I’m back from a week “off” after the birth of my first daughter. She’s happy, healthy, and completely overwhelming. Lack of sleep and baby brain are a real thing here, and as a result I haven’t been able to really get much time for hockey or for my thoughts over the last two weeks; and what a busy two weeks those have been in the hockey world. 

My bread and butter, free agency, is something that I had to take a back-seat on this year. Dobber, Cliffy, and Ian did a great job at keeping you covered with the fantasy takes. I want to add a few thoughts of my own and maybe look at things from a fresh perspective. I’ll give the free agent window another week to settle out before diving in there, and in the meantime, there was a lot of player value changes. 

Anyways, let’s start with the draft. Some big fallers that I had my eyes on included:
-Logan Stankoven
-Aatu Raty
-Francisco Pinelli
-Ayrton Martino
-Ville Koivunen (Drafted to Carolina in a pick our former Finnish Prospects guru Jokke Nevalainen likely had some say in)

*Note, I typically focus on forwards due to the shorter wait time, but this can be very league dependent.

Two of them went to Dallas, one to the Islanders, one to the Kings, and one to the Hurricanes. If the guys you have your eyes on tend to get drafted by the teams with well-regarded scouting departments and draft history, you’re probably on the right track. 

I’ll keep this brief, but Logan Mailloux should not have been drafted. It’s a hugely unfortunate, but unsurprising stain on the NHL. Rachel says it all better than I ever could. If you only have time to finish the Ramblings or to read Rachel’s article, do the latter. I guarantee you will get more out of it. 

https://twitter.com/racheldoerrie/status/1420732263550144514?s=19

Sticking with the draft, Carolina continues to trade down and make teams look silly. I love that they do that, and I usually tend to try and follow that same outline in my drafts. The key to it is having tiers laid out ahead of time, and anything you can gain while not dropping out of one of your tiers is a bonus. 

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The biggest deal to this point looks to be Seth Jones to Chicago. I think this trade obviously helps Jones more than Adam Boqvist who went the other way, giving him some dynamic weapons up front. Something in the 60-point range while maintaining his solid peripherals should be the norm for jones over the next number of years. 

With Werenski locked in for the foreseeable future in Columbus, as well as the presence of Jake Bean, Boqvist is going to be in tough to get a fair sniff at the powerplay. He might slide under the radar for a year or two until enough players move around to get him the top gig. Something to keep in the back pocket anyways. 

Back to Werenski though, that is an insanely tough contract to swallow. Still better than the deals Shea Weber, Erik Karlsson, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and Drew Doughty are signed to, but he’s a tough cap league own at the moment despite the possibility of putting up 20+ goals every year. 

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Robin Lehner‘s value shoots up with the Marc-Andre Fleury trade. Expect 60 starts and Vezina-like numbers (perhaps even better than Fleury’s from last season). The team and him are both that good. 

The depth in Vegas is ridiculous now:
Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone
Marchessault-Karlsson-Krebs
Dadonov-Patrick-Smith
Carrier-Roy-Janmark
(Tuch – injured)

Martinez-Pietrangelo
McNabb-Theodore
Hague-Whitecloud

Lehner
Brossoit

This team might just make a run for scoring the most goals for, and allowing the fewest against in a season. That’s even before you factor in their weak division. If there was ever a lock for the President’s Trophy, this may be the year. There's also another name to consider who likely won't crack the opening night lineup, and that's goaltending prospect Logan Thompson. Here’s a sample write-up I have for him in the “goalies to watch” section of the 2021 DobberHockey fantasy guide. 

"With Marc-Andre Fleury traded to Chicago, Thompson's time could be upon us sooner than many realize. He is the top goaltending prospect in the system, and someone that is very nearly NHL ready. Lehner will still control the majority of the starts, but he has had his share on injuries, and he won't be starting every game for what will likely be the top team in the Pacific. Brossoit, despite the overpay, is not much of a hurdle to clear."

The guide is due out August 14th, and you can pre-order it here. 

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Elsewhere, Darcy Kuemper is suddenly a must-own in Colorado, however Pavel Francouz is a darkhorse to actually end up with more starts and better numbers. It will likely be worth trying to draft both just to be sure. 

The defence landscape in Arizona changed quite a bit. Bringing in Shayne Gostisbehere, Anton Stralman, and Conor Timmins revamps things on both the offensive and the defensive end. However, with both Timmins and Gostisbehere more suited to offensive roles, we could see Chychrun’s deployment, and as a result his production, tail off a bit. Something to keep in mind, especially for a team that doesn’t have a lot of fire-power up front to begin with. 

Also with the Coyotes, as Kuemper is now gone, look for the Coyotes to follow it the Blackhawks’ footsteps and roll with whatever goalies happen to be in the system for this coming season. Carter Hutton should have zero value. Ivan Prosvetov is third in line, and is close to NHL ready. Getting the first crack will be Josef Korenar. He brings some big potential for those seeking cheap volume.

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One of Hornqvist, Bennett, or Duclair are going to be knocked out of the top-six (when everyone is healthy). Odds are it will be Hornqvist, though he should continue to receive some plum PP time. 

In net for the Cats I am really curious to see how the pedigree of Spencer Knight fares against the contract of Sergei Bobrovsky. It should be talent that makes the decisions, but typically common sense is thrown out the window when that kind of money is involved.

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Pavel Buchnevich is someone that I will be watching very closely this fall. He put up nearly a point per game (40 in 41) after the first quarter of the season, playing on the top line, and could be primed to continue on that trajectory in St Louis. His deployment was extremely similar to that of Vladimir Tarasenko, and with that, he put up better overall, and underlying numbers. However, he rode a lot of high percentages to that production, so without line mates Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, can he keep it up? 

I’m curious where in the lineup he plays (becomes pretty easy to sort out if/when Tank is traded), and also whether he is used on the top power play. Keep those two things the same as his Ranger days, and the Blues acquired a 75-point player in his prime for pennies on the dollar. 

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Out West, the Canucks made a big splash, combining all their bad money into one equivalent dollar amount on a longer contract with OEL, while adding underrated scorer Conor Garland in the process. With the freedom to then also revamp the bottom-six (or leave a few spots open to the training camp competition) the Canucks look to be a deeper team next year. 

Add in a healthy Elias Pettersson, and they may be able to surprise a few people in the weaker Pacific team (especially since they won’t have to play MTL much). 

On the powerplay may be where Garland’s presence is felt most, as he would be a great fit to take over for Bo Horvat in the bumper spot. If that is the setup we see this season, then Garland should easily pace for 60+ points, and we may see Horvat’s power play point total continue to drop as it has for the last couple seasons. 

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Chicago is going to be very interesting to watch this year. First off, we can’t let the sexual abuse allegations get swept under the rug, and the league should be more on top of that than the Evander Kane situation. However, the product on the ice has taken a turn this offseason, and the result could be a push for a playoff berth. The West is a little more open, and the return of Jonathan Toews alone could push this team across that line. (It was great to see him out and about at Alex Debruncat’s wedding this weekend.)

On top of that though, last year’s Vezina winner was brought in without subtracting anything off the roster, the defence was upgraded, and the Tyler Johnson trade lengthens the forward group to the point that it actually looks like a top-half team in the West.

I'm hoping the acquisitions on defence don't push Riley Stillman out of the lineup, as I own him in one league and he's steadily growing into a peripherals monster. Stillman is more likely to make the opening night lineup than puck-movers Nicolas Beaudin or Ian Mitchell though, and that may end up helping Jones' value even more.

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As mentioned above, I'll cover my free agency thoughts next week once I have had a chance to update my spreadsheets, and when the market is even more settled.

In the meantime, feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions. Stay safe!