Looking Ahead: Vegas Gold
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-02-05
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, February 4.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
William Karlsson, C, Vegas Golden Knights (Available in 61 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – With Vegas' great upcoming schedule, Karlsson's a great add in the short term, as Vegas' second-line center continues to play a ton of minutes (19:08/game on average so far) on a dominant team.
Karlsson has only put up two goals and an assist through his first seven games, but in leagues that track peripherals – especially short-handed points and faceoffs – he's a tremendous asset. Karlsson is the rare player that gets top power-play minutes and penalty kill minutes, which means added opportunities for blocks and short-handed points. Playing alongside his long-time wingers in Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, Karlsson won't suddenly become a point-per-game player, but he'll definitely contribute more in the first half of February than someone like Taylor Hall and is worth adding to replace some COVID-list players.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Jesse Puljujarvi, W, Edmonton Oilers (Available in 84 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After getting picked fourth overall in 2016, Puljujarvi had a ton of helium playing on an Oilers team with Connor McDavid; after disappointing with only 37 points in 139 games, he left to play in the Liiga and fantasy players seem to have completely written him off since then.
Puljujarvi was a dominant winger in Finland, taking over five shots/game and putting up just under a point-per-game (53 points in 56 games), and since re-signing in Edmonton he sits third in shot attempts per 60 minutes (13.64 iCF/60) and second in actual shots on goal (11.08/60). Rate stats are always nice to look at, but Puljujarvi had gone under-owned because he was relegated to the fourth line at the start of the season; that's all changed now, as the young Finn is in the best possible spot as the winger to Connor McDavid (and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.) At 5v5 while playing on the top line, Puljujarvi is getting 60% of the shot share and 69% of the expected goal share, so expect the points to start flowing.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Mark Giordano, D, Calgary Flames (Owned in 77 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Given he's no longer the power-play quarterback for Calgary's top unit, there's an argument that Giordano could even be listed as an anchor; Giordano is already 37 years old and he's played 20,000+ minutes in his career, so the drop-off will happen sooner than later.
This season, Giordano is sitting at a quiet 1G-2A through the Flames' first nine games, and he's playing less minutes than he has since his first full year in the league (2009-10) – he's at only 21:34 per night, a far cry from the 23+ of the past 10 seasons. With the Flames' dominance slipping over the past season, Giordano's no longer the +/- monster he was, and although he's great at blocking shots there are better options available on the waiver wire.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Tomas Tatar, W, Montreal Canadiens (Owned in 70 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After going four straight games without a point, Tatar lost his spot on the power play to Josh Anderson, which which means his already-low ceiling is lowered even further. Tatar has only topped 16 minutes in a game once this season – Montreal has three very strong lines and a good fourth line, so playing time is pretty evenly spread – and on the season he's averaging only 15:08/night.
For playing on one of the best even-strength lines in hockey (alongside Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault), Tatar's shot totals this year have been distressingly low, only 14 shots in ten games. He's hit three shots in a game only twice, and he doesn't typically contribute in hits/blocks so he's a major disappointment in leagues that track peripherals.
After putting up 61 points in only 68 games last year and playing in the soft Canadian division, the sky was the limit for Tatar this year and he was drafted as such. Unfortunately for Tatar and those who drafted him, the Canadiens acquiring both Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli have hurt to a large enough degree that Tatar is droppable.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from February 5 to February 17
Vegas – After not having played since January 26, the Golden Knights have a great schedule this period with a full seven games – six of which come at home. Vegas will play one road game in San Jose, and two games each against Los Angeles, Anaheim and Colorado. Vegas has only played seven games so far but have scored four or more in four of those games, so the offensive potential is high. Play them with confidence.
Nashville – The Predators haven't impressed much this season – scoring more than three goals in a game only one – but their stars should be counted on to produce, as the shots and chances are coming but goals are getting converted at only 7.2 percent so far (second-worst in the league.) The Preds should be able to take advantage of a game against Florida and two home games against Detroit, and also have four more games to try to find points in; Nashville will play two games in Dallas and two home games against Tampa to round out the schedule, for seven total games this period.
Ottawa – In leagues that track plus/minus, it might be for the best to ignore this advice – especially given Ottawa's 5v5 goal differential of minus-16 (dead last in the league) – but for those who don't care about plus/minus, the Senators have a great upcoming schedule: two home games against the Oilers, two road games at the Jets, and two road games at Toronto are all very appealing matchups, with their seventh game this period coming against Montreal.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Minnesota – COVID protocols mean the Wild only play three games this period, and that's assuming their first game back (against the Blues on the 11th) plays without issue. Even without postponements, the Wild have been a relative disappointment outside of Kirill Kaprizov, and one of their only other fantasy-relevant players in Matt Dumba was just added to Injured Reserve.
Buffalo – The Sabres have also been hit by COVID – thanks to some poor decisions by the league and the Devils – and as a result will only have four games this period, which includes a back-to-back against the stingy Islanders. Buffalo will also play Washington and while all four games come at home, there are too many factors going against the Sabres to consider using any in fantasy.
Arizona – Losing two games to COVID schedule changes means the Coyotes play only four times this period – all against St. Louis (Editor's note: the March 29 and 31 Coyotes/Blues games have both been moved up to February 6 and 8, due to both teams having cancelled games.) Arizona has struggled to score this season, scoring more than three goals in only two of their first nine games and getting shut out twice. The higher-end Coyotes can be rolled out (Christian Dvorak, Nick Schmaltz and Conor Garland) but anyone else should be avoided.
February 5 to February 11 |
Best Bets |
VGK 4.725 – – Home LAK LAK ANH ANH |
FLA 4.62 – Home NSH DET DET TBL |
LAK 4.42 – Away VGK VGK – Home SJS SJS |
ANH 4.42 – Away VGK VGK- Home SJS SJS |
TBL 4.3 – Away NSH NSH FLA- Home DET |
Steer Clear |
MIN 0.945 – Away – Home STL |
BUF 1.1025 – Away – Home WSH |
ARI 1.71 – Away COL COL- Home |
NYR 1.89 – Away – Home NYI BOS |
BOS 1.995 – Away PHI NYR – Home |
February 6 to February 12 |
Best Bets |
OTT 4.2575 – Away WPG – Home MTL EDM EDM |
EDM 4.2275 – Away CGY OTT OTT MTL – Home |
COL 3.6 – Away STL STL – Home ARI ARI |
VGK 3.57 – Away – Home LAK ANH ANH |
FLA 3.5175 – Away – Home DET DET TBL |
Steer Clear |
MIN 0.945 – Away – Home STL |
BUF 1.1025 – Away – Home WSH |
ARI 1.71 – Away COL COL – Home |
NJD 2 – Away PHI – Home PIT |
BOS 2.09 – Away NYR NYR- Home |
February 7 to February 13 |
Best Bets |
VGK 4.71 – Away SJS- Home LAK ANH ANH |
LAK 4.625 – Away VGK – Home SJS SJS MIN |
NSH 4.515 – Away – Home TBL TBL DET DET |
FLA 4.515 – Away – Home DET DET TBL TBL |
PHI 4.305 – Away WSH WSH – Home NJD NJD |
Steer Clear |
ANH 1.9 – Away VGK VGK – Home |
PIT 1.9475 – Away NJD NYI – Home |
MIN 1.99 – Away LAK- Home STL |
BUF 2.205 – Away – Home WSH WSH |
ARI 2.655 – Away COL COL – Home STL |
February 8 to February 14 |
Best Bets |
NSH 4.515 – – Home TBL TBL DET DET |
VGK 4.5 – Away SJS – Home ANH ANH COL |
OTT 4.105 – Away WPG WPG – Home EDM EDM |
WSH 4.09 – Away BUF BUF PIT- Home PHI |
TBL 4.085 – Away NSH NSH FLA FLA – Home |
Steer Clear |
MIN 1.99 – Away LAK – Home STL |
ANH 1.9 – Away VGK VGK – Home |
BUF 2.205 – Away – Home WSH WSH |
STL 1.9 – Away MIN ARI – Home |
CAR 2.565 – Away CBJ DAL DAL – Home |
February 9 to February 15 |
Best Bets |
VGK 4.5 – Away SJS – Home ANH ANH COL |
NSH 4.3725 – Away DAL- Home TBL DET DET |
SJS 4.3475 – Away LAK LAK – Home VGK ANH |
WPG 4.4675 – Away CGY EDM- Home OTT OTT |
DAL 4.2525 – Away – Home CHI CAR CAR NSH |
Steer Clear |
NYR 1.785 – Away – Home BOS BOS |
MIN 1.99 – Away LAK – Home STL |
CAR 2.655 – Away DAL DAL – Home CBJ |
STL 2.755 – Away MIN ARI ARI- Home |
COL 2.84 – Away VGK – Home ARI ARI |
February 10 to February 16 |
Best Bets |
VGK 4.2375 – Away SJS – Home ANH COL COL |
NSH 4.23 – Away DAL DAL- Home DET DET |
DAL 4.2 – Away – Home CAR CAR NSH NSH |
BUF 4.2 – Away – Home WSH WSH NYI NYI |
BOS 4.1475 – Away NYR NYR NYI – Home NJD |
Steer Clear |
EDM 2.0475 – Away MTL – Home WPG |
ANH 2.09 – Away VGK SJS – Home |
CAR 2.655 – Away DAL DAL – Home CBJ |
NJD 2.7075 – Away PHI PHI BOS – Home |
ARI 2.745 – Away COL – Home STL STL |
February 11 to February 17 |
Best Bets |
WPG 4.515 – Away EDM EDM- Home OTT OTT |
DET 4.305 – Away NSH NSH – Home CHI CHI |
VGK 4.2375 – Away SJS – Home ANH COL COL |
NSH 4.23 – Away DAL DAL – Home DET DET |
DAL 4.2 – Away – Home CAR CAR NSH NSH |
Steer Clear |
NYR 1.9425 – Away – Home BOS PHI |
ANH 2.09 – Away VGK SJS – Home |
MTL 2.1475 – Away TOR – Home EDM |
NJD 2.7075 – Away PHI PHI BOS – Home |
ARI 2.745 – Away COL – Home STL STL |