Frozen Tools Forensics: Deployment and Ice Time Changes in the Playoffs

Chris Kane

2021-06-25

Now that we have wrapped up our 'Most Valuable" series we are going to turn our attention to playoff results. (To review the season's most valuable players check it out here for centermen, left wings, right wings, defensemen, and goalies). We won’t focus on matchup results so much as on what various players accomplished during those matchups. The playoffs are obviously still in progress but there are enough teams eliminated already that we can get started on this miniseries. We will be starting with the teams eliminated in the first round. This week on Frozen Tool Forensics:

First Round Exits Part One – West Coast/Canadian Division

Given that many of the playoff sample sizes are so small, it is hard to draw too large a conclusion from most of them. We will be touching on point production, but our main focus will be usage and deployment. We want to answer the question – were players used in a different way during the playoffs that can give us any hints as to how they might be used next season?

To answer this question, we are going to turn to the Time on Ice Reports from the report page. By running and then exporting the same report for both the regular season and the playoffs to date we can get the same data from those two periods. We then combine sources and filter by the team of focus to get an idea of who on each team benefited and who lost out.

We will start with St. Louis.

St. Louis

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
COLTON PARAYKODSTL44325:4834.921:208.1
TOREY KRUGDSTL440.624:2037.122:333.5
IVAN BARBASHEVCSTL425.115:0421.913:213.2
ROBERT THOMASCSTL425.215:0922.413:362.8
TYLER BOZAKCSTL42716:1324.414:552.6

The above table features two sets of data. We have playoff data and regular season data. For each time frame, we have the percent of the total time played and the total time. Both are included as reviewing just totals can be dramatically influenced by long overtime games in the playoffs. We control for that a little bit by looking at one team at a time and by organizing the data by the percent changed, the column all the way to the right. This was also repeated for power-play time, which is referenced for specific players, but not listed in the article.

In this case Colton Parayko saw the largest percent increase in his time on ice going from just under 35% of the total time to 43%. That resulted in an increase of almost four and a half minutes of total ice time. It was the most time Parayko has seen in a playoff run to date. He didn't do much with it though, with only one point and a pretty comparable (if good) shots per game rate.

The remainder of the top five, being centermen and defensemen around three percent is not surprising given the increased pressure on winning faceoffs and D matchups during the playoffs. Robert Thomas's increased role is potentially interesting, given his pedigree, but the increase is actually pretty much in line with what Thomas has gotten in previous playoff experiences. He did put up three points in the four games, skating mostly with Mike Hoffman and Tyler Bozak and got some top power-play time. It was the highest point pace of his playoff runs, and the top power-play time is alluring, but with such a small sample size there isn't really much we can project forward. It is nice to see him get the time though and definitely bears watching over the off season and through camp.

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
ZACH SANFORDLSTL417.610:3224.414:53-6.8
KYLE CLIFFORDLSTL413.27:5716.39:56-3.1
ROBERT BORTUZZODSTL221.212:4323.314:10-2.1
SAMMY BLAISLSTL418.611:0819.812:04-1.2
VLADIMIR TARASENKORSTL428.316:5928.817:25-0.5

On the flip side it is not encouraging to see Zach Sanford lose almost seven percent. Dropping down to 10.5 minutes is really not a good sign. Playing out of the top six, and with only three shots over the course of four games is not the vote of confidence we would be hoping to see from a guy who showed flashes of relevance in 19-20.

Minnesota

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
RYAN HARTMANRMIN728.317:0624.815:043.5
RYAN SUTERDMIN739.824:0336.522:113.3
MATT DUMBADMIN739.123:3936.622:172.5
JARED SPURGEONDMIN737.922:5536.322:051.6
JOEL ERIKSSON EKCMIN729.517:5028.117:031.4

Not a lot of big changes in Minnesota during the playoff run. Ryan Hartman saw the largest increase in time (and probably the second-best opportunity on this list) – up 3.5 percent to about 28 percent of his team’s total time. The good news for Hartman is that is much better than his previous playoff runs, and better than his regular season. In fact, he got a pretty plum opportunity, lining up with Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov. The bad news is that he was still only able to put up two points with the time and linemates and Kaprizov also suffered only registering three points in the seven-game series. All in all, not a great showing – and likely means it won't stick even if Kaprizov returns to the Wild.

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
CALEN ADDISONDMIN320.412:1630.918:31-10.5
MARCUS JOHANSSONCMIN319.111:3926.215:56-7.1
NICK BJUGSTADCMIN6159:0419.411:49-4.4
JONAS BRODINDMIN732.619:4336.922:26-4.3
CARSON SOUCYDMIN421.813:1725.115:17-3.3

Clearly, Calen Addison was not ready for prime time, though since he likely wasn't a rostered fantasy asset in any leagues, that won't have had much impact. It was good to see him get some time with the big club though. Marcus Johansson was supposed to be a relevant player but playing only 11.5 minutes a night, and only for three of Minnesota's playoff games caps off a disappointing regular season. He is really going to have to prove himself to be worth a look in future fantasy seasons.

Toronto

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
ZACH HYMANLTOR736.922:513219:224.9
ALEXANDER KERFOOTCTOR727.717:1123.914:273.8
TRAVIS DERMOTTDTOR32516:1521.813:133.2
AUSTON MATTHEWSCTOR738.523:5335.621:332.9
MITCHELL MARNERRTOR739.924:4337.122:262.8

The biggest winner on this run for Toronto (and the best opportunity on the list) was probably Zach Hyman. He has long been the third piece on one of Toronto’s top two lines, but this postseason he took it to new heights. His almost 23 minutes a night was just shy of Auston Mathews and was his career high. He paired that with an average of over three and a half minutes a night on the power-play. He saw his highest shot pace per game at over three and a half and spent most of his even strength and power-play time with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

Unfortunately, he responded with only one point. Matthews (5) and Marner (4), didn't exactly light it up either. And, of course, Toronto lost the series. All of that means the deployment might not stick, but it is the first time Hyman has been given such a significant power-play role and while it was likely due to John Tavares being out, it still makes Hyman an interesting guy to watch.

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NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
JOHN TAVARESCTOR14.82:5330.118:12-25.3
NICK FOLIGNOLTOR422.314:1129.217:46-6.9
JOE THORNTONCTOR717.510:5122.713:43-5.2
JAKE MUZZINDTOR631.319:3035.721:35-4.4
RILEY NASHCTOR216.89:5620.612:36-3.8

John Tavares is on this list as he only played a partial game thanks to that terrifying injury. The news has been good thus far, so let us hope he continues to progress and can make a full recovery.

The rest of the losses are veteran guys. Nick Foligno and Joe Thornton were likely added to be a veteran presence during the playoffs, and while they could still provide that in the locker room they clearly weren't doing so on the ice. Jake Muzzin losing ice time is a bit surprising as well as it isn't like Toronto has a wealth of high end D. He had a very consistent regular season, but as is apparently a trend now for him he lost time in the playoffs. It has happened two seasons in a row now. The hope is that, like last time, his time on ice will bounce back up for next year.

Edmonton

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
DARNELL NURSEDEDM451.538:3942.625:388.9
LEON DRAISAITLCEDM442.531:5536.922:115.6
TYSON BARRIEDEDM440.630:2835.621:245
JESSE PULJUJARVIREDM428.921:4325.115:083.8
DEVIN SHORECEDM221.919:1818.110:553.8

The total time-on-ice numbers here are impacted pretty dramatically by the overtime numbers. I mean Devin Shore with 19 minutes a night? Darnell Nurse playing almost two whole periods?

Honestly though not a lot to talk about here. Edmonton's best players got more time. The only exception is Devin Shore who got a look next to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He only played in two games though so definitely don't want to read too much into that.

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
RYAN MCLEODCEDM413.710:1721.212:47-7.5
ALEX CHIASSONREDM315.211:4320.712:29-5.5
SLATER KOEKKOEKDEDM416.612:2721.913:10-5.3
DOMINIK KAHUNCEDM217.410:4721.312:49-3.9
DMITRY KULIKOVDEDM32818:0431.519:10-3.5

Again, not much to talk about here. The bottom of Edmonton's roster got less time. There is somehow perpetual chatter about Alex Chiasson, and there was some hope that Dominik Kahun could have been a relevant supporting piece in Edmonton, but both somehow managed to lose not just a percent of total time, but actual time on ice even though three of the four games went to overtime. Moral of this story is don't wait up for the bottom of Edmonton's roster.

That's all for now. Stay safe out there.

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