Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Micahel Amato (subbing for a vacationing Dobber)

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1. On Saturday, the Montreal Canadiens decided not to match the one-year, $6.1 million offer sheet on Jesperi Kotkaniemi, officially making him a member of the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canadiens received Carolina’s first- and third-round picks in 2022 as compensation. Just moments later, they struck a deal with Arizona and landed Christian Dvorak, suggesting that GM Marc Bergevin had been planning this for the past week knowing that matching the offer sheet wouldn’t be a wise investment of cap space. Below, Fantasy Takes on both deals:

>> [Habs don't match offer sheet, Kotkaniemi officially a Cane]

>> [Habs waste no time in acquiring Dvorak]

2. We have Bubble Keeper Week coming up and that’s always a fun time of the year. Fantasy leagues generally aren’t won in the first five rounds of a draft, but they can often be won at the end of a draft. Fantasy teams can overcome missing on a player or two early on, depending on waiver movement and trade ability. Teams probably cannot overcome missing on a superstar or two being drafted late. Those guys can replace, or complement, the early misses. That is what helps put a fantasy roster over the top.  

If you don’t know what makes a player a bubble keeper, it is a player that generally won’t get drafted in the majority of leagues. Of course, these players could become relevant during the season, so we’re trying to help you find that diamond in the rough.(sep2)

3. I think people are sleeping on the Calgary Flames. I think Darryl Sutter had a positive impact on the team, even if it didn’t immediately reflect in the win column. A full offseason with a normal training camp should do wonders for this team. Just FYI: Calgary was third in the league in expected goal share at 5-on-5 after Sutter took over. (They were just outside the top-10 before that).

This team has the horses to make three good lines. They can do something like this:

Johnny Gaudreau – Sean Monahan – Matthew Tkachuk
Andrew Mangiapane – Elias Lindholm – Blake Coleman
Milan Lucic – Mikael Backlund – Dillon Dube

Quite honestly, that is not a bad top-9, provided there are bounce-backs for the likes of Gaudreau and Monahan. They are in a very weak division, with only Vegas as a true contender. If people are down on Gaudreau and Lindholm, now is the time to buy. I think we see a turnaround from this franchise this year, even without Mark Giordano. (aug31)

4. Jacob Markstrom posted his worst save percentage last year since the 2014-15 season and in order for that to improve I think the Calgary Flames goaltender probably has to play a little less. Markstrom played 43 of 56 games last year and 60 games in two of three prior years. That workload started to take a toll on the 31-year-old and he appeared burnt out at times.

Playing Markstrom less is going to be tough, though, as Dan Vladar looks to be the backup and I’m not sure he’s ready for 35 games or so. That said, if Markstrom can stay healthy he’ll have a good chance to record some great win totals, as the Pacific doesn’t figure to be that strong. Only two teams from the division, (Edmonton and Vegas) made the playoffs last year. (aug30)

5. Now that I’ve completed a few mock drafts on the Yahoo site, I’ve gotten a feel for which players will be available at which spots. There will probably be more live drafters than autopickers at the real drafts, so the draft results won’t necessarily follow a particular pattern. Having said that, there are still numerous players that I believe are falling too far in drafts. If you can pick the following players in the right spot, they can deliver great value for your team. Here are three, follow the link for more… 

Tristan Jarry (Yahoo ADP: 113): No doubt a lot of fantasy owners still have that impression of Jarry’s shaky play in the playoff series against the Islanders. Maybe that’s why I was able to draft Jarry at 109 in one mock draft and at 129 in another. After a rough start, Jarry ended the season fourth in goaltender wins. The ratios might be average, but the Penguins decided not to bring in anyone who would push Jarry for starts, so the volume should be there again. On average, Jarry is the 23^rd goalie being drafted, behind the likes of Kevin Lankinen and Mackenzie Blackwood, neither of whom will start as many games and for teams not considered as strong as Pittsburgh. (sep3)

Teuvo Teravainen (Yahoo ADP: 142): Teravainen was another pick I received multiple stick taps for in my last mock draft. I suspect he is flying under the radar because the projections have heavily weighted last season’s numbers (15 PTS in 21 GP) when he spent considerable time on IR. Previous to that, Teravainen had scored at a 76-point pace in each of his last two seasons. Having Teravainen back for a full season with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov could be huge for everyone involved.  (sep3)

Tyler Toffoli (Yahoo ADP: 159): This is a case of me not being bullish on a player but at the same time noticing he’s being drafted way too late. At times, it seemed like Toffoli scored at will last season (especially against his former Canucks teammates), finishing in the top 10 in goal scoring. A 17.7 SH% might indicate that his goal scoring falls, which it probably will. Yet there aren’t really any other advanced stats that suggest a major regression. Can we also say that Toffoli is a great fit on the Canadiens, particularly with a playmaking center like Nick Suzuki?  (sep3)

6. I took part in another mock draft this week, where I decided to challenge myself a bit more with a later first-round pick (#9). For some reason I tend to receive the later picks in the first round instead of the earlier picks in real life when they are randomly selected. Picking at ninth would also help me decide on a solid second-tier option beyond what seem to be the consensus top 5 selections of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Why discuss first-round options when all of the players you pick in this round are going to be awesome? Well, I’ll repeat a line that I first heard from ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry years ago: “You won’t win your fantasy league with your first-round pick, but you could certainly lose it with that pick.” I know he was referring to football or baseball, but the same principle applies with hockey. Following are six names I would recommend if you are in that later part of the first round.

7. Auston Matthews: I didn’t think this would happen, but he ended up falling to me at #9. Maybe this was because of news that he underwent wrist surgery earlier this month, with the recovery possibly cutting into training camp. I can understand someone’s hesitation to pick him at #6, but I was happy to scoop him up at #9. Maybe that will happen in your draft too. We’re talking about the reigning Rocket Richard award winner, and by a good eight goals.

8. Brad Marchand: You could make an argument – even a coin toss – about whether to pick Marchand or teammate David Pastrnak here. Similar scoring, and likely on the same line again. Pastrnak will likely take a few more shots, so I’d go with him in pure scoring leagues. Yet if you’re in any kind of bangers league, Marchand draws the edge because of higher hits and penalty minute totals. Pastrnak was already gone in this mock draft at #7, so Marchand was my next choice if Matthews would have been taken. (aug29)

9. Alex Ovechkin: Everything for Ovechkin took at least a slight hit in 2020-21: Goals, points, shots, and even hits. Yet this was an unusual year where the Capitals had their share of players in COVID protocol, including Ovechkin himself. The team has enough faith in him to have given him a five-year contract worth $9.5 million per season. There’s also the Gretzky goal record chase, which if you divide the difference over five seasons, Ovie would need to score 33 goals per season. He will be turning 36 in September, but at least he will still be motivated.  

10. Artemi Panarin: The Bread Man has consistently scored at a 113-point pace over each of the past two seasons. Yes, that high a point pace for both of his seasons with the Rangers. The fact that he missed 14 games last season (most of which to attend to a personal matter) might push his ranking down if you were just to look at last season’s scoring race. He won’t deliver elite peripherals, but he is arguably a top-5 option in pure scoring leagues. You could draft him and look to fill those peripherals elsewhere.

11. Mikko Rantanen: The Avalanche forward was the sixth player drafted in this mock draft, and he is also on average the sixth player being drafted in Yahoo leagues. So he will likely be gone if you’re picking ninth. In pure points leagues, I might be able to justify the sixth pick on Rantanen. However, I might look elsewhere (one of the players above) if I have the sixth pick. Rantanen’s peripheral categories don’t stand out (low hits, has never reached 200 shots in a season). As well, he’s been a bit of an injury risk throughout his career. (aug29)

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IN THE DOBBER SHOP: The French version of the Fantasy Guide, 'GUIDE DES POOLERS', is now available for download! 

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12. The Sabres have signed Casey Mittelstadt to a three-year contract with an AAV of $2.5 million. Mittelstadt finished fourth on the Sabres in scoring with 22 points in 41 games. That may not seem noteworthy, but he finished the season with nine goals and 17 points of the final 22 games of the season.

Mittelstadt’s fantasy value definitely improved under new coach Don Granato, although he received additional opportunity because Jack Eichel wasn’t in the lineup. Before Eichel’s season-ending injury, Mittelstadt averaged just over 12 minutes of icetime (when he was in the lineup and not on the taxi squad). After Eichel’s injury, Mittelstadt averaged nearly 17 minutes.

Even though Buffalo will probably be a tire fire of a team, someone will have to take on scoring line responsibility. Even if Eichel is not traded, he may be out of the lineup anyway if he undergoes neck surgery. That could vault Mittelstadt up to the top line and secure first-unit power-play minutes. As a result, Mittelstadt has deep sleeper potential. He doesn’t even appear on the Yahoo ADP list, so I’d have to think he’ll be available at around pick 200 if your draft goes that deep. Just beware of plus-minus, which will probably be an issue for any Sabres regular.  (sep3)

13. The Flyers have signed Joel Farabee to a six-year contract with an AAV of $5.0 million. Farabee has one year left on his existing contract worth $925,000 before this new one kicks in. Farabee led the Flyers with 20 goals last season while finishing fifth in overall scoring with 38 points.

A total of 17 of Farabee’s 20 goals were at even-strength, which was tied for 15^th in the league in that category. One look at that stat would suggest that Farabee could benefit from additional power-play time. Although the Flyers’ first and second power-play units don’t vary in icetime as much as other teams’ units, Farabee was mainly used on the second unit. I’m not sure how this will all shake out, but contract decisions on Claude Giroux (one more season) and James van Riemsdyk (two more seasons) could affect Farabee.

It’s also worth mentioning that Farabee started the season with 24 points in 25 games, but finished with 14 points in his last 30 games. He was playing in his second NHL season, so some inconsistency is expected. Farabee has a 170 ADP in Yahoo, behind or around names such as Calle Jarnkrok, Yegor Sharangovich and Frank Vatrano, so he has the opportunity to deliver great value.  (sep3)

14. With training camps barreling down on us, this may be my last chance to strictly talk about comparing top-end players. For this, we’ll go off Yahoo!’s ADP. It’s all we have right now and is an easy way for readers to double-check where these players are going right now. Their ADP is in parenthesis, rounded up or down. Just below is Sebastian Aho (20^th) vs. Brayden Point (20^th); for other comparisons, follow the link to last Thursday's Ramblings. So, let’s do that, Aho vs. Point:

Aho has been in the news recently, if indirectly through Jesperi Kotkaniemi‘s offer sheet. Over his last three seasons, he’s been exactly a point-per-game player with 206 points in 206 games. He had 57 points in 56 games in 2021, but his shot rate fell off from over 3.0 to 2.6. That works out to over 30 shots in a full season, and about three goals. If his shot rate doesn’t improve in 2021-22, and he can’t repeat his 16.2 percent shooting, that goal rate could decline a bit. They also lost Dougie Hamilton and he would have set a career-high in PPPs last season had they played 82 games. Can he repeat that PP success without Hamilton? He is in his prime, as are his likely line mates, so maybe he can. It is a concern, though.

Point’s, er, production fell off in 2021 but he was still on pace for 70 points in a full year. Remember that Nikita Kucherov missed the entire season, which was a massive loss for Point: over the last three seasons, the team scores a goal and a half less when Point is on the ice without Kuch compared to when he’s on the ice with him (at all strengths). In a season of 1500 minutes played, that would mean about 30 fewer goals scored with Point on the ice, or roughly 20 fewer points for the 25-year-old centre in a full season. So, remember how Point was on pace for 70 points in 82 games last season? If Kuch was around, a good bet would be 90 points in an 82-game season.

It depends on the league. In points-only formats, I may lean Point here. If we’re including face-offs and shots, i.e. multi-cat leagues, it may be Aho. (sep2)

15. Connor Murphy signed a contract extension this week. The $4.4 million price tag may seem like a lot to those outside of Chicago, but fans of the Blackhawks know how vital he has been to their team over the last few years, to the point that this feels like a bargain. He's a great guy to use in fantasy to pad those peripheral stats, but not much more. At least his plus-minus might be a little better this year.  (sep1)

16. I’m going to continue my train of thought on how I prepare for the fantasy season each year. Last week I went over my mock draft practices, and the week before I dove into the beginning of my offseason planning, which starts with some player evaluations. This week I’m looking a little more towards the research and planning of the season, so follow the link for details. (sep1)

17. What about Laurent Brossoit? Over the last three seasons in Winnipeg, which was only 54 games, Brossoit had a high-danger save percentage of .839. That was higher than now-teammate Robin Lehner and in the 70^th percentile of goalies. He also had a goals saved above expected of 12.2, which was top-10 in the league over those three seasons. That is a cumulative stat, and for reference, Anton Khudobin was at 13.4 GSAx in double the games played. If Brossoit had played the same number of games and had the same performance he always had, he would have been a top-5 goalie by this measure. Lehner, by the way, was sixth, but trailed Brossoit on a per-minute basis significantly.

My question is this: what if Lehner isn’t great to start the season? We just saw the team turn the keys over to a goalie they were ready to trade in the offseason in Marc-André Fleury. If Lehner has an .890 save percentage after a month and Brossoit is getting at least half the starts, what does that mean for a goalie playing for a Cup contender in a weak division? Great things, that’s what.

As of right now, Lehner is the second goalie off the board in Yahoo! drafts. Conversely, Brossoit isn’t even going inside the top-50 goalies. I genuinely do not think there is that big a gap between the two of them, even if Lehner makes 55 starts. What if Lehner only makes 45? Or he’s flat-out bad and only starts 35 as Brossoit takes over? We know this team won’t hesitate to go with the hot goalie.

For the record, the 2021 Dobber Hockey Guide has Lehner with 55 games played. Again, I don’t think there’s that big of a gap if he gets, say, 50 and Brossoit gets 30. The choice for a draft pick is clear. (aug31)

18. One role I’ve been thinking about is the top-line right wing next to Mat Barzal. With Jordan Eberle gone, there are top-line and top PP minutes available with the Islanders. Yes, it’s the Islanders, but it’s still 17 minutes a night playing almost exclusively with one of the best transition and playmakers in the league. It’s worth discussion.

Quite honestly, I don’t see how they don’t at least start Oliver Wahlstrom up there. He’s a genuine offensive dynamo in the making, and someone that can replace Eberle’s role in that regard. He is important to that third line because of that scoring, but if the team can bring in Zach Parise (as is strongly rumoured), Parise could help fill the third-line cap in scoring. Something like Parise-Pageau-Panik is a fine third line.

Wahlstrom is going just inside the top-200 in Yahoo! drafts. If I were to draft before training camp starts, I’m probably drafting Wahlstrom somewhere around the 13^th or 14^th round in a 12-team league. In a month’s time, if he’s skating on the top line in exhibition games, he’ll be close to the top-10 rounds.

According to Evolving Hockey, Wahlstrom was a full standard deviation above average both defensively at 5-on-5 and offensively on the power play. He was also among the leaders in shot rate on the team, just behind Anders Lee. The reason his offensive play-driving isn’t great (yet) is he isn’t a great playmaker (yet). He was also well below average in zone entry percentage with control, down around Leo Komarov‘s level. Guys who are bad in transition usually can’t drive the play, but that doesn’t mean Wahlstrom is a bad offensive player. He has great offensive instincts, he just needs to round out his game.

The need for him to be more well-rounded could be what keeps him from consistent top-line minutes, but I think he’s ready. With enough minutes, he has 20 goals, 200 shots, and 100 hits all within reach. That is worth a top-200 pick right now. (aug31)

19. It appears Charlie Coyle will start the season as the No. 2 center for the Boston Bruins, replacing the departing David Krejci. Coyle had a down season offensively last year, which could be due to a knee issue he had taken care of this offseason. The 29-year-old managed just 16 total points last season after finding the back of the net 16 times in 70 games the year prior. Coyle has always been a good depth multi-cat guy for hits and faceoffs, but his offensive consistency leaves a lot to be desired. If he does stick in that second line center spot, though, it’s hard to see how his numbers don’t rise. He’ll likely play with Taylor Hall for much of the season and possibly even David Pastrnak here and there, as the Bruins have been known to drop Pastrnak down at times to create some more offensive balance. (aug30)

20. I’ll be very interested to see how Vancouver’s top-six shakes out this year and if the addition of Conor Garland freshens things up a bit. Specifically, who will take the majority of the draws for the Canucks outside of Bo Horvat? Elias Pettersson took well over 600 draws as a rookie, but has only been used sparingly in the faceoff circle ever since.

J.T. Miller has replaced Pettersson in that area over the past two seasons and it’s been a blow if you’re a Pettersson owner in a league that tracks faceoffs. For instance, in a keeper league I play in that counts faceoffs, I have to decide whether to keep Pettersson or Dylan Larkin for one more year. It seems crazy to let someone with Pettersson’s talent go, but if Larkin is good for 600-700 faceoff wins, it makes the choice much tougher. Even if Pettersson gets 10-15 more points than Larkin, that probably isn’t going to compensate for the lack of draws. (aug30)

21. Which players will have fantasy value on the Seattle Kraken next year? That roster doesn’t really jump off the page at you, but if your league counts shot blocks then you may want to look Seattle’s way.

Kraken defenders Adam Larsson and Mark Giordano ranked second and sixth respectively in the NHL when it came to blocked shots last season, and Jamie Oleksiak finished just outside the top 25. They’ll get plenty of opportunities for blocks, too, as there’s a good chance an expansion team is going to be spending a lot of time in their own end. I’ve voiced my concern over Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger next year because I don’t feel Seattle will be very good, but having half of your defense corps being capable of blocking a significant number of shots will certainly help the cause. (aug30)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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