuetzle and Rossi, I like Perfetti and Raymond. (nov16)

14. Ironically, Florida can afford Mike Hoffman. But I say Columbus signs him to a one-year contract worth around $5M AAV. A pay cut after scoring 65 goals in 151 games. He signs for one year in hopes that the market gets back to normal in a year. But it won’t, because the cap remains flat for next year too, and teams will be spending to keep their RFAs. Second pick: Nashville. (nov16)

15. Mikael Granlund made $5.75M last season and even though he doesn’t deserve a raise, in a normal offseason he would get one because NHL general managers aren’t thinking straight once free agency opens. But in the current climate, GMs are taking a harder look. They’re being much more careful, and frugal. In other words – they’re doing what they should always be doing (but had never done it before). I think he has to settle for a low-ball offer and he may even take two years. I think he may have to settle for last year’s salary getting cut in half. I think Detroit is a good fit, but if he signs there I bet Steve Yzerman convinces him to take a one-year deal at a shockingly-low AAV. Second pick: Los Angeles. (nov16)

16. Andreas Athanasiou joining a team screams New Jersey to me. It also screams “cheap deal”. He made $3M last season and I think he gets signed for $1M this year. On the Devils, Lindy Ruff’s strong defensive coaching style will help. As will getting put on the third line. To move into the top six he would have to out-play Jesper Bratt or Andreas Johnsson, which as far as the team is concerned, can only help all three. Second pick: Ottawa. (nov16)

17. Sami Vatanen, so much unrealized talent and upside, never to be seen because of the constant injuries. I almost need to look over each team’s medical staff, figure out which ones need the most medical-room practice, and go with that team as his next home. But anyway, which team needs a right-shot 65-game defenseman? I honestly think Columbus would be a great fit if he was a left-shot. He’d slot in nicely with Andrew Peeke on the right side for the third pairing. Will they do that anyway? It would create such a good, mobile defense group with an amazing top four in Zach Werenski – Seth Jones followed by Vladislav Gavrikov – David Savard, and then Vatanen – Peeke. I think I just talked myself into it. Second pick: NY Islanders. (nov16)

18. With Ryan Suter and Matt Dumba already in tow, Jared Spurgeon will likely stick on the second-unit power play for the foreseeable future. If a rumored Dumba trade takes place, Spurgeon is one player who could benefit, as the Wild haven’t been shy about using a 3F-2D power play in the past.

There isn’t a huge gap between the first unit and the second unit in terms of minutes, and Spurgeon has been used on the first unit at times as well. So multicategory owners will be pleased to know that he has averaged double-digit power-play points in four of his last five seasons.

Overall, Spurgeon was a top-40 option in goals, points, and power-play points in 2019-20. He fits the category of a scoring defenseman who could fill out your roster that you won’t have to think about much throughout the season. (nov15)

19. Justin Faulk (52% owned in Fantrax leagues) Type of keeper: One-time roto league keeper… but no longer.

During his Carolina days, I often targeted Faulk in multicategory leagues because of his ability to pile up stats in multiple categories, including goals, assists, power-play points, shots, and hits (remember that season when he scored 12 power-play GOALS?) For that reason, Faulk has traditionally had much more value in roto leagues than in points-only leagues. Over the past few seasons and particularly with the move from Carolina to St. Louis, his value in both types of leagues has declined.

In his first season with the Blues, Faulk finished with a career-low 0.23 PTS/GP, which amounted to just 16 points in 69 games. Faulk also failed to finish with 200 shots for the first time in four seasons and with 100 hits for the first time in six seasons, and there was no guarantee he would have reached those numbers even over a full season. Worse yet, he was held to just three power-play points, which was a far cry from the double-digit power-play point totals that he could be penciled in for with the Hurricanes.

Faulk will no doubt be blamed for the seven-year, $45.5 million contract that he signed shortly after being traded to the Blues, particularly because it meant less cap room for Alex Pietrangelo when his contract expired. From a fantasy perspective, a bounce-back to some degree is entirely possible, but he could be settling into a more defensive role with the Blues. Torey Krug will essentially replace Pietrangelo on the first-unit power play, so Faulk’s output in his second season with the Blues might not be much different from that of his first season. (nov15)

20. Henri Jokiharju (66% owned in Fantrax leagues) Type of keeper: Will need to wait a while.

Jokiharju projects to be a top-4 defenseman for the Sabres, maybe even a top-pairing blueliner. He seems to be a good fit when paired with Rasmus Dahlin. The question is, will that translate to fantasy value for Jokiharju? Currently he is in that group between 66 and 90 in Dobber’s Top 100 Keeper Defensemen, which includes the previously mentioned Gostisbehere and Skjei.

Jokiharju’s ownership in keeper leagues likely took a major bump when he debuted with the Blackhawks in 2018-19, recording five assists over his first three games. After that, he hasn’t scored at nearly that pace, recording a fairly low 0.2 PTS/GP. Still, it’s easy to forget that he is only 21 years of age and already entering his third NHL season. With the Sabres, Jokiharju won’t receive the first-unit power-play minutes because of Dahlin. Yet with considerable icetime, he should be able to pick up some points along with blocked shots and perhaps hits. Based on his output over those two seasons, you may need to wait a few more seasons to see that point curve trend upward enough for him to be worthy of a spot in your starting lineup. (nov15)

21. Shayne Gostisbehere (62% owned in Fantrax leagues) Type of keeper: One-time points league keeper… but no longer.

There is a fine line between being a fantasy stud and a healthy scratch when you’re both a power-play specialist and a defensive liability. Gostisbehere has experienced both sides of it, as he has ridden the waves of both a 65-point season (2017-18) and a 23-point pace (2019-20). That massive decline in production has also been noticeable in the category that he is most known for – power-play points. Ghost tied for the league lead with 33 PPP in his 2017-18 career season, but he sunk to just 5 PPP in 2019-20.

It won’t get any easier for Ghost in 2020-21. The Flyers added another power-play specialist this offseason in Erik Gustafsson, who has been used on the first unit in both Chicago and Calgary.

Gostisbehere was a healthy scratch numerous times in 2019-20, so he had been bumped off the first-unit power-play by top-pairing d-man Ivan Provorov. Ghost could still end up on the second power-play unit, but his 5-on-5 play could dictate how often he is in the lineup. Gostisbehere has fallen out of must-keep territory because of his declining returns over the last two seasons, as well as the unpredictability of the healthy scratches. That’s unfortunate, especially if you’ve paid a significant price to obtain him. A trade from Philadelphia would probably help his value, but his contract (three more years at $4.5 million per) makes it extremely difficult for the Flyers to do. It’s worth mentioning that the Flyers have reportedly been trying to shop him, as he might be better off with a fresh start somewhere else. (nov15)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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