The Journey: 2021 NHL Draft – Potential Top-50 Fantasy Prospects

Hadi Kalakeche

2021-07-10

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing Fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.  My name is Hadi, and I will be taking over for Dave Hall, who has chosen to pursue other avenues in his quest for a future in the scouting sphere.

On my end, I would like to start by thanking you, the reader, for your continuous and outstanding support along the years.  DobberHockey would not be where it is today without you. I hope to walk in Dave's footprints in continuing to grow our wonderful brand, and helping make Dobber a household name for any and all Fantasy and Dynasty league connoisseurs.

Now, on to the content.  The 2021 NHL Draft is very rapidly approaching, as July 23rd is right around the corner. The Buffalo Sabres, Seattle Kraken and Anaheim Ducks own the first three picks, in that order.  Three teams with very different needs, and likely very different approaches heading into the two-day event.

However, this is a year without any consensus first-overall pick: at this current moment, forwards Matthew Beniers, William Eklund and Fabian Lysell, as well as defensemen Brandt Clarke, Owen Power and Luke Hughes have all appeared at some point at the top of various 2021 NHL Draft rankings, among other names to a lesser degree.  Whether it's our DobberProspects rankings, which have changed quite a bit over the course of the year, or any other draft site's selections, the only unanimity is the clear lack of a consensus this time around.

It is often that, in draft years like this one, a player goes undrafted in the top-15 only to end up being the best player of the bunch — think Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2012 (19th), or Nikita Kucherov in 2011 (58th). This is why the 2021 NHL Draft is the perfect time to look at high-risk, high-reward picks that could potentially be top-50 Fantasy prospects in a couple years' time.

A fair warning: this is an exercise using a player's upside — the best they could possibly be — and projecting that side-by-side with current NHL draftees' upsides.  Some of the players on this list could very well end up fizzling out before ever reaching the NHL.  Their maximum ceiling, however, could see them become top-50 NHL prospects, which warrants them a spot on this list.

Jesper Wallstedt, G Luleå HF, SHL (top-50 Fantasy upside ranking: 20-30)

Wallstedt has been shaping up to be one of the most alluring goaltender prospects in recent years, and could very well end up being the best goaltender drafted in this new wave of potential starters getting snagged up in the first round. Yes, this includes Florida's Spencer Knight (2019, 13th overall) and Nashville's Yaroslav Askarov (2020, 11th overall)  – both of whom I am very fond of.  Wallstedt is just that good.  Rarely does an 18-year-old netminder make the SHL, let alone earn the starter role and keep his team in games on multiple occasions.  Wallstedt's start to the SHL season was especially impressive, with 219 of 238 shots against stopped for a .920 save percentage over his first nine games with Luleå. He then went to the World Juniors and barely played, still managing to save 17 of 17 against the USA after subbing in for the last 36 minutes of a lost cause.

If anyone is going to be a franchise player coming out of this draft, my money is on Wallstedt.  His anticipation, his poise, the way he tracks pucks through traffic, the way his movements seem almost robotic in their precision and quickness, the way he handles himself outside of the blue paint, whether by cutting the shooting angle on a rushing forward or when playing pucks behind his net, all  these assets combine to form a goaltender who looks the part of a 60-game puck-stopper who can steal a series.

His rankings have cooled down since his production has, as he finished his SHL campaign with a .908 save percentage, but Wallstedt has showed this tendency in his rookie season at the J20 level, to an almost eerie degree of similarity with his SHL rookie campaign: in 21 Swedish J20 games in 2018-19, his first year in that league, Wallstedt finished with an underwhelming .901 save percentage after starting the season hot. He then followed up that performance with a J20 campaign which saw his save percentage jump up to .923 in 2019-20. There is no doubt in my mind that Wallstedt will do the same next season; take his rookie season play, and build off of it.  Expect him to put up impressive SHL numbers next season.

William Eklund, C/LW – Djurgårdens IF, SHL (top-50 Fantasy upside ranking: 30-40)

Eklund makes this list due to his exceptionally productive SHL season, which can only be properly put into context by comparing him with fellow SHL draft-eligibles in their draft-year campaign.  With his 23 points (11-12) in 40 games, Eklund led the entire SHL for players his age and tallied 0.58 points per game, more than doubling his runner-up's SHL production rate (Oskar Olausson, 0.25 p/gp).

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When comparing Eklund with the SHL's historical level of production, only four names show up above his in the league's all-time leaderboard for points in a season: Nicklas Bäckström, Elias Lindholm, Henrik Sedin, and Daniel Sedin. He also sits ninth all-time in SHL points per game for an 18-year-old, right in-between the Naslund brothers.

These stat lines are exactly why Eklund is rumored to be in or around the first overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft. The only handful of players who have outpaced him in their draft-year SHL season have made the NHL and become full-time top-six forwards.  Eklund is in excellent company statistically, but that means nothing if his play is not suited to the NHL, and I can confidently say that there is very, very little about his game that wouldn't translate. The way he picks out teammates across the narrowest of seams, the speed at which he makes decisions and changes directions, his tendency to draw in defenders to free up space, his dual-threat offensive touch, his ability to think and play in-between checks, all these assets should carry into the NHL.

Related: Game Tape With Tony – William Eklund

Scott Morrow, RD – Shattuck St. Mary's, USHS-Prep (top-50 Fantasy upside ranking: 30-40)

A polarizing name that I've seen show up in the second round of many a mock draft, Morrow has the offensive prowess of a player that could become a #1 offensive defenseman with power-play quarterback responsibilities, if he manages to iron out the wrinkles in his defensive game. The mobile defenseman has been difficult to analyze properly this season, mainly due to the outright poor level of competition and teammate support that he had to work with. He was objectively the best player in the high school circuit, finishing first league-wide in points per game among all players with more than 15 games played, forwards included.

Most, if not all of his points came from his electrifying pace of play, his elite-level stickhandling game and his ability to find teammates in open spaces with regularity. That last part is what might trouble Morrow at the next level, but in six playoff games in the USHL with the Fargo Force, he showed that he could still locate open spots and throw passes with timing for his teammates to skate into, despite not earning any points in that span. Morrow was still finding his game, but seemed to retain what makes him good.

As Morrow joins the ranks of UMass in the NCAA for his post-draft season, the veil will unfurl a little more on what could be the steal of the 2021 NHL Draft. If Morrow can continue doing what he does best at the University level, he should be able to spend a couple of seasons in that league, learn a thing or two at school, and develop his game to become a point-producing blueliner at the NHL level, sort of like Dante Fabbro and David Farrance have done recently for the Nashville Predators. A long-term, high-risk pick, but one that could end up being a goldmine of a draft selection five years from now.

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