Ramblings: Canes Offer Sheet Kotkaniemi, Theodore vs. Pietrangelo, Later 1st Round Picks in Fantasy Drafts (Aug 29)

Ian Gooding

2021-08-29

Call it payback with enough entertainment value to send a jolt through a typically uneventful Saturday during the NHL offseason. In signing Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an offer sheet, Carolina GM Don Waddell is flat out taking revenge on the Canadiens for their offer sheet to Sebastian Aho two years ago. Who said all NHL organizations are boring and buttoned down?

All of this fun could come at a cost for the Hurricanes, though. The offer sheet is only for one year but at $6.1 million, which seems much higher than Kotkaniemi is worth at the moment. It will cost the Canes a first- and third-round pick in the 2022 draft if the Habs elect not to match. If they do match, the Habs would be about $2 million over their LTIR exception space. As well, Kotkaniemi would need to be qualified at $6.1 million next summer, which I could see either team walking away from unless he breaks out in a significant and unexpected way. Whatever happens, Kotkaniemi's contract situation won't be taking the straight and narrow path.

If Montreal decides not to match the Kotkaniemi offer, look for a Fantasy Take article here on how the teams would be affected. I won't jump the gun here, because I really don't know what will happen. My guess is that he would be buried down the depth chart in Carolina on the third or fourth line, but in investing $6 million, maybe the Canes have other ideas.

Payback offer sheets are not a first, though. In the summer of 2008, the Canucks signed David Backes to a three-year, $7.5 million offer sheet, with the Blues matching. One week later, the Blues signed Steve Bernier to a one-year, $2.5 million offer sheet, which the Canucks matched.

Regarding my mock draft last weekend, a reader suggested that Alex Pietrangelo was drafted too high (4-48) and Shea Theodore was drafted too low (7-75). Those picks are roughly in line with how they are being drafted in Yahoo, as Pietrangelo has an ADP of around 50 and Theodore has an ADP of around 78. Which d-man would you rather own on your fantasy team? This was an intriguing question that I saw being discussed elsewhere, so I thought I'd weigh in. Here are their stats from last season.

NameGPGAPTSPTS/GPacePPP+/-SOGPPTOITOIHitsBkS
ALEX PIETRANGELO41716230.56384201262:3824:252880
SHEA THEODORE53834420.796315281613:0422:322243

I realize Pietrangelo didn't play a full season and he may have needed a season to get accustomed to Vegas after a decade in St. Louis. Pietrangelo also had an exceptional playoff (12 points in 19 games) where he led all players with 76 shots in spite of not making it to the Cup final. Pietrangelo also slightly outpaced Theodore in those valuable power-play minutes (2:15 PPTOI to 2:08 PPTOI), so it may not be a foregone conclusion that Theodore gets the PP1 role. But I think there's a better than 50% chance that Theodore does, so my strategy here would be to let Pietrangelo fall and grab Theodore in the fifth or sixth round – a round or two before his ADP.

I took part in another mock draft this week, where I decided to challenge myself a bit more with a later first-round pick (#9). For some reason I tend to receive the later picks in the first round instead of the earlier picks in real life when they are randomly selected. Picking at ninth would also help me decide on a solid second-tier option beyond what seem to be the consensus top 5 selections of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Why discuss first-round options when all of the players you pick in this round are going to be awesome? Well, I'll repeat a line that I first heard from ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry years ago: "You won't win your fantasy league with your first-round pick, but you could certainly lose it with that pick." I know he was referring to football or baseball, but the same principle applies with hockey.

Here are some names I would recommend if you are in that later part of the first round.

Auston Matthews

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I didn't think this would happen, but he ended up falling to me at #9. Maybe this was because of news that he underwent wrist surgery earlier this month, with the recovery possibly cutting into training camp. I can understand someone's hesitation to pick him at #6, but I was happy to scoop him up at #9. Maybe that will happen in your draft too. We're talking about the reigning Rocket Richard award winner, and by a good eight goals.

Brad Marchand

You could make an argument – even a coin toss – about whether to pick Marchand or teammate David Pastrnak here. Similar scoring, and likely on the same line again. Pastrnak will likely take a few more shots, so I'd go with him in pure scoring leagues. Yet if you're in any kind of bangers league, Marchand draws the edge because of higher hits and penalty minute totals. Pastrnak was already gone in this mock draft at #7, so Marchand was my next choice if Matthews would have been taken.

Alex Ovechkin

Everything for Ovechkin took at least a slight hit in 2020-21: Goals, points, shots, and even hits. Yet this was an unusual year where the Capitals had their share of players in COVID protocol, including Ovechkin himself. The team has enough faith in him to have given him a five-year contract worth $9.5 million per season. There's also the Gretzky goal record chase, which if you divide the difference over five seasons, Ovie would need to score 33 goals per season. He will be turning 36 in September, but at least he will still be motivated.  

Artemi Panarin

The Bread Man has consistently scored at a 113-point pace over each of the past two seasons. Yes, that high a point pace for both of his seasons with the Rangers. The fact that he missed 14 games last season (most of which to attend to a personal matter) might push his ranking down if you were just to look at last season's scoring race. He won't deliver elite peripherals, but he is arguably a top-5 option in pure scoring leagues. You could draft him and look to fill those peripherals elsewhere.

Mikko Rantanen

The Avalanche forward was the sixth player drafted in this mock draft, and he is also on average the sixth player being drafted in Yahoo leagues. So he will likely be gone if you're picking ninth. In pure points leagues, I might be able to justify the sixth pick on Rantanen. However, I might look elsewhere (one of the players above) if I have the sixth pick. Rantanen's peripheral categories don't stand out (low hits, has never reached 200 shots in a season). As well, he's been a bit of an injury risk throughout his career.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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