Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll continue our retrospective on the 2018 NHL entry draft providing updates on performance since the draft, future outlooks, and pick grades.

In case you missed it, check out Part One (picks #1-10), which contains an explanation of Breakout Threshold (BT) as well as the terminology borrowed from Hockey Prospecting: Star Producer, Average Producer, Developing, and Bust.

This week, we'll kick things off by looking at the ten middle-round picks of the 2018 draft.

11th (NYI) – Oliver Wahlstrom

26pts in 70GP (0.37 ppg)

Verdict: Developing

With just five points in 18 GP, Wahlstrom is not scoring at the level many expected after putting up a 40-point pace last year. But a look under the hood suggests he’s actually progressing quite well. The first thing to note is his usage, which is indicated by the size, position, and colour of his circle in the graph below (from the Advanced Stats tab in his Frozen Tools profile, by the way):

Wahlstrom is being extremely sheltered (bottom of the chart) and not being given meaningful playing time (tiny) but he’s driving play very well (dark blue) when he is on the ice. That suggests that he can handle tougher minutes moving forward. Further, his shot (2.5/game) and hit (1.7) rates indicate that he’s involved in the play and making the most of his opportunities.

At the same time, however, he's been a bit lucky so far and his relatively low Individual Points Percentage (IPP)—which shows how often a player gets a point when his team scores and he's on the ice—is concerningly low, down to 56% from last year's 75%. Scoring stars tend to have IPPs north of 70%, for reference. Taken together, these stats show that he's performing well individually, especially with his shooting and goal-scoring, but not yet jiving with common linemates Zach Parise and Jean-Gabriel Pageau—a reality evidenced by his zero assists on the year.

Wahlstrom is a bigger player (6-2, 205 lbs) and likely has anywhere from 130-330 GP still ahead of him before we begin to truly see his 65+ point upside as a top six power forward with lots of shots and hits. In fantasy, this will be an interesting waiting game. The key will be to pounce on Wahlstrom at the right moment (say, at the end of next season), unless you can spare a bench slot for the next couple years and don’t mind sitting on him. At 11th overall, Wahlstrom still looks like a good choice here for NYI, at least in terms of the forwards available; only Joel Farabee at 14th may have been a wiser selection in hindsight.

12th (NYI) – Noah Dobson

25pts in 95GP (0.26 ppg)

Verdict: Developing

In his draft year, Dobson was billed as an all-situations defender with offensive upside—though his ceiling was thought to be lower than other top D-men from this class.

Three years later, those predictions still seem bang on. He’s playing 19 min/GP, seeing some power-play time, and already becoming one of those rare players who can post two shots, hits, and blocks per game while putting some points on the board (27-point pace). When he pushes his production into the 40s while maintaining or increasing his other contributions across the board, Dobson will be a solid own in multi-cat formats.

Is he the fifth-best defenceman in this draft? Certainly not for fantasy purposes, and probably not in terms of real-life value either. He’s being used a lot this year by NYI but in a fairly sheltered capacity and is only doing okay so far. His luck’s a bit high and his possession numbers are nothing special. Dobson's likely more of a streamer or peripherals guy who will score a bit just to put some thin icing on an otherwise plain cake.

13th (DAL) – Ty Dellandrea

5 pts in 26 GP (0.19 ppg)

Verdict: Developing

No surprises with Dellandrea. Despite strong scoring numbers as an overager two years ago in the OHL, Dellandrea is looking like a decent scoring 2C or high-end shutdown 3C at the NHL level—like a Matt Cullen or Mathieu Perreault type. Although he’s doing fine in the AHL this year (8pts in 15 GP), he’s likely not a prospect to worry about stashing in fantasy in the hopes of him taking a big step forward at some point.

That’s not to say he was a bad pick by the Stars—even though there were perhaps stronger producers still on the board by this point. Dellandrea is a strong, two-way forward with a versatile toolkit who projects as the kind of player teams call upon in close games. During his OHL years, Dellandrea was twice named best on faceoffs in the Western Conference; in 2020, he had a 59.1% success rate at the dot. Those around Dellandrea describe him as a tireless worker who is hungry to improve. In particular, he's focused on refining his edgework and face-off techniques. Expect to see him in a Stars uniform for a call-up or two this year and on a full-time basis next year.

14th (PHI) – Joel Farabee

69 pts in 127 GP (0.56 ppg)

Verdict: Developing (looking like a Star)

Farabee played on the U18 USNTDP with Wahlstrom in their draft year and seemed like the less dynamic of the two, scoring 72 points to Wahlstrom's 94 in the same number of games. He has entered the professional ranks much more seamlessly than his former counterpart, however, and last year cemented his place in the Flyers’ top six by scoring at a 57-point pace—exactly the benchmark for a Star.

So far this year, he's having some growing pains. His shots (2.2 → 1.6) and scoring (0.69 → 0.48 ppg) are down despite having good puck luck (1069 PDO) and a shooting percentage six points above his career average. In other words, his scoring is likely to slow down even further than it already has. His line with Derick Brassard and Cam Atkinson has been seeing the most offensive zone starts on the team, but Farabee consistently plays against the other team's toughest players, behind only Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny in that respect (bubble’s in the top third). He’s doing fine, not great, with these added responsibilities (bright orange) but this deployment at least indicates he has the coach's trust and is likely just going through an adjustment period as he settles in as a top player on this team.

It's safe to say Farabee will have a long, productive career in the NHL. But how productive can he be? His sophomore season with the Flyers suggests that can become a star and average 57+ points over his career with his peak seasons potentially pushing into the 70-point range. This is a 22-year-old playing in his third NHL season already holding his own against other teams' top players.

In fantasy, this looks like an excellent opportunity to buy low on Farabee. The Flyers have been floundering but might learn to take off under a new coach, having just gotten rid of Alain Vigneault. Watch to see how interim coach Mike Yeo utilizes Farabee, but he's as good a bet as anyone to become a lower-end star in this league.

15th (FLA) – Grigori Denisenko

4 pts in 7 GP (0.57 ppg)

Verdict: Developing (looking like a Bust or Average Producer)

Is Denisenko the Russian Barrett Hayton?

He captained Team Russia at several junior tournaments and has been hyped since his draft year but hasn't yet been able to translate his skill-set to the professional ranks. While players drafted before and after him have begun gaining NHL experience and even ascending to stardom, Denisenko is still failing to impress even at the AHL level. This year, playing for the Charlotte Checkers, he has only ten points in 21 games. His star potential is down to a measly 1%. The best-case scenario at this point in terms of historical comparables would be him turning into a player like Rickard Rakell—but that's not a given as he's looking like a long-shot to even play 200 NHL GP (34%) at this point.

What’s going wrong here? For one, the Panthers are currently one of the top teams in the league and are all-in on contending. Unlike rebuilding teams, which may have given Denisenko sheltered opportunities at the NHL level by now, the Panthers are bent on icing the strongest team possible. They have a very skilled top six and a grinding, versatile bottom six. It's not just a lack of opportunity, though; Denisenko just hasn't shown enough yet to earn a place anywhere in the line-up, while fellow golden boy Owen Tippett has found a spot and less-hyped prospects like Maxim Mamin, Ryan Lomberg, and Eetu Luostarinen have also now leapfrogged him for NHL time.

It also doesn't seem to be his skill-set, the reason everyone's been so excited about him all along. He's got an excellent shot:

Don't mind us, we're just watching Denisenko's game-winner on a loop all morning https://t.co/yRGLpkzhNB

— Charlotte Checkers (@CheckersHockey) December 6, 2021

He plays physical:

Grigoriy Denisenko crashes Nikolai Prokhorkin with a hit and has a small discussion about that with Viktor Tikhonov. #2018NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/kkmSpOuLPP

📢 advertisement:

— Russian Prospects (@RUSProspects) March 20, 2018

His skating is top-notch, and he's a strong playmaker too. Add it all up and it's easy to see why he was drafted 15th, and why fantasy folk have been so bullish on him being a top-tier asset. Maybe he sticks with the Panthers later this year or next, gets some games in, and starts gaining traction. Or maybe he goes back to the KHL at the end of next year when his entry-level contract (ELC) with the Panthers expires. It might be smart to sell Denisenko now before he potentially loses his former blue-chipper shine. Conversely, his value has likely never been lower, so if you have patience and a farm slot, Denisenko could be a solid buy-low. He remains an intriguing prospect despite his post-draft floundering.

16th (COL) – Martin Kaut

3 pts in 20 GP (0.15 ppg)

Verdict: Developing (looking like an Average Producer)

Kaut was an interesting choice for the Avs at 16 because he was projected as a middle six type even in his draft year—making him quite a reach in the mid-first round. Today, he's still on that trajectory, presumably getting quite close now to making the jump full time. He's played a handful of NHL games over three seasons and performed well in the AHL over the last two years especially (20 pts in 24 GP).

Nothing in particular stands out about his game: he skates well, can snipe corners and deflect pucks toward the net, and compete hard in puck battles. Think of a player like Ryan Hartman as a comparable: a career 30–40-point scorer who can play a number of roles up and down the lineup. Did you ever want Hartman on your fantasy squad (before this season's odd 70-point pace, that is)? Kaut is likely a streamer at best.

17th (NJ) – Ty Smith

26 pts in 62 GP (0.42)

Verdict: Developing (looking like a Star)

With Ty Smith, it's good news/bad news time:

Good: Smith put up a 40-point pace with the Devils as a rookie last year, which given his age and trajectory means he has a 75% chance of becoming a Star Producer. Wow!

Bad: Dougie Hamilton's success (60-point pace) and contract ($9 million x 7 years) present a substantial wrinkle on Smith's path to stardom. Smith's power play time is down 18% this year and he's more often seeing time on PP2 now. Uh oh…

Good: Smith is playing 20 minutes/night as a sophomore. Nice!

Bad: He's losing possession like a broken sieve despite incredibly sheltered deployment. Check out the usage chart below. Big bubble = lots of minutes. Southwest corner = easy minutes with lots of offensive zone starts. Dark red = terrible play-driving. In Frozen Tools' assessment, that makes him a "struggling sheltered defenceman." Ouch…

Good: The overall picture here is a young defenceman learning on the fly, still struggling to figure things out but moving in the right direction. If those possession numbers don't start to improve over the next season or two, it will be cause for concern. But for now, just sit on Smith and wait for him and the Devils to figure things out. There are many teams that roster more than one successful fantasy defenceman (SJ, COL, NAS), so Hamilton being in the picture shouldn't negatively impact him too much long term. Smith is going to pay off big time.

18th (CBJ) – Liam Foudy

5 pts in 26 GP

Verdict: Developing

What do you know off the top of your head about Liam Foudy? Here's a guess: a Columbus prospect that skates like the wind but seems to be taking a while to reach the big leagues. You think he maybe has a brother named Jean-Luc. Was that close?

Well, yeah, that’s basically still the tea on Foudy: a high-floor, low-ceiling type who has improved year after year and will soon add energy to the Blue Jackets middle six. After four OHL seasons, Foudy then split time between the Blue Jackets and their AHL affiliate in Cleveland and is now back doing quite well with the Monsters again on a line with Brendan Gaunce and Tyler Angle.

Foudy has good hands and can make plays in tight at top speed. Even if the defender hadn't fallen in this sequence, Foudy would still have been by him with a clear path to the goal. Speed like that either creates scoring opportunities or draws penalties.

Liam Foudy cuts the Marlies' lead in half with a shot into the upper left corner. @monstershockey | #CLEvsTOR pic.twitter.com/mcnIzPqA9f

— American Hockey League (@TheAHL) November 21, 2021

He'll be exciting to watch in the NHL, even if he never becomes a Star.

19th (PHI) – Jay O’Brien

0 pts in 0 GP

Verdict: Developing (trending steadily towards Bust territory)

Picked out of high school like intriguing 2021 prospect Brody Lamb, O'Brien is looking like the biggest bust in the 2018 first round. It's always tricky with prospects playing the high school circuit because their numbers often look absolutely insane. In his draft year, for instance, O'Brien put up 80 points in only 30 games for Thayer Academy, a total that included 43 goals. The United States High School Preparatory League (USHL-Prep) is a mixed bag of teams, with a handful of elite schools including Thayer and, most notably, Shattuck St. Mary's. There have been so few players to come out of this league and have meaningful careers in the NHL, however, that the NHLe conversion rates for the USHL-Prep are still more or less indeterminate.

For that reason, among others, it’s difficult to assess the NHL viability of high school players. Lamb, for instance, had the 5th highest star potential (40%) in the 2021 draft ahead of players like William Eklund and Kent Johnson. But now he's struggling in the USHL with only 9 points in 19 games. Adjusting to the increased quality of competition once you leave high school rinks, in other words, is an immense challenge even for those who score nearly three points per game at that level. O'Brien is currently playing for Boston College in the NCAA. It's possible he plays all four years in college (this is his third) and then makes the jump to the NHL like Jimmy Vesey. But if that's the best-case scenario, Flyers fans will still not be impressed.

20th (LA) – Rasmus Kupari

5 pts in 25 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like an Average Producer)

Kupari is similar to Foudy in that he's known for his elite speed. Along with Quinton Byfield, Sean Durzi, and Arthur Kaliyev, he's one of the first young players in the Kings' bountiful system to begin pushing for a spot with the big club—he's played exclusively at the NHL level this year so far. His ice time has been minimal and his possession numbers have been sub-par but at least he's beginning to get some NHL games in.

With a Star potential of 1%, Kupari is generally going to be a player to avoid in fantasy except as a streamer or a speculative add in deep leagues. In terms of comparables, think of players like Craig Smith, Alexandre Texier, and Jason Dickinson, complementary scorers who can go on brief scoring runs and play up and down the line up. Given the incredible D depth in this draft, the Kings' relative weakness at that position, and some of the defencemen still on the board at this point back in 2018 (Lundqvist, Sandin, Merkley, Perunovich, Addison), this pick isn't necessarily ageing well. At the same time, however, Kupari is looking like a decent bottom six player who will be looking to carve out a role on a young Kings team on the rise over the next few years.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.