Looking Ahead: Devilish Add
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-02-19
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, February 17.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Ty Smith, D, New Jersey Devils (Available in 63 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Through the first ten games of his NHL career, Ty Smith has amassed a fantastic line of 2G-6A and although that's on 10.5% shooting, the first-round pick out of Spokane has always been a point producer: in 238 career WHL games, Smith put up 233 points, a rate of 0.97 points per game; if you remove his rookie WHL year, the numbers are even more eye-popping: 1.16 points per game over 172 games.
Smith brings that pedigree to a Devils team that looked set on the point – New Jersey has P.K. Subban, Damon Severson, Sami Vatanen and Will Butcher who have all had cracks at quarterbacking the top power play – but lack of production by those four have given Smith a tremendous opportunity. Smith's role has jumped from a third pair/second-unit power play guy in his first five games – never topping 19 minutes of ice time and sitting below 13 minutes twice – all the way up to where he is now, playing on the top pair and quarterbacking the top PP. Smith's last five games have seen him play between 16:39 and 23:51.
With the Devils' strong schedule (see below) and Smith's current role and production, he's a lock to contribute over the next few weeks and possibly beyond.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Chris Driedger, G, Florida Panthers (Available in 56 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After banging the drum for Driedger last season, he's finally getting the attention he deserves, and realistically should have been featured here much earlier than by the time he was 44% on Yahoo, but he was always a speculative add given the large contract of the "starting" goalie in front of him.
Thankfully for those long on Driedger and for players in leagues where Driedger is available, it finally seems like Florida's figured out what to do between the pipes, as Driedger will make his third start in a row – for the first time in his career! – Friday night. Playing on a relatively-poor defensive team, Driedger's allowed 2.39 goals/game so far but has a sparkling 0.924 save percentage with six of his seven starts qualifying as "Quality Starts" (a Rob Vollman stat where a start with save percentage greater than average is a Quality Start.)
Looking at fancier stats, Driedger is currently 12th in the league in Goals Saved Above Average/60 minutes (min. 200 minutes) at 0.57, which is a sharp contrast from his competition, as Sergei Bobrovsky is 49th at -0.64; this isn't out of the ordinary, as last year Driedger actually led the league at 0.94 compared to Bob's -0.32 (54th out of 73.) The issue with Driedger for fantasy was always the question of whether he'd get a shot, and it seems like he finally is so he needs to be picked up immediately.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Chris Kreider, W, New York Rangers (Owned in 52 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Putting up 97 points over the past two seasons (in 143 games) playing top minutes with Mika Zibanejad must have convinced the Rangers' brass of something, because Kreider signed a juicy contract last trade deadline to the tune of seven years, 45.5 million dollars, and that usually signals to fantasy players that a player will be relatively safe in keeping their role and ice time. Fortunately, that's true! Unfortunately, Kreider still hasn't done anything of note and has been a massive disappointment!
On the season, Kreider's put up a putrid 4G-1A line in 14 games while sitting at a minus-6, and he's managed to score those four goals on only 28 shots (14.3% shooting.) While Kreider's career average shooting percentage is actually just a touch less at 13.4% – he scores a lot of net-front goals, which leads to a higher-than average percentage – it's still a concern that he's only getting two shots off per game.
The reason that Kreider's an Odd Man Out and not a full-blown Anchor is that the winger does a fine job of adding peripheral stats (outside of plus/minus), combining for 44 hits and blocks so far this year, so there's some marginal value for him in leagues where that's at a premium. His ice time is also at the highest per game that it's ever been in his career (currently 17:31/game) and he probably won't lose his top-line role any time soon, but the lack of production is a major concern and when combined with the Rangers' putrid schedule (see below) he can be benched for the foreseeable future.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Kevin Fiala, W, Minnesota Wild (Owned in 54 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After an electric second half of the 2019-20 season, Kevin Fiala was a very popular breakout pick this year – he had just put up 54 points in 64 games with the Wild, and put 19 shots on goal in the Wild's four playoff games (scoring three times with an assist) – but between COVID, a boarding suspension, and the emergence of Kirill Kaprizov on the same wing, Fiala's impact is muted and major cause for concern.
During his breakout season, Fiala shot 3 percent better than his career average (13.1 vs. 10.1), and a whopping 18 of his 54 points came on the power play. Even more damning is the fact that Fiala collected a point on 83.33 percent of goals scored when he was on the ice at 5v5, 20th in the league in that category – and of players with at least 30 5v5 points, Fiala's IPP was sixth-highest. That's a massive jump from the two seasons prior, where his IPP was a more realistic 70.24 percent.
There are a lot of reasons to be bullish on Fiala in future years – he's only 24 years old, he was drafted 11th overall, he's scored 0.69 points per game in Minnesota – but relative to his ownership and expectations, Fiala will be a major disappointment for fantasy players this year. Fiala also doesn't contribute in peripheral categories to a great degree as he doesn't kill penalties, so in leagues that track those stats he'll be even more disappointing. He's not droppable because he was revered heading into the season, but lower expectations and in yearly leagues see if he can be moved.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from February 19 to March 3
Calgary – The Flames have seven games during this period, with their stiffest competition coming against the Maple Leafs – not exactly the late '90s Red Wings – and a very enticing three games against the Senators. The only downside to Calgary players this period is that they have two separate back-to-backs, playing Edmonton twice in a row at home and then playing road games in Toronto and Ottawa on back-to-back nights. Although the Flames have been inconsistent at finding the back of the net this season, there's no greater opportunity than over the next two weeks.
New Jersey – After a two-week COVID break, the Devils are back to playing hockey again which means there are a lot of games to play in a condensed schedule: New Jersey plays seven games this period, three each against the Sabres and Capitals before finishing the period against the Islanders. The Devils' roster is a mish-mash at the moment as they're missing key players in Nico Hischier, Nikita Gusev and Travis Zajac, but all are expected back and the Devils didn't struggle to score in their first game out of their break by potting five goals against the Rangers.
Columbus – From the time Patrik Laine's been in the lineup for Columbus (February 2), the Blue Jackets have scored 27 goals in seven games, which is a full 1.4 goals per game more than their season average pre-Laine. Columbus isn't a team to target based on volume – only six games this period – but their production of late combined with soft opponents makes them very appealing; they'll play Chicago twice, Nashville three times, and the Red Wings once during this stretch.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Philadelphia – After an 11-day COVID break, the Flyers' schedule should have been an attractive one given the crunch, but because the Flyers will be playing an outdoor game at Lake Tahoe, it wasn't possible to get more games in. Philadelphia plays only five games this period, which includes a back-to-back in Buffalo; the Flyers' remaining games come against Boston (the outdoor game), the Rangers, and Pittsburgh.
Boston – The Bruins are in the same boat as the Flyers with the outdoor game hurting their fantasy potential, as there's a three-day break for the Bruins after the outdoor game. Boston plays five games between the 19th and March 3, with all but one coming on the road; outside of playing the Flyers at Lake Tahoe, their opponents will be the Islanders (once), the Rangers (twice), and the Capitals (once, at home.)
NY Rangers – With very poor starts coming from Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, the Rangers have struggled to score this season: in 14 games so far, they've been shutout three times and have only hit four or more goals in a game three times. While games against the Flyers and Sabres should help that along, the Rangers only have three additional games this period – against the Bruins (twice) and Capitals. Don't expect much from the Rags.
February 19 to February 25 |
Best Bets |
CGY 5.33 – Away EDM TOR TOR OTT- Home EDM |
FLA 5.115 – Away DET DET – Home DAL DAL DAL |
CAR 5.1125 – Away TBL TBL- Home CHI CHI TBL |
DET 4.515 – Away – Home FLA FLA NSH NSH |
WSH 4.41 – Away – Home NYR NJD PIT PIT |
Steer Clear |
NYR 1.9475 – Away WSH PHI – Home |
BOS 1.9525 – Away NYI- Home PHI |
PHI 1.9625 – Away BOS – Home NYR |
LAK 2.565 – Away ARI STL STL – Home |
VGK 2.85 – Away COL COL SJS- Home |
February 20 to February 26 |
Best Bets |
ARI 4.515 – – Home LAK ANH ANH COL |
WSH 4.41 – Home NYR NJD PIT PIT |
MTL 4.385 – Away OTT OTT WPG – Home TOR |
NJD 4.3525 – Away WSH BUF – Home BUF BUF |
MIN 4.2425 – Away ANH SJS COL – Home LAK |
Steer Clear |
PHI 1.9625 – Away BOS – Home NYR |
WPG 2.1 – Away VAN – Home MTL |
CHI 2.6125 – Away CAR CBJ CBJ – Home |
NYR 2.84 – Away WSH PHI – Home BOS |
VGK 2.85 – Away COL COL SJS – Home |
February 21 to February 27 |
Best Bets |
CGY 4.37 – Away TOR TOR OTT OTT- Home |
ARI 4.305 – Home ANH ANH COL COL |
OTT 4.305 – Away – Home MTL MTL CGY CGY |
MIN 4.305 – Away SJS COL – Home LAK LAK |
WSH 4.3 – Away NJD- Home NJD PIT PIT |
Steer Clear |
NYR 1.8425 – Away PHI – Home BOS |
ANH 2.76 – Away ARI ARI – Home VGK |
PIT 2.8975 – Away WSH WSH NYI- Home |
CHI 2.97 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home DET |
BOS 2.9975 – Away NYI NYR – Home PHI |
February 22 to February 28 |
Best Bets |
BUF 5.2025 – Away NYI NJD – Home NJD PHI PHI |
NJD 4.405 – Away BUF – Home BUF WSH WSH |
CGY 4.37 – Away TOR TOR OTT OTT – Home |
ARI 4.305 – Away – Home ANH ANH COL COL |
MIN 4.305 – Away SJS COL – Home LAK LAK |
Steer Clear |
NYR 2.735 – Away PHI – Home BOS BOS |
ANH 2.76 – Away ARI ARI – Home VGK |
BOS 2.9925 – Away NYI NYR NYR- Home |
MTL 3.04 – Away OTT WPG WPG – Home |
VGK 3.0875 – Away COL SJS ANH – Home |
February 23 to March 1 |
Best Bets |
CGY 4.465 – Away TOR OTT OTT OTT- Home |
EDM 4.305 – Away VAN VAN – Home TOR TOR |
CBJ 4.305 – Away NSH NSH – Home CHI CHI |
NJD 4.405 – Away BUF – Home BUF WSH WSH |
BUF 4.3 – Away NJD – Home NJD PHI PHI |
Steer Clear |
NYR 2.735 – Away PHI – Home BOS BOS |
ANH 2.85 – Away ARI – Home VGK STL |
SJS 2.94 – Away – Home VGK STL COL |
LAK 2.945 – Away STL MIN MIN – Home |
BOS 2.9925 – Away NYI NYR NYR – Home |
February 24 to March 2 |
Best Bets |
CAR 4.8925 – Away TBL TBL FLA FLA NSH- Home |
CGY 4.465 – Away TOR OTT OTT OTT – Home |
WPG 4.41 – Away – Home MTL MTL VAN VAN |
CBJ 4.41 – Away NSH NSH – Home CHI DET |
BUF 4.3 – Away NYR- Home NJD PHI PHI |
Steer Clear |
ANH 2.85 – Away ARI – Home VGK STL |
SJS 2.94 – Away – Home VGK STL COL |
LAK 2.945 – Away STL MIN MIN – Home |
BOS 2.9925 – Away NYI NYR NYR – Home |
VAN 3.0025 – Away WPG WPG- Home EDM |
February 25 to March 3 |
Best Bets |
VGK 4.5425 – Away SJS ANH – Home MIN MIN |
EDM 4.4625 – Away VAN – Home TOR TOR TOR |
WPG 4.41 – Away – Home MTL MTL VAN VAN |
CBJ 4.41 – Away NSH NSH – Home CHI DET |
BUF 4.3 – Away NYR – Home NJD PHI PHI |
Steer Clear |
DAL 2.85 – Away FLA TBL TBL – Home |
TBL 2.8875 – Away – Home CAR DAL DAL |
ARI 2.935 – Away LAK- Home COL COL |
ANH 2.94 – Away – Home VGK STL STL |
FLA 2.94 – Away – Home DAL CAR CAR |