The 15^th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out and ready for download! Draft List too!

The NHL and NHLPA are now targeting a January 13 start and a 56-game season. Last Wednesday I re-posted the Fantasy Guide with 56-game projections. Simply re-download your copy in the Downloads section to access the latest Guide.

Thank you everyone who have already purchased. Sales have been tough this year and you guys have come through huge. Much, much appreciated. I know it's been a fun and helpful read even with no hockey these past several months. Hopefully when the NHL schedule comes out sales can make up some lost ground!

*

I feel like, starting this week, the hockey news will come at us fast and furious and there will be no shortage of material for the Ramblings. So, in the spirit of considering this week my last week where finding good material is tough – I turned to Twitter to answer some great questions. Let's get started!

When should Kirill Kaprizov get drafted?

— Joshua Wilson (@hockey0097) December 13, 2020

This depends on your categories and if your league is a keeper or a one-year. He should go immediately after Lafreniere in a keeper league, and ahead of him in a one-year league. I have him ranked in the mid-60s among skaters in my Draft List. If your league leans heavy on points and ignores peripherals, then he's sixth round in a 12-team points league. If it's a roto league, then you'll bump him down to around the Jakub Vrana zone. They'll have similar numbers across the board.

*

@DobberHockey should I keep Lundqvist in case Samsonov doesn't work out this year?

— Doug MacLean (@DougJMac65) December 13, 2020

If you have room for him, then yes. But if there is any question about that, or if it means passing on a better player in the draft, then I would let Lundqvist go. The only way Samsonov doesn't work out is if he gets injured. He's very, very safe if he stays healthy.

*

I'm about 2 years from contention and would like to trade some young players in for a stud. Who should I keep and who should I trade. Ideally I want to keep those who near their upside 2 years from now. Thomas glass steel turcotte Meier D strome mantha dach?Points only. Thanks.

— David Schroeder (@MrDavidaca) December 13, 2020

Trade Glass, Dach and Mantha. Keep Turcotte, Steel Meier and Strome. Glass and Mantha are very injury prone, yet they are highly regarded in fantasy leagues. Cash in on that and let the other owner take the risk. Kirby Dach is also overvalued, but for a different reason. I can see him progress like a Dylan Strome. Meanwhile, everyone seems to think that he's an 80-point guy right away. While that's possible, I think it's best that you play the odds here. Statistically, a big player like that will take longer and progress more slowly. Sure, he looks great now, but I believe he moves very slowly across that 60-point threshold (four years? Five?). Again, I could be wrong, but if you can cash in on the name and get more immediate rewards immediately, then it's still worth doing.

*

First time writing here! Need to make a decision on a capped keeper pool. Format is point only. Keeper deadline is next week and I'm hesitating between keeping Dadonov, Hoffman and Johnsson(njd). Thanks!

— Etienne Garceau (@egarceaut) December 13, 2020

I think Evgenii Dadonov's ceiling is not as high in Ottawa, so I would take the chance that Mike Hoffman signs with a team that won't hurt his reliable production any. I think you keep Hoffman, even with Andreas Johnsson being so much cheaper. Johnsson is unproven, and seems to be injury prone to boot.

*

Have to keep two of Bjorkstrand, Vrana, Ehlers, E. Lindhom? G,A,PIMs, Blks, Hts.

— Adam D (@Dibbler2) December 13, 2020

Whoa, this is a tough one. Seriously, this one is close. When the answer isn't obvious, the first thing I do is try to look at their stats one on top of the other. Best tool for that – Player Compare. Here is Player Compare for those four players.

As you can see, all four players are closely-ranked in my Top 300 Skaters list (for points-only though), with each ranked between 40 (Lindholm) and 63 (Vrana). Lindholm also appears in Ian's Top Roto list at 80. So Lindholm is one of your picks right there. Looking at the Basic Stats area, and keeping in mind that Bjorkstrand missed time last year, I rule out Vrana from the contest. He matches up in terms of points, but his PIM and Hits fall short of where the other two could reach.

So we're down to Elias Lindholm and one of either Nik Ehlers or Oliver Bjorkstrand. The latter guy has higher upside, but Ehlers has a better and more proven track record. This comes down to your preference – if you want to swing for the fences and risk injury (Bjorkstrand was hurt twice last year), then you go Bjorkstrand. If you want the safe guy who still has great upside, you go Ehlers. If it's me, I play it safe and take Nik.

*

Does playing in an all Canadian division dramatically increase or only slightly increase the value of the Tkachuk brothers in leagues counting hits?

— SleepyStoic (@SleepyStoic) December 13, 2020

Probably the question I've been asked the most this week on Twitter is something along the lines of whether or not I adjust my projections based on stronger or weaker divisions. The answer is no. I feel like this kind of micromanaging has just as much chance of backfiring as it does of helping you. Think the division is weak and that means scoring will increase? Well – what if means the coaches turn to trap hockey (as best as can be managed under the rules) and scoring actually drops? What if you plan on Florida, Detroit and Chicago's division to allow tons of goals…but the awesome Sergei Bobrovsky comes back strong, Thomas Greiss shows that he's underrated and Collin Delia is the next Corey Crawford? The division already has the frugal Nashville and Columbus teams and you had been banking on the other teams to give up tons of goals. You just shot yourself in the foot.

I don't think an all-Canadian division will increase the Hits count of the Tkachuk brothers. I think they rack up Hits no matter who they play.

*

Long term keeper league, weigh in on what we do if the 56 game schedule is significantly altered/ shortened? @VanBananaMan

— Travis Merrick (@SirNope) December 13, 2020

My keeper leagues will award the trophy and prize money to whoever is winning the season ends. Just like last year. If the NHL does it, then the game that we all play and try to match the NHL as much as possible – fantasy hockey – can do it too. Would be smart to mention it to your entire league, before the season even starts, that this is what you plan to do. And make it clear that this could mean that some teams play 47 games while others play 45 games. This doesn't necessarily mean that the end of the season's games gets lopped off. It could actually mean that two weeks get chopped out of the middle of the season and never get made up.

*

Should I trade E Karlsson for Seider and a pick? Is Seider's upside worth it? #FantasyHockey

— Craig Hendricks (@CDHendricks22) December 13, 2020

No, I don't think Karlsson's value has fallen that low. Seider won't pay any dividends at all for several years. You could probably do this trade next year or the year after, same assets coming back your way.

*

Keep 4, h2h

Malkin, Stamkos, Marchand, Tavares, Rask(pretty much have to keep a goalie due to what's left if you don't), #FantasyHockey

— ︻╦╤─ (@theerealcheese) December 13, 2020

I drop Stamkos under this scenario, and keep the other four. I'll assuming Marchand misses no more than five games to start the season, and also assume Stamkos misses at least five later in the year because he's fragile. Malkin is also a lock to be hurt, but his points-per-game is much higher.

*

In a H2H 12 team keep-13 league (positions matter), stats categories G,A,+/-,PPP,HIT,PIM,BLK, rank the following players: Vrana, Meier, Barzal, Fiala, Larkin (I can keep 3 out of 5)

— Sean Murphy (@SeanMurphyHFX) December 13, 2020

Kevin Fiala

Mathew Barzal

Timo Meier (great for Hits, bad for plus/minus)

Dylan Larkin (bad for plus/minus, but better points than Meier or Vrana)

Jakub Vrana (has upside, but lacks PIM, Hits and BLKS)

*

Who will lead 2020-21 in PIMs

— Boris Sandron (@L0RDFuDGE) December 13, 2020

A lot of these questions are answered in my Fantasy Guide and Draft List of course, but for those who didn't buy and are gauging whether it will be worth your while, I am giving away sneak peeks. The Top 5 PIM players in my Draft List are:

1. Evander Kane
2. Brendan Lemieux
3. Brady Tkachuk/Barclay Goodrow (tied)
4. Tom Wilson

*

Will Kaprizov being relevant offensively ?

— Byra (@unklebyra) December 13, 2020

Absolutely. My only fear is a small one – that he is used sparingly and brought along slowly, rather than thrown right out there on the top line with tons of expectations and pressure. And that no matter how well he produces, he still gets held down. Similar to Nikita Gusev last season. Gusev was still quite productive, and Kaprizov will be as well if he's given the same treatment. But I suspect Kaprizov will be given the red carpet and I believe he'll do well. Immediately.

*

Alex Galchenyuk bounce back season in Ottawa?

— Jason Cox (@JasonCoxPen) December 13, 2020

I believe he will rebound, but only if he can stay healthy. If he plays 50 games, then I believe he will surprise. He's a proven 50-point player entering his prime now, so I haven't written him off as a potential 70-point player. I have him projected for 30 points in 51 games, but I don't see why he can't get 35 or even 40 this year if he's back to full health.

*

Zijanejad, B. Tkachuk, Rantanen…..Pick 2 keepers for a bangers league. G,A,Shots,Hits,Blocks,PPP

— Sports Harder!! (@hockeyactor) December 13, 2020

Tkachuk's ridiculous Hits rate and decent points actually makes him a better guy to own in a league like this than Rantanen, who may or may not get injured. Even though Rantanen is a Top 20 scorer, man…to have the No.1 Hits guy and that player is still a Top 100 points producer is probably better.

I have Zibanejad with more points than Rantanen this season.

*

Whats the Rask situation? Is he going to play this year?

— 🌳BriaN🌲 (@OutdoorsDadBC) December 13, 2020

As far as I know, there is no Rask situation and he will play the final year of his contract for Boston.

*

Rossi/Denisenko; who has the most immediate upside and who has the best long term projection?

— ThomasVS (@RandomSchans) December 13, 2020

I think I will take Marco Rossi as my answer to both of these questions.

*

Who to take 3rd overall in first year of Keeper h2h pts league. Can only assume mcd and Mac go 1-2.

— REEBS (@andrewreibel) December 13, 2020

Nikita Kucherov for me, then Leon Draisaitl.

*

12 team league. Keep 8. G, A, PTS, PPP, SOG, HIts, BLK. I got 5th overall. Crazy to pick Kaprizov?

— Philippe V. Gagné (@Insane_Crayfish) December 13, 2020

So this is like asking if he should go 101^st overall (since 12×8=96 players are being kept). No, this is not crazy at all – take him, unless you have a glaring need in net and there are great goalies available.

*

Keeper league questions- Khudobin in the 7th round or Matt Murray in round 15? Can keep 2 of Kubalik or Fiala in round 16/17 or DeBrincat in round 6? Thanks Dobber.

— Banks Thompson (@WilcoWacko) December 13, 2020

Take Matt Murray in the 15^th round. Keep Fiala and Kubalik in those later rounds. I like DeBrincat better than Kubalik of course, but with 10 rounds of value difference it's probably best you keep Kubalik, and then re-draft DeBrincat in a later round.

*

M. Tkachuk for Gurianov goals for only league?

— MartyRBrown (@beerhockeyslut) December 13, 2020

Are we watching the same Denis Gurianov? Matt Tkachuk all the way.

*

Who are some good players that aren't really on the radar right now but could be coming into their 4 year window/prime very soon??

— tdubbswpg (@tdubbswpg) December 13, 2020

Jack Roslovic, Jesper Bratt, Jake Virtanen, Colton Parayko, Adrian Kempe

*

Is there a young Defenceman that you feel will make a significant impact points wise this year that might be flying under the radar?? 🙏🏼

— JLD (@jldtwo) December 13, 2020

These player 'could' (not 'will'):

Ryan Pulock, Mike Matheson, Matt Grzelcyk, Juuso Valimaki, Brogan Rafferty

*

What kind of impact the arrival of Krug in STL will affect the production of Dunn?

— Jean-Gab Tremblay (@gab5619) December 13, 2020

Kills it. The signing was devastating for Dunn owners.

*

Where's Shesterkin ranked for goalies in a points only keeper league? Wins and saves are all that matters

— Kurtis (@KurtisPetersen1) December 13, 2020

In my rankings I have Igor Shesterkin in the Top 10, but personally I would rather own him over any other goalie in the league other than Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy in that format.

*

Upside for Lafreniere and who will be his linemates this year?

— jshouly (@jshouly1) December 13, 2020

I would love to see him on the third line with Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko. Here are my line combos in the Guide:

Panarin – Zibanejad – Buchnevich

Kreider – Strome – Gauthier

Lafreniere – Chytil – Kakko

But line combos are fickle, always changing. And don't worry about Alexis Lafreniere's production – he'll produce points even if you're at center and I'm on the other wing. He'll be on the top PP unit by midseason.

*

John Gibson was not a good fantasy goalkeeper last season. Bounce back year?

— Not the USA Hockey GM (@MockUSAHockeyGM) December 13, 2020

The last two years, my goalie rankings in November and December were criticized for not having John Gibson high enough. Some readers were pretty vocal and insulting about it. Some even saying he should win the Hart Trophy! It's memories like this that remind me where some players were at early in the season. To start the last two years, Gibson was great. Then his team fell apart and he along with it. I expect more of the same. But with a shortened season, falling apart again at Game 25 won't make his numbers look as bad in the end.

Check out his profile (click his name above) and beneath his career stats you can see his quarterly comparison. First quarter last year he was 0.913 SV% (actually mediocre). The season before that he was 0.928 in the first quarter before taking a nosedive.

*

Draft Shesterkin or Jarry in keeper league? (I need a goalie)

— JBL (@Jlarose11) December 13, 2020

Shesterkin for me, unless it's strictly wins. In that case you would want Jarry for the potential game starts. Shesterkin better for the GAA and SV% stats.

*

Who was the quickest path to the NHL, Spencer Knight or Askarov? Thanks.

— HABS/FantasyHcky Addict (@patrick_neron) December 14, 2020

Askarov, by about two or three years, in my opinion.

*

See you next Monday.