In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss Ty Smith and Mackenzie Weegar – defensemen that may be slightly overvalued in this year's fantasy drafts. 

Ty Smith

The 21-year-old defenseman finished his rookie campaign with solid numbers, posting 23 points in 48 appearances. His output was bolstered by a hot start that saw him register eight points in his first nine games, leaving him with a less impressive 15 points in his final 39 outings. Of Smith's 23 total points last year, seven came with the man advantage. He held a prominent role on the power play, averaging about two and a half minutes of PP time per game. Among New Jersey's defensemen last season, Smith displayed the most competence with the man advantage and ultimately emerged as the team's top power-play blueliner. However, following the team's acquisition of Dougie Hamilton, things look a little more complicated this year.

In today's NHL, most teams roll with one defenseman and four forwards on the power play. At present, Hamilton is a better option with the man advantage than Ty Smith. Therefore, if the Devils choose to go with one defenseman and four forwards on the top unit, Hamilton would be that one defenseman. With that being said, New Jersey's first and second power-play units saw a relatively even share of ice time last season – around a 60/40 split. As such, it's not crazy to think that Smith would still see a significant role on the power play this year, even if he's relegated to the second unit. However, if that turns out to be the case, New Jersey's most offensively gifted forwards would still be on the top unit. So even if Smith is seeing around two minutes of power-play time while playing on the second unit, he'd have a harder time putting up points. There's a world where New Jersey tries to spread out their talent evenly across two units, but even in that scenario, Jack Hughes – the team's most offensively gifted forward – is essentially guaranteed to play on the top unit with Hamilton. Another possibility sees New Jersey take the unconventional route with three forwards and two defensemen on the power play – which would allow Smith to stay on the top unit with Hamilton. However, I think would still hurt Smith's fantasy value because most of the offense would flow through Hamilton, leaving Smith with a smaller piece of the pie. There are so many different ways this could play out, but I think the most likely scenarios see Hamilton eating into Smith's production and fantasy value this year. At present, Smith's ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo leagues is 133. I wouldn't say he's being overvalued massively, but I do think that's a little early for a defenseman with 48 games of NHL experience, that plays for an unproven team, whose power-play role is shrouded in uncertainty.

Mackenzie Weegar

The Panthers blue liner had an outstanding showing in 2021. Weegar was strong offensively as he posted 36 points in 54 appearances – which translates to 55 points in 82 games. However, it didn't stop there as he finished with 101 shots, 83 blocks, 118 hits and a rating of plus-29. To say he was a multicategory beast last year would be an understatement. His performance was so impressive because he came out of nowhere and absolutely shattered our essentially nonexistent expectations. The problem is, in doing so, he made a name for himself and now he's on everyone's radar. His current ADP in Yahoo leagues is 111, just ahead of guys like Zach Werenski and Thomas Chabot. Now, I don't want to take anything away from Weegar as a player, because all accounts suggest he's a fantastic defenseman. However, I think he'll have a hard time replicating last season's level of offense. If you look at Weegar's offensive output last year, he did particularly well while Aaron Ekblad was injured, tallying 17 points in 19 games while Ekblad was sidelined. That leaves Weegar with 19 points in 35 games while Ekblad was in the lineup – still impressive, but certainly a downgrade from his production without Ekblad. Reports indicate Ekblad will be healthy to start the season, so I think we should be a little more conservative when projecting Weegar's point totals this year.

With that being said, there's still a lot to like about Weegar's fantasy outlook this season. For starters, his production last year came without much of a power-play role. With Keith Yandle out of the picture this season, there's a good chance Weegar sees a bigger role with the man advantage, opening up a new avenue for point production. In addition, Weegar should continue to benefit from playing with one of the league's best forward groups, headlined by superstars Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau, but fortified by a solid supporting cast. Florida's strong roster should also help Weegar's plus/minus – although I've never been a fan of investing too much stock into such an unpredictable category. As I mentioned before, Weegar can contribute to a wide variety of categories, so even if his offensive numbers take a slight hit this year, he can still provide value in other ways. My main point in this discussion is that with Weegar's current ADP makes it hard for him to outperform expectations and provide extra value. Once you get to the middle and late rounds of a fantasy draft, you need to extract every last bit of value from your picks in order to win your league. At this point, I feel like Weegar's ADP makes him accurately valued, if not slightly overvalued – so there's not much room for him to outperform his ADP. I think someone like Thomas Chabot or Zach Werenski may have a better chance of outperforming their ADP and providing that extra value this year.

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