Daily Fantasy Saturday: Predator Primary Stack

Stephen Dotzel

2021-11-13

We have got an absolute monster slate on tap for tonight with 12 games. Personally six to eight games is what I think is the sweep spot in terms of slate size with the fringes of that range pretty good too. But when you get into the 11 and 12 or higher area, it all becomes a bit overwhelming. When you think about it, that is 24 teams in action tonight and if you consider each team has three playable fantasy lines and two playable defensive pairs that gives you a player pool of around 312 skaters to which you have to pick the best eight. That is tough!

When it comes to these large slates there are a few things you could do to help digest things. First off, I think you need to play multiple lineups. If you're only going to do one lineup, there are so many options to choose from the odds you hit the nuts are just so slim. I would suggest using the same amount of entry fee money you normally would, but spread that across a few more lineups in a smaller buy in tournament, to give yourself more chances to land on the right lineup.

The next thing I would suggest is just going through all the teams and eliminating about half of them from your stacking consideration. Removing 12 of the 24 teams from the slate leaves you with a much more manageable player pool to work with. Even if you play 20 lineups or more, while you may think you can cover everything with that, those that enter that many lineups frequently will tell you that is not the case. So find the spots you really feel stand out, and focus your lineups there instead of trying to get a small piece of 24 different teams.

Lastly, don't get too off the wall. With so many options you probably don't need to stack some mediocre 4th line or even some 3rd lines. Sure you may need a one off here and there to save some salary but I'd focus those on forwards seeing power play time. 24 teams in action means there will undoubtedly be some top six forwards somewhere that will create good value and there will be plenty of cheap power play plugs available. It will be very difficult for a 3rd or 4th line player to elevate above 24 teams worth of players seeing much more and better opportunities.

Following my own advice from above, below are some of the top options I've narrowed this large slate down too. All prices are from DraftKings but plays can be applied to any site.

Primary Stacks

Pittsburgh – The good news for the Senators this week was that they snapped their four game streak of allowing exactly five goals, the bad news is that they've still lost six straight and nine of ten and are sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Reports out of Pittsburgh have Sidney Crosby ($6,400) returning in this one which helps bolster both top lines and allows Jeff Carter ($6,600) to bump down to center the second line. For stacking, I'll take the high upside of the first line with Crosby, Jake Guentzel ($6,800), and Bryan Rust ($5,500). The trio is fully correlated on the power play and I'll add in Kris Letang ($7,200) where I can as well

*insert team playing Arizona here* Nashville – It's no secret the Coyotes are bad, entering Friday they had one win on the entire season and even in that one they still allowed four goals. Arizona did a pretty job of keeping Patrick Kane and company under control on Friday, albeit in another losing effort, but they have to travel to Nashville for a back-to-back against a Predators team who's won seven of nine. The top line of Mikael Granlund ($5,900), Matt Duchene ($5,900), and Luke Kunin ($3,400) is coming off a stellar game on Thursday where the trio combined for three of the team's four goals and accounted for six assists. I'd make sure to have both Granlund and Duchene paired together with Kunin as just a novelty to the stack since he isn't on the power play with them. Where I can afford it, adding Roman Josi ($8,300) into the mix is a good idea.

Toronto – I tried not to do it, it becomes boring always writing about Toronto, but I can't not mention them here. Buffalo has come back to earth after their surprising start and had lost five straight until upsetting Edmonton last night. In those five losses the Sabres allowed an average of 4.4 goals in each. While they'll certainly take the win, their legs might be a little tired just one night removed from chasing Connor McDavid around and now they get Auston Matthews ($9,200) in town Saturday. In their last six games Matthews and William Nylander ($7,700) have combined for nine goals, nine assists, and 57 shots making them a great duo to stack. To help offset their hefty price tags I like sprinkling in T.J. Brodie ($2,500) into a few lineups at defense. Brodie doesn't offer much scoring but he sees more 5 on 5 time with the above duo than anybody besides Morgan Rielly (6,000), and at minimum price if he could pick up an assist that's all you would need. 

Secondary Stacks

Montreal – The Canadiens have gotten off to a miserable start this season but two of their four wins have come against Detroit which is who they play tonight. The Red Wings have allowed the third most shots in the league on home ice, while only ranking 15th in goals allowed. Given how closely shots and goals correlate with each other, I'd suspect Detroit has just been a bit lucky thus far and are due for some regression in the goals allowed department. I look at the line of Nick Suzuki ($5,200), Tyler Toffoli ($4,600), and Mike Hoffman ($4,300) as my one to target.

Winnipeg – The Kings and Jonathan Quick have turned back the clock and are playing really well of late, having held opponents to two goals or less in seven straight games. That gives me some pause but with a save percentage south of .900 for the last three years, I'm still okay stacking against Quick. Judging by Friday's practice Winnipeg looks to be rolling out a line of Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,800), Mark Scheifele ($5,400), and Blake Wheeler ($4,600) which is nice combination of upside and price. This is a line you should be able to fit in with some other top stacks. 

Value Stacks

Here a few affordable stacks you can use to round out your lineups:

Ryan O'Reilly ($4,800), Jordan Kyrou ($4,300), Pavel Buchnevich ($3,700)

Nazem Kadri ($4,400), Andre Burakovsky ($4,200), Devon Toews ($4,300)

Vincent Trocheck ($4,300), Teuvo Teravainen ($5,000), Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($2,500)

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Cheap Power Play 1 Plugs

C – Ryan Strome ($4,300), Cole Sillinger ($3,900), Christian Dvorak ($3,800)

W – Adrian Kempe ($4,000), Eeli Tolvanen ($3,500), Filip Zadina ($3,000), Patric Hornqvist ($3,000)

D – Keith Yandle ($3,800), Kale Clague ($3,300), Chris Wideman ($2,600)

Goalie Picks

Jake Allen ($7,600)

Casey DeSmith ($8,000)

Igor Shesterkin ($7,900)

Sergei Bobrovsky ($7,700)

Elvis Merzlikins ($7,500)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
DYLAN HOLLOWAY STL
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
LUKE HUGHES N.J
MATT CORONATO CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
JOHN GIBSON ANA
JET GREAVES CBJ
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency EDM Players
22.2 CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN VIKTOR ARVIDSSON
21.0 VASILY PODKOLZIN KASPERI KAPANEN LEON DRAISAITL
15.3 JEFF SKINNER DEREK RYAN COREY PERRY

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