Looking Ahead: February 12 – February 24
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-02-12
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, Feb. 10th
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Filip Hronek, D, Detroit Red Wings (Available in 63 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although he's been flipping between the first and second power-play units (which seems typical of a Jeff Blashill-coached team), Filip Hronek still has three power-play assists this year to go with three even-strength assists. While six points in 14 games isn't the most enticing stat line, Hronek has taken 31 shots in those games (2.2/game) and has yet to score, and he's a player who converted on 7.6 and 6.8 percent of shots over the past two seasons.
Detroit's upcoming schedule is an appealing one (see below) and Hronek's upside is strong especially in peripheral leagues – with plus/minus excepted, as he does play for Detroit. Hronek's adding at least one hit+blk every game along with his shots on goal, and he's averaging just under 24 minutes per game at 23:53. That's the most of any Detroit player by a clear three minutes, and his upside is higher than anyone available on the wire.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Duncan Keith, D, Chicago Blackhawks (Available in 70 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – At the ripe age of 37(!), Duncan Keith is carrying the load for the Blackhawks in terms of ice time, averaging 24:09/game on the year but topping 25:00 in four of his last five games. That hasn't really shown in the points category yet – Keith has just five assists in 14 games – but he's taking 2.2 shots/game and plays on the top power play while Chicago waits for Adam Boqvist to emerge.
Keith obviously has more value in leagues that track peripherals – beyond the decent shot numbers for a defenseman, he also blocks two shots per game – and while many will look past him on the wire, any player seeing that much time including power play will eventually pay off.
The Odd-Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Travis Konecny, W, Philadelphia Flyers (Owned in 86 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although Konecny started the year hot – a hat-trick in his second game helped him to a 5G-2A start in his first five games – he's since cooled off in a big way, with only one assist since. Konecny's played seven games in that time, was healthy scratched for a game, and has yet to see 18 minutes of ice time (current avg. is 15:35).
A diminished shot rate is one of the issues hurting Konecny right now, with just 16 shots in 12 games, so the fact that he's scored five goals (31.3 shooting percentage) means the goals will slow even more than they have. Konecny also doesn't block shots or hit, averaging around 1.5 combined per game, so in peripheral leagues he's a tough sell. With Philadelphia's horrible schedule through the next two weeks, Konecny can get dropped in shallow non-keeper leagues, and benched in deeper ones.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Timo Meier, W, San Jose Sharks (Owned in 69 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Coming into the season, expectations were high Timo Meier after putting up 52 goals in 148 games over the past two seasons (115 points total), but playing low minutes on a struggling San Jose team is hurting in a big way. Meier is averaging just 15:13 per game and is playing on the second power play unit, and of the 126 minutes he's played at 5v5, he's spent 44 percent playing with Dylan Gambrell and/or Noah Gregor – not exactly a recipe for production. Meier also doesn't contribute in the blocks category, doesn't score much on the power play, and last year was a -22; he does shoot at a decent rate, currently over three shots per game, and in leagues that track hits he has more value.
The positive side for Meier owners is that he's currently shooting only 5.9 percent – career average of 10 percent – so there's positive regression expected, but the lack of contributions in peripheral stats combined with the low ice time and horrible plus-minus mean there are better options available. He's a popular name so he could still have trade value to players not paying attention.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from February 12th to February 24th
Toronto – With the maximum seven games, Toronto's a lock to pay dividends this period, but even if they were only playing five or six they'd have to be a strong consideration – they've scored less than three goals only once this season (out of 14), and have hit four goals or more in seven games. They'll play Ottawa three times, all at home, with their remaining four games split against Montreal and Calgary.
Washington – Washington plays six games this period and finally have a full roster with no one on the COVID list, which makes them very appealing. The Caps haven't had any trouble scoring this season – scoring at least twice every game and hitting six goals twice – and with games against Pittsburgh (three times), Buffalo and the Rangers they should continue to find the back of the net.
Detroit – The Red Wings aren't the most offensively-gifted team – they've only scored three or more goals in four of 14 games this season, yikes – but their schedule this period is pretty strong: their only road game comes against Nashville, and their remaining games come against Chicago and Florida (twice each). Chicago and Florida have both been strong in net, but allow a ton of chances against and it's only a matter of time before the cracks appear in Kevin Lankinen.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Philadelphia – COVID protocols mean that the Flyers only get to play three games this period, with their next game not coming until February 18th. That's really the only reason to avoid Philadelphia players, as they've been scoring consistently and just had Sean Couturier return in their last game; the Flyers will play two home games against the Rangers, and one game against the Bruins which is an outdoor game on Lake Tahoe.
Minnesota – Yet again, the Wild are a team to avoid thanks to COVID, as they haven't played a game since February 2nd and won't play again until the 16th. They'll play three games all on the road, against the Kings once and the Ducks twice. With 12 players still on the COVID list, it's still a question of whether they'll even be playing their next games as scheduled.
New Jersey – New Jersey is in the same boat as Minnesota and Philly, with COVID postponements wreaking havoc on their schedule: the Devils' last game came back in January, and their next game won't come until Feb. 16th against the Rangers. The Devils will get to play four games at least so they're a touch more appealing than the Wild or Flyers, and two of those games come against Buffalo which is great, but they should still be avoided.