Geek of the Week: Monster Late-Round Value at Right Wing

Logan Doyle

2021-01-03

Most one-year leagues consist of 10 to 14 teams and start three players at each forward position. Due to the depth and quality of players available at each position most players are already well known. Unlike defenceman there is less need or requirement to dig really deep for hidden gems.

Part of draft research consists of identifying players that are falling deeper in drafts than their value warrants. Late-round drafting is where a GM can really separate themselves from the other teams in their pool.

One observation of this year's positional rankings is how many players have held onto dual wing eligibility during the off-season. Normally there is an update that strips dual eligibility from a significant portion of players. Because this did not occur there is a plethora of wingers qualifying for both left and right wing to start the season.

There's no shortage of quality right wingers this year.

Oliver Bjorkstrand – RW (LW) – Columbus Blue Jackets

Yahoo ranking – 153 (47th ranked RW)

Yahoo draft – average pick – 172 (15.3 round)

FHG ranking – 101 (24th ranked RW)

"If not for injuries." That's the line that follows Bjorkstrand into this season like an early-morning shadow. When healthy he was absolutely lights out with 15 goals and six assists in his last 23 games. He had just begun to build real excitement in December before going down with the first injury. The hype really blew up when he returned with back-to-back two-goal games before going down with another injury. He returned again without missing a beat and put up nine points in 11 games before the league shut down. 

The stat that really stands out is his 162 shots on goal over those 49 games. That translates to 271 shots over an 82-game schedule and would likely have pushed him into the top 20 for shots on goal. If you really want put last season in perspective, he had 161 shots in 77 games in 2018-19. He eclipsed his entire shot total of 2018-19 in 28 less games. 

His was on a 35 goal pace while maintaining a stable 13% shooting-percentage. His shooting percentage was 1.7% lower than it was in 2018-19. There should be no real red flags that his goal totals will regress going forward.

He also saw his ice time shoot up a whopping 5:36 ice time from 2018-19 and 1:15 in power play ice time. Any hopes of his ice-time increasing much more should be tempered. Only 3 forwards averaged over 18:00 per game or more for Columbus: Nick Foligno, Gustav Nyquist, and Boone Jenner. Everyone guessed those three right?

He won't blow you away with hit totals, but with 43 in 49 games he's teasing fantasy owners that he is inching toward a well-rounded multi-cat forward.

Here's hoping he can elude the injury bug. If he can a stat-line of 25 goals, 50 points, 180 shots, 50 hits seems realistic. Not bad for a player in the 15th round of a draft. This is definitely a player to consider taking a round or two earlier than where he is being drafted. 

Rickard Rakell – RW (LW) Anaheim Ducks

Yahoo ranking – 159 (46th ranked RW)

Yahoo draft –average pick 180.3 (16.4 round)

FHG ranking – 126 (31st ranked RW)

Would the real Rickard Rakell please stand up?

He nailed his fourth year breakout with 69 points in 77 games. Unfortunately for an encore he flubbed to 43 points in 69 games. Those that hoped he would return to that 0.89 point-per-game form for 2019-20 had those hopes crushed quickly and consistently as he instead repeated the 2018-19 season with almost identical stat-lines. Of note, his two year decline in points corresponds with the team's decline in the standings.

So is Rakell really a 50 point winger or a 65-point winger? It's no secret Ryan Getzlaf is in the twilight of his career and Adam Henrique is a really effective second-line center in real life. Neither one will be able to propel him to a 60-point pace. Rakell desperately needs the Ducks' youth movement to take a big step forward this season and provide support and insulation. For two years fantasy owners have waited for Sam Steel, Max Jones, Troy Terry and Maxime Comtois to step into the NHL and make a difference with this team. Until they do…

Rakell isn't the type of player that is going to drive the play shift after shift on his own. He's a fabulous support player with really strong offensive skills, but he needs an elite playmaker that can drive the play for him. He needs this if he is going to come close to his previous 69-point form (Trevor Zegras can't arrive soon enough). He is a mainstay in the Ducks top six. There aren't a lot of first power play, first-line players available in the 16th round of drafts. He provides both with over 18:00 ice-time (second among Ducks forwards) and 2:22 power play ice-time (third among Ducks forwards).

It is Rakell's peripheral value that makes him an attractive late-round option. He has averaged 1.3 hits per game for his career and 2.86, 2.81, 2.99 shots per game over the last three seasons round out his multi-cat value. You can safely write him in for 7 PPP, 70 hits, and 160 shots.

If Anaheim are to pull themselves out of the bottom third of the NHL, both standings and goals for (25th in 2019-20) he is going to be a big benefactor and reason why they do.

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Depending on the depth of your pool, Rakell may be a better watch-list option. Anaheim is a really intriguing team to watch this year and if things start to come together he should be an early season waiver wire grab.

Josh Anderson – RW – Montreal Canadiens

Yahoo ranking – 138(37th ranked RW)

Yahoo draft – average pick – 168 (15 round)

FHG ranking – 194 (57st ranked RW)

This is the first player covered in two weeks that FHG has ranked lower than Yahoo. FHG's ranking is entirely understandable based on how poor Anderson's season was last year and when you make projections you can't ignore the past. But sometimes you just have to go with your gut. 

He managed to play 26 forgettable games last season (one goal, three assists) and left owners dumbfounded with disappointment. He is another player that should have benefited from the extended break. Given all the extra time to rehab and recover he should be fully healthy to start the season. With the trade to Montreal he joins one of the deepest teams in the league. His contract suggests he will be a top-six staple for Montreal. However, Claude Julien could do Claude Julien things and slide him up and down the line up if he doesn't find quick chemistry.

Two things you count on with Anderson regardless of which line he appears on – hits and shots. Forwards that provided you with 200 hits and 200 shots in the past two seasons is a very short list – Alex Ovechkin, Brady Tkachuk, Tom Wilson and Blake Coleman

Over a 56 game schedule, 15-20 goals, 30-35 points, should be the height of offensive expectations. Whereas 130 hits, 130 shots and 40 penalty minutes you can all but pencil in. He's a category stuffing late round pick that should be on everyone's radar.

Anthony Mantha – Detroit Red Wings

Yahoo ranking – 166(50th ranked RW)

Yahoo draft – average pick 159 (14.2 round)

FHG ranking – 121 (30st ranked RW)

At 6-5 and 260 games played we are still two full seasons away from his expected breakout threshold.  That said, he's briefly demonstrated he can play at a dominating level. Fantasy owners should be ecstatic to pull his stat line this late in the draft.

He has been a slow burn for fantasy owners. Finally, it seems he has arrived. If not for injuries, Mantha would have set career highs in goals, assists, points and shots all while playing on a team averaging 2.04 goals per game by the time the league shutdown. Over 82 games he was on pace for 30 goals and 72 points, 260 shots, 65 penalty minutes and 93 hits. But it's all what could have been.

Fast forward to this season and Mantha seems primed for a big one. He has had an enormous amount of time to fully recover from his injury. The Wings have not played in seven months. There has been no need to rush his rehab so he should be 100 percent healthy and ready to go on January 13.

One needs to look no further than Elias Lindholm to understand how much late-round potential Mantha provides. The fact Lindholm does have a 78-point season under his belt is not lost. However, he did follow that up last season with 54 points. Lindholm's average draft position is 72.4 in Yahoo drafts, a full eight rounds earlier.

Yet, based on Mantha's progression and Lindholm's regression last year, no one should be surprised to see these two produce very similar offensive numbers. Add to this equation Mantha will load your squad with more shots, hits and penalty minutes and he may be the most undervalued player in the draft. It should be the final time Mantha finds himself ranked this low.

Thanks for reading. Next week we'll take a look at some left wingers and centers and take a swing for the fence.

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