Eastern Edge: Impact Signings Like Yandle and Hoffman

Brennan Des

2021-08-03

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss the fantasy impact of recent free agent signings. We'll focus on Mike Hoffman in particular, but I'll also share a few quick thoughts on Erik Haula and Keith Yandle.

Mike Hoffman

Hoffman signed a three-year deal with the Canadiens, which comes with an average annual value (AAV) of $4.5 million. The 31-year-old forward posted 36 points in 52 games with the Blues last season, which translates to 57 points in your typical 82-game campaign. Remarkably, almost half of his points (17/36) came with the man advantage, which is noteworthy because he saw just 45-percent of the team's total power-play time. Based on his overall numbers last season, it's tempting to conclude that Hoffman doesn't need big minutes to produce on the power play. However, a closer look reveals that he started the year with six power-play points (PPPs) in his first 37 games before posting 11 PPPs in his final 15 appearances. It seems to me that his overall power-play numbers were inflated by that one hot stretch. As such, I wouldn't place a lot of weight on last year's power-play production when making projections for next season. Now, this isn't to diminish Hoffman's power-play skill, which has been highlighted frequently since he's signed with the Canadiens. However, I think his time in Florida serves as better proof for his power-play prowess than his short stint with the Blues. In 2019-2020, he saw a 73-percent share of Florida's time with the man advantage and managed 21 PPPs in 69 games (0.30 PPPs/game). In 2018-2019, he posted 35 PPPs through 82 appearances (0.43 PPPs/game) whilst seeing a 65-percent share of the team's power-play time. Now this is a long-winded way of stating the obvious – that Hoffman likely needs a prominent power-play role in order to produce big numbers with the man advantage going forward. But more importantly, his impressive power-play production in a secondary role with St. Louis doesn't seem reproducible. Now, why is this important? Well, the Canadiens have a reputation for splitting power-play time between two units. Last year, Tyler Toffoli and Nick Suzuki led the way in power-play opportunity, but they only saw 53-percent of the team's total time with the man advantage. As such, it seems like Hoffman's power-play deployment next year will be more similar to what he saw in St. Louis than what he saw in Florida. So even though Montreal's power play looks like it will be dangerous next year, Hoffman's ceiling is lower than other power-play specialists who enjoy at least 65-percent of their team's power-play time. It'll be interesting to see how Montreal spreads their talent on the power play next year. Having Suzuki, Hoffman and Caufield on the same unit would create an extremely dangerous attack with three strong shooting threats. But how would you round out that unit? Brendan Gallagher providing the net-front presence and Jeff Petry playing the point? Where would that leave Jonathan Drouin? Montreal's zone entry struggles were especially evident during Drouin's leave of absence last year. No matter how talented the PP unit is, it's hard for them to be effective if they can't enter the zone and get set up. Regardless of how things end up, if you draft a Canadien to your fantasy roster, you're hoping he's on the power-play with Nick Suzuki – who I think is Montreal's most dynamic player with the man advantage.

At even strength, it's tough to predict where Hoffman slots into the lineup because Montreal has an abundance of talented wingers. Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin, Josh Anderson, Tyler Toffoli, Cole Caufield and Mike Hoffman are all top-six talents, but two of those players will be relegated to the third line. There are so many possible combinations, I won't bother projecting the lineup until we've at least seen a few games. At present, Nick Suzuki is clearly Montreal's best center and his strong defensive play may compensate for Hoffman's defensive deficits. However, Jake Evans and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are also responsible defensively and while they certainly don't possess the offensive ceiling that Suzuki does, there's some untapped potential that they may start realizing next year. In other words, don't be discouraged if Hoffman doesn't line up beside Suzuki. I think Evans and Kotkaniemi can provide more offense than we've seen so far. With Hoffman's arrival, I am slightly concerned that Montreal's more defensively competent wingers, like Brendan Gallagher and Tyler Toffoli, may have to take on more defensive responsibility in order to free up easier minutes for Hoffman, who isn't as strong defensively. Gallagher has proven he's capable of producing offense while playing difficult defensive minutes, but Toffoli started 58-percent of his shifts in the offensive zone en route to his impressive 69-point pace last year. Last year's uncharacteristically high shooting percentage (17.7-percent) already hinted at some regression next season, but less favourable deployment reinforces that Toffoli takes a step back next year.

Erik Haula

David Krejci's retirement from the NHL creates a hole at the second-line center spot in Boston's lineup. It's a favourable position given the exposure to talented wingers in Taylor Hall and Craig Smith. In terms of replacements, Charlie Coyle seems the best suited to fill the opening but Erik Haula, who the Bruins just signed to a two-year deal, is another viable option. Haula was first given a prominent role back in 2017-2018, when he skated 17 and a half minutes a night with the Golden Knights and managed 55 points in 76 games. Unfortunately, he's been hindered by injuries in recent seasons and hasn't really found the same level of offense. I personally think Coyle is a better fit for the second-line center spot in Boston, but Haula is certainly a low-risk, high-reward pick in the later rounds of your fantasy draft.

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Keith Yandle

In moving from Florida to Philadelphia, the 34-year-old defenseman sees his fantasy value drop significantly. Yandle's best years saw him hold a prominent role with the man advantage, resulting in lofty power-play points totals and impressive offensive numbers. It's unlikely he'll see the lion's share of PP time in Philly, where Ryan Ellis, Ivan Provorov, Rasmus Ristolainen and Travis Sanheim all have experience with the man advantage. More importantly, those other guys have proven useful in other aspects beyond the power-play, so they're more likely to stay in the lineup than Yandle – who only really provides that offensive speciality. We've seen similar offensive specialists like Shayne Gostisbehere and Erik Gustafsson fall out of favour in Philly, so I really don't see this as a great fit for Yandle.

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