Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Here though, instead of there being three bowls of porridge, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating just how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), or how cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or how “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With the tentative end of the season just over a month away, it's more important than ever to figure out what lies ahead for your players, whether it's to gear up for fantasy playoffs, to think about keepers, or to make trades. While I can't cover everyone, hopefully this will help you reach the right decisions with respect to three players, who this month are Joel Farabee, Ryan O'Reilly, and Jake Guentzel. To see if your finger is on the fantasy pulse, take a moment to guess which of the three you believe is too hot, who's too cold, and who's just right, then read on to learn if you scored a hat trick with your guesses.

Joel Farabee (stats for him and the other two players are current through April 3rd games)

Prior to this season Farabee had fared well after being drafted 14th overall in 2018, playing point per game hockey in college in 2018-19 then spending nearly all of 2019-20 in the NHL, where he posted a respectable 21 points in 52 games. Given the forward depth on the Flyers however, and Alain Vigneault not being known as a particularly offense-friendly coach, expectations were modest for Farabee going into 2020-21. Instead, Farabee posted four points in the first game of the season and since then has kept up a strong scoring pace. Is this a case of short-term unsustainably strong play? Just the opposite, as what we're seeing is likely him just scratching the surface.

Much has been made of Farabee's high Shooting Percentage, but the reality is he just might be a very accurate shooter. For one, he's tied for second most posts hit with five, meaning he was inches from a handful of additional goals and an even higher SH%. Also, comparing his SH% and SOG rate for 2020-21 (his age 21 campaign and second in the NHL) to those of other wingers who also had 0.75+ points per game in their age 21 season occurring in their second NHL campaign, the plus side is that they're similar to those of Alex DeBrincat but not so encouragingly comparable to those of Jordan Eberle: SH% (18.6% for DeBrincat, 18.9% for Eberle, 18.4% for Farabee), SOG per game (DeBrincat 2.68, Eberle 2.31, 2.17 Farabee). How about a tiebreaker? Another player, also at age 21 and in his second NHL campaign, had a 15.9% SH%, averaged 2.33 SOG per game, and tallied 0.79 points per game. Who was he? Oh, just some guy by the name of Nikita Kucherov! So Farabee's elevated SH% might be a barometer for becoming very successful more so than a marker for unsustainability.

What's also encouraging is that Farabee is a driver of scoring, with a 77.1% IPP. Normally 70% is a number I like to see from young players to suggest they can succeed in the long term; but Farabee's IPP is even higher and this is despite playing predominantly with Sean Couturier and James van Riemsdyk, who each happen to be in the midst of career best campaigns in terms of points per game. The takeaway has to be it is Farabee who's elevating the games of Couturier and JVR as much if not more so than the reverse, and it bodes very well for Farabee's future.

Another factor showing Farabee's talent is his 38.5% secondary assists percentage, meaning that, of his 27 points, 22 (or 81%) have been goals or primary assists. Of those who have 14+ goals and 27+ points on the season, the only ones with a higher percentage of primary points are Brad Marchand, Auston Matthews, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Evander Kane, Sebastian Aho, and David Pastrnak. Pretty nice company for the most part.

Something else notable about Farabee is his feast or famine scoring patterns. He has a point in only 45.7% of (16 out of 35) of his games, with more than half his points having come in just five contests (three two-point games, two three-point games, and one four-point effort). What this shows is Farabee already has very explosive talent, yet thus far he lacks a consistency level that should come with more experience, but not at the expense of his ability to score in droves. Also helping Farabee is the fact that his ice time has been climbing, in addition to his six PPPts which put him tied for 91st among forwards despite his PPTOI only ranking him 130th. Long story short, in the normal course Farabee's points should rise as he matures and "shows up" for more games plus due to increased ice times at ES and on the PP.

One by-product of Farabee's high scoring despite low ice time has been his 2.8 points per 60 minutes, which is the second highest rate (behind Jason Robertson) of anyone his age or younger this season. Not only that, but the forwards who averaged at least 2.8 points per 60 minutes at age 21 or younger in 2019-20 or 20018-19 were Andrei Svechnikov, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Pettersson, Sebastian Aho, and DeBrincat in 2018-19. These are very good players in which to find company. 

When I decided to include Farabee in this column, I was almost positive he'd be deemed too hot, if for no other reason than his SH%. But as we saw, a percentage that high isn't without precedent and could be even higher. After digging deeper to examine other factors, as well as player comparables, they point to Farabee as a player on the rise who should even be doing better now. Accordingly, his 2020-21 has been TOO COLDwith a rating of 2.25, as we'll need to get used to him scoring at a 70-75+ point pace going forward.

Ryan O'Reilly

After seven seasons in a row sporting a scoring rate between 55 and 70 while playing for Colorado and then the Sabres, O'Reilly ("ROR") tallied 77 points in 2018-19 in his age 28 season, which also happened to be his first with St. Louis. After producing at a slightly lower 70-point pace in 2019-20, ROR is back up to a similar pace as 2018-19. So does that mean 2019-20 was an aberration? Yes, but only because it appears ROR should be scoring at an even lower ~65-point pace.

One key is this season ROR's OZ% is 49.7%, which, by no means elevated, would represent a high for ROR since 2011-12. Much of this was likely due to the prolonged absence of Vladimir Tarasenko, who, thus far for 2020-21, has an OZ% of 51.8%, which is by no means sustainable since Tarasenko's OZ% was in the range of 62.5% to 68.6% in four of the last five seasons and ROR being more of a two-way player. Although the two have been paired over the last few games, chances are that's to spark Tarasenko and won't last. What will likely happen is as Tarasenko gets into form, his line – without ROR – will once again start seeing the lion's share of offensive zone starts at even strength. In turn, that will inevitably lead to ROR seeing his OZ% drop and, with that, his production rate as well.

Also, despite being a center, only once in his past four seasons did ROR see his overall IPP rise above a 62.9% to 63.5% rate, and that was in 2018-19 when he scored a career best and his IPP was still only 70.0% overall. This season, however, it's 79.1% overall, buoyed by a 100% – yes, you read that correctly – IPP at even strength, which also is the ES IPP of his frequent linemate David Perron. For even one of them to have such a high IPP is beyond belief, yet for both to sport a perfect ES IPP, while attesting to their chemistry, it underscores that both are performing unsustainably above expectations.

On top of these factors, ROR sports a secondary assist percentage of 52.4%, which, while not unsustainably high in and of itself, would be by far the highest for ROR since 2013-14, with his average in the subsequent seasons being 37.5%. A leopard doesn't suddenly change its spots at age 30, which means ROR should see fewer secondary assists over the course of the rest of 2020-21 and, in turn, fewer points.

Moreover, since Tarasenko's return to the line-up a few weeks ago, ROR has seen fewer PP minutes per contest, which is likely not a coincidence. While Tarasenko should help boost the team's PP scoring on the whole, in doing so he'll also grab his fair share of PPPts, which in turn won't go to ROR. Also, Torey Krug's PP IPP for 2020-21 thus far is 60.0%, which might seem high for a rearguard but lags behind his 68.3% and 69.8% rates from his two most recent seasons and is likely to climb as he continues to adjust to being in St. Louis. Given all this, we should not expect ROR to tally PPPts to offset the likely drop in scoring he stands to experience.

ROR is also shooting the puck far less than he did in his prior best 2018-19 season, which marked the culmination of four straight campaigns that saw his SOG per game increase. Although ROR's SOG rate is higher this season than last, his shooting percentage of 15.9% is quite a bit above – in fact, nearly 50% above – his career rate of 10.7% upon entering this season and a departure from the 10.2-10.6% rate he had in three of his past four seasons, and even higher than the 12.0% he sported in 2018-19.

Overall, ROR is a fine fantasy asset; however, this season he's clearly overachieved while also benefitting from the absence of Vladimir Tarasenko. As Tarasenko – and even Torey Krug – get more comfortable and back to their usual selves, ROR's scoring, which was being unsustainably boosted by a high OZ% and secondary assists percentage, and by an ES IPP that has led to easily more than a handful of points he shouldn't have received, will dip, likely to a level even lower than it was last season, which also was one where Tarasenko was largely absent. Look for ROR to score at closer to a 65-point pace over the rest of this season, making him a sell high now and in keepers. Accordingly, ROR's 2020-21 has been TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 8.75.

Jake Guentzel

After posting 76 points in 2018-19 then scoring at a 90-point pace in 2019-20, including 28 points in his last 20 games, the Pens finally had – in Guentzel – their first younger elite wing since James Neal was in Pittsburgh from 2011-12 to 2013-14. So far for 2020-21, Guentzel has seen his scoring fluctuate between his high of 2019-20 and his lower rate of 2018-19. Who then is the real Guentzel? Most likely it's what we're seeing now, namely someone who should be right around the point per game level.

Guentzel's ice times, at ES and on the PP, are almost identical to those of 2019-20, as is his shooting percentage. The big change is his SOG rate, which was 3.3 per game in 2019-20 but has dipped to 2.6 per game, which is lower than 2018-19. How is it that he's faring better than 2018-19? By tallying a lot more points on the PP, as it took him only until game 28 to equal the number of PPPts he amassed in 39 games last season, and game 29 to equal his output in all 82 contests from 2018-19.

Moreover, Guentzel's other metrics are very much in line with his averages from 2018-19 and 2019-20, from secondary assists percentage (40.9%, versus 41.6% average) to offensive zone starting percentage (60.6% versus 62.14% average). As such, him scoring this season at a rate that is roughly in the middle of what he produced in these two seasons seems about right.

It's also notable that just as Guentzel is coming into his own – essentially hitting his peak – the team around him is aging, including his centre Sidney Crosby. Why does that matter? Oh, because Crosby has been on the ice for all but one of Guentzel's 38 points this season! That's a big deal, as out of Guentzel's 43 points last season, 26 came when Evgeni Malkin was on the ice, versus only 11 with Crosby.

In other words, Guentzel wasn't as beholden to one player as he is now. Although Crosby still seems like he will perform at a high level for at least a few more seasons, it's notable that he's less explosive, as he's scored in over 70% of his games, versus 61% last season. Thus far, Crosby is still scoring at a 95-point pace, but the signs are starting to appear that Crosby might be due to slow sooner rather than later. Still, if/when that occurs, Guentzel, who clearly has talent in his own right, can hopefully pick up the slack and help them both maintain their current scoring rates.

That Crosby is so key to Guentzel's production this season might come across as a concern because of a certain player comparable. Guentzel cumulatively averaged 0.4 goals per game in his first four seasons, albeit at ages 22-25. Going back to 2000-01, two other forwards likewise averaged 0.4+ goals per game in 200+ games over their first four seasons despite being age 22+ in their first. One of them was Jonathan Cheechoo, who (in)famously went from 56 goals in a season by playing alongside arguably the best center in the game at the time in Joe Thornton, to being out of the NHL by age 30. The other was Thomas Vanek, who posted 84 points in his second season then had a few more campaigns with scoring rates in the 70s. By and large though, Vanek's follow up seasons were a disappointment. Despite the comparable, I think it is safe to say Guentzel is not Cheechoo 2.0, as Cheechoo's scoring fell as quickly as it rose – that is, Cheechoo averaged 0.4+ goals per game due to 93 goals in two seasons whereas Guentzel had been more consistent. Although Crosby will invariably start to decline before too long, Guentzel should contribute enough to keep their totals close to what they are now. In terms of what happens after Crosby really slows or retires, we can look to Vanek and him scoring in the 70s or lower as an indication of what Guentzel would likely accomplish were he not sharing the ice with someone of Crosby's current caliber.

Has Guentzel benefitted by playing with Crosby? No question. But Guentzel also is helping make Crosby better too. It's a symbiotic relationship, such that chances are they can keep up the pace we're seeing from each of them for at least the next couple of seasons. As such, Guentzel's 2020-21 is JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 6.0, suggesting point per game scoring for at least the next few seasons.

************

Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag column is just a few weeks away and already staring to fill, so be sure to send question(s) to me for in depth, deep dive answers. To get your question(s) to me, you can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) send them to me via an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.