Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team league counting G, A, +/-, PIM, PPPts, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, and BLK as skater categories how would the following forwards be ranked in terms of their keeper value: Timo Meier, William Nylander, Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, Martin Necas, Teuvo Teravainen, Drake Batherson, Jack Hughes, Trevor Zegras, Dylan Larkin?

Although the questions specified this was for a keeper, what wasn't made clear is the relevant time frame, as that will matter. I'll put my ratings into three categories: next season, three seasons from now, and five plus seasons.

Player	Rank for next season	Rank for three seasons from now	Rank for five plus seasons from now
Meier	1	2	4
Nylander	4	6	8
Laine	8	7	7
Scheifele	7	9	9
Necas	10	8	6
Teravainen	9	10	10
Batherson	3	4	5
Hughes	2	1	2
Zegras	6	3	1
Larkin	5	5	3

As shown, no player is in the top three for all time frames, and Teravainen is the sole player in the bottom three for each. Nylander's rating slips the most, as soon the younger players will surpass him, and he's not great in banger leagues even now.

Some might think Laine deserves to be ranked higher, but I'm concerned he is mentally not going to get back to where he once was and strike fear into defenses like he did. That being said, if he goes to the right team and/or plays with the right center, his value could go through the roof. While many might see Meier and fear one year wonder, as I noted in a column a few weeks ago, if we focus on players who had a point per game season while also averaging 4+ SOG per game, they tended to have staying power. Plus, these categories are very well suited for him. Batherson plays a similar style, and I believe he can be just a bit less of a force than Meier.

I'm less optimistic about Necas than the other young talents simply because he's not a center nor a big volume shooter, even though he should rise in time. Scheifele is already showing his age, and that will only get worse. Zegras and Hughes will be the best of the best by year five, maybe sooner if their teams improve. Larkin should be just a notch them below through the years.

Topic #2 – What's going on with Ilya Samsonov? He was as highly touted as Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin upon arriving in the NHL, but has been a major disappointment. Is there still reason to be hopeful?

The troubles Samsonov has been having can be traced back further than his first NHL season, as, after three KHL seasons that saw him post a SV% of .925 or better and GAA of 2.31 or lower, when he arrived in North America he proceeded to have a lackluster debut campaign, with a 2.70 GAA and .898 SV% in the AHL. This is in stark contrast to Shesterkin, who dominated in the AHL to the tune of a 1.90 GAA and .934 SV% and Sorokin, who went directly to the NHL.

Many figured that was just an adjustment season; and once in the NHL, he'd rise to the level he'd been in Russia. Fast forward to now, and it hasn't happened. In fact, if anything he seems to be getting worse, with a GSAA that's poised to drop for a second straight season and a GAA that's set to rise yet again. Let's also not forget he's turning 25 soon, so this isn't the case of a very young goalie working the kinks out. Yes, plenty of netminders don't fully hit their stride until their late 20s; however, usually there are signs beforehand of things heading in the right direction, and those just aren't there for Samsonov.

What do comparables suggest? Looking at goalies who, like Samsonov, had at 2+ seasons with a quality start percentage of 50% or less in 19+ games with a SV% of .910 or less all by the hockey age (i.e. age as of February 1st) of 24 and within their first three seasons, we get Brian Elliott, Steve Mason, and Karri Ramo. Ouch. Although past results are not determinative, being in the same boat as these three does not bode well for Samsonov to succeed long term.

There's also the fact that Vitek Vanecek, who was looked upon as a fine young goalie that could take some of the pressure off Samsonov, has instead outplayed him. With both set to be RFAs this summer, it's unlikely that Samsonov, despite his pedigree, will receive a contract that will anoint him as Washington's #1 netminder. In fact, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Samsonov opts to return to the familiar pastures of the KHL. If there is good news though, it's that Vanacek won't be in a position to get huge money, leaving it possible for Samsonov, if he stays in the US, to outplay Vanacek and rise to the level that was expected of him. If I owned him in a keeper, I'd probably be looking to sell given what we've seen, the comparables, and Vanacek's superior play.

Topic #3 – In a league counting PIM and +/-, which two of these three figure to be best options for the rest of the season: David Perron, Zach Hyman, and Michael Bunting?

This is an interesting question. On the one hand you have a player in Perron who probably has the most talent of the bunch but then two, i.e., Bunting and Hyman, who are in arguably more favorable situations when it comes to their deployment.

Perron is a UFA to be, which makes it strange he's on track to have his worst season since his 2017-18 renaissance in Vegas. He seems to be a victim of St. Louis rolling three lines without one line getting leaned on much more than the other. Still, he's on PP1, at least for the time being. His IPPs and OZ% are down, but not so much as to justify this much of a drop in production, and his SOG rate is reasonable. However, the combination of his age and suboptimal deployment likely means he may continue to produce worse than expected.

Bunting is the Toronto line lottery winner, as Nick Ritchie didn't pan out and Ondrej Kase is still very much a band-aid boy. Still though, for the season as a whole Bunting is getting 15:15 per night plus PP scraps. As a result, it appears he's still the 50- to 55-point scorer he was in Arizona last season.

Ironically, Hyman used to be the one in that cushy spot in Toronto, but then inked a UFA deal with Edmonton. For a while he was stapled to Connor McDavid; however, it's not certain what will occur under Edmonton's new coaching regime. Still, the fact that Hyman was signed for as much as he was, and has past experience as a steadying influence on a scoring line, likely means he'll be slotted with McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl on a regular basis. Less certain, however, is his role on the PP, as there is only room for one more forward out there with RNH, McDavid and Draisaitl, with Hyman and Kane, plus the likes of Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto all vying for that coveted spot. Should Hyman not find himself on PP1, and he wasn't for game one under the new coach, he might not be a safe bet to outperform Bunting; but if he does find his way back onto the top unit, he could ignite, much like he did when he started the season with 15 points in 14 games. Then again, the fact that he then went on to tally just seven points in his next 17 games is concerning and could mean he's a riskier bet than Bunting.

Had this been last season, the easy answer would've been Perron. But, his production is lagging and, perhaps more concerning, there are no immediate signs it should rebound as Perron's ice time is – and should remain – down, and he's not played well despite a looming UFA payday. As for Bunting, he's likely done enough to keep his "spot," plus his competition in the form of Ritchie and Kase essentially took themselves out of the running. Although Bunting's ice time doesn't look great, it has risen with each quarter, as has his scoring rate. Lastly there's Hyman, who was in a great spot while RNH was hurt and before Kane arrived. Now things are muddier for Hyman, although one would think he's paid enough to ensure he doesn't languish on in the bottom six, though a spot on PP1 is less certain.

This is very close, as I could see them all scoring within just a few points of each other over the second half. In the end, I think Perron has to be one of the picks, as I feel he'll awaken at some point, especially given his pending UFA status and likely locked in PP1 spot. Hyman would've been the second pick a month ago. Now though, it's less clear. I think that with PIM and +/- both counting, that's enough to put Bunting in second place ever so slightly above Hyman, who is the odd man out.

Topic #4 – What is the outlook for Petr Mrazek? Can he make any noise this season now that Jack Campbell has come back to earth? What about 2022-23 and beyond?

The plan going into this season was for Mrazek to compete to be the starter, if not have the edge on the gig. After all, he makes more than twice as much as Campbell and is signed for another two seasons, whereas Campbell is a UFA this summer. As has often been the case in Mrazek's career, circumstances stood in the way, this time – much like last season – injuries. In fact, Mrazek has never started more than 40 games for a team other than Detroit, and that encompasses the last four seasons. He also just turned 30, which, when it comes to goalies, is certainly not too old to still be effective; however, it does raise legitimate concerns that his already well-documented injury issues might not improve.

For this season, he is getting back to health just as Campbell has started to look human again. If Mrazek can stay healthy and outperform Campbell, he could run with the starting gig for the rest of 2021-22 and then be the frontrunner for it come 2022-23, as Campbell likely will aim to ink a UFA deal probably at a price too high for Toronto in view of what they have committed to Mrazek plus big name skaters. Toronto has some decent younger netminder options who could push Mrazek for starts next season; but again, due to his price tag, he should hold the edge if – and it's a big if – he can stay healthy and no other goalie of note is signed.

What could we expect from him if he is healthy? Although past results don't predict the future, Mrazek has had a pattern in his career where he has a very good season – notably 2015-16 and 2018-19 – and then follows that with a subpar season. In other words, the next time – if indeed there is a next time – he plays 40+ games, if he holds true to form he should do well. Moreover, while his quality start percentage over the past two seasons hasn't been very good, he had zero Really Bad Starts last season and for 2021-22 has just one. But let's also not forget that dating back to 2010-11, and excluding Campbell, no goalie who had started 40+ games for the Leafs had less than a 2.67 GAA and only one – Jonathan Bernier – had a SV% over .920. Look no further than what happened to Frederik Andersen there, and how he played before and after his stint in Toronto as evidence that being a goalie for this up-tempo team generally leads to very good numbers in terms of wins, but poor peripherals.

I think that for 2021-22 Mrazek is a good grab as a third goalie, either to spot start if Campbell remains the top netminder, or to play more if Campbell loses the crease. If the Leafs opt not to sign another goalie in the offseason, then Mrazek would hold considerable value. For that to occur he'd likely have to play a lot and stay healthy for the rest of the season. Instead, given his history I'd bank on the team signing a cheap veteran as insurance, someone along the lines of Thomas Greiss, Craig Anderson, Mikko Koskinen or Martin Jones. Or, if they don't have faith in Mrazek, they'd instead look to the likes of Darcy Kuemper, Pavel Francouz, Ville Husso, Joonas Korpisalo, or perhaps, if he can be convinced not to retire, Marc-Andre Fleury. Long story short, there is potential; but several things would have to go right, so it might be best to look elsewhere unless Mrazek can be grabbed – via pick or trade – cheaply and it would not cost a fantasy team an otherwise more coveted keeper spot to hold onto him.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team, cap, points-only keeper, a GM has several offers for his Nikita Kucherov, namely Kucherov for Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti and Kirby Dach, or Kucherov for Patrick Kane, Max Pacioretty, and Tage Thompson, or Kucherov for Kane, Tony DeAngelo, and Thompson if Zach Werenski is added to the Kucherov side. Should the GM proceed with any of these deals?

The GM's full roster is as follows, with all but 8 non-minors players kept each year:

C- John Tavares, Barclay Goodrow, Sebastian Aho, Dylan Strome, Adrian Kempe
LW – Victor Olofsson, Sam Bennett, Andrei Burakovsky, Sonny Milano, Evander Kane
RW – Jake Guentzel, Conor Garland, Kucherov, Dustin Brown, Anthony Duclair
D – Matt Dumba, Quinn Hughes, Werenski, Shayne Gostisbehere, Samuel Girard, Mattias Ekholm
G – Sergei Bobrovsky, Juuse Saros
I.R. – Jaden Schwartz
Rookies: Hendrix Lapierre, Joe Veleno, Connor McMichael, Logan Stankoven, Fabian Lysell, Alex Newhook

The easiest potential deal to assess is the first one, which only would be worthy of consideration if the team was embarking upon a rebuild. But this team has solid pieces to it, isn't too young or old, and some of its rookies are poised to make their marks soon. Even if this deal somehow was more tempting, I still think it'd need to be sweetened, as not only is Kucherov a bona fide stud but he's also a winger, where there are fewer truly ultra-elite players available.

Beyond that, even if all three of these other youngsters turn out to be good or even very good, it's unlikely they'll be so good so soon as to offset the loss of the outstanding Kucherov. Or to put it another way, if all three of them turn out to be hypothetical dimes, and Kucherov is a quarter, technically three dimes are worth more than a quarter; however, they'd also occupy three roster spots, and even if a team didn't do the deal and rostered two other players not as good as the dimes of these three, if they were just nickels then together with Kucherov's quarter the sum total would be 35 cents, which would be more than the 30 cents of the three dimes.

The other two deals are ones I probably wouldn't accept as is, but they could be conversation starters – that is, it might be possible to work from these offers to craft a deal. One concern for each though is the age of Kane and, for the first, Patches. Plus, although DeAngelo has produced extremely well this season and been on his best behavior, who's to say that will continue; and this team already has one player with possible off ice issues in Evander Kane. Thompson would be a nice asset to obtain, since as noted in my last Goldipucks column he looks to be poised to do even better than he has thus far this season. Though he's not ideally suited to points only, with his HITs plus PP acumen.

If it was me, and I wanted to try and make one of these other two deals possibly work, I'd probably keep Patrick Kane as part of the deal, since the type of game he plays should allow him to succeed for several more seasons even as Chicago might struggle as a team. Thompson, although not best suited for this format, would also make a nice add.

But what I'd try to do is include Bobrovsky, since he seems like a perfect sell high given his age plus his recent tendency to follow a good season with at least one poor one. In return I'd try to get Igor Shesterkin, who looks poised to enter the top echelon of netminders and is someone who should be obtainable for a Kucherov. Of course, if this other team doesn't have Shesterkin, or, for that matter, another young stud goalie, I'd ask for DeAngelo straight up without having to give back Werenski. The other option is to just say no and hold Kucherov, which I think would be perfectly reasonable and perhaps even what's best dictated.

Topic #6 – In a points only league, which two of the following five players would make the most sense to keep: Connor McMichael, Filip Chytil, Cole Perfetti, Morgan Frost, William Eklund?

Not included in the thread are several key pieces of information for this particular league, namely whether positions matter, if it's more important to keep players who'll make the soonest impact or only who'll be best long term, and finally who the team's other keepers are projected to be. This serves as a good reminder that when facing keeper dilemmas in your league be sure to see the issue from all angles and with all relevant factors figuring into the decision. For purposes of answering the question, I'll pick the two who I think will pan out best, not accounting for other factors.

Though I like McMichael's skill set, I worry that by the time he's coming into his own the rest of the Caps team will be well past their prime. While to some degree that could allow him to gain the benefit of playing with them and then have the focus shift to him, it might be unrealistic to expect him to be on a par with the rest of these players. Similarly, the same could be said about Frost, although as a center it's perhaps easier to envision a path for him to succeed. But still, the concern is enough to not put him in the top two either.

If Ryan Strome re-signs with the Rangers Chytil's path into the top six will be more difficult to envision, at least in the near term. But even if it is delayed, the Rangers have the likes of Alexis Lafreniere and Kappo Kakko, not to mention Adam Fox, Nils Lundkvist and Igor Shesterkin, who will all be around by the time Chytil gets his chance to be a top six center. Chytil also showed some of his talent in 2020-21 when he scored above the point per every other game mark despite low ice time in general and barely any PP minutes.

Eklund is the youngest of the five, but the one – as of now – with the highest potential ceiling. He also didn't look out of place in his nine-game cameo with the Sharks this season. His future should be bright, as although San Jose is somewhat of an aging team they also have a number of talented skaters whose ETA in the NHL should come in the next 1-5 years, thus aligning well with Eklund's trajectory. Still, I think the core on the Rangers is young enough, but comes with fewer question marks.

Perfetti has seen his first NHL action this season and fared well. His team also hasn't been shy about using him with their other top talent. Winnipeg is in a sweet spot where they have aging talent from whom Perfetti can learn, but also enough players who are young or in their primes as to be able to help Winnipeg's offense remain potent as Perfetti continues to develop.

For certain Perfetti is one of the five, as his situation is the best among them and he also has as much if not more raw talent. The other spot boils down to Eklund vs. Chytil from where I sit. I think the decision gets made based on whether indeed Strome re-signs with the Rangers, since if he doesn't Chytil's stock rises considerably. Otherwise, he's likely relegated to the bottom six for at least the next few seasons, which would be long enough for Eklund to make his impact, even if the Sharks are not going to be quite as good of a team on paper as the Sharks. So Chytil if Strome leaves, or Eklund if Strome stays, plus Perfetti either way.

Topic #7 – An underperforming team in an 18 team points only keeper (keep 12 of 21 players, including at least 3 defensemen) league where forward positions don't matter is contemplating a move to trade Nico Hischier for Josh Norris. Should they make the trade?

This trade even being contemplated shows that Hischier's stock has, as a former number one overall pick, dropped considerably while Norris' has risen. One key is Norris hasn't even played in 100 career NHL games as I write this, while Hischier, despite being less than six months older than Norris and having been hurt several times in his young career, entered this, his fifth season, having already played 230. That games played figure for Hischier is key, as he's supposed to be at his breakout threshold yet hasn't taken strides and is just producing at his usual ~55-point level. Compare that to Norris, who before getting hurt was on pace to score at a higher rate than Hischier ever had in this, just his second full season.

Norris is a goal-scoring center, but that is meaningless in a points-only pool. Even still, there are only two players who are classified as centers on hockey-reference.com and have both a higher SOG rate per game and higher shooting percentage than him – Leon Draisaitl and Filip Forsberg. That's quite promising for Norris.

Still though, Norris isn't the only blue-chip center in the Ottawa organization, as they also have Tim Stutzle. But Stutzle can be – and already has been – used as a wing. Plus, Norris not only has a goal-scoring element to his game, but an edge, as he's dished out more than one hit per game in his NHL career. That's a package any team would covet, certainly including Ottawa.

Looking at Hischier, in each of his first four seasons he played 21+ games, while also averaging between 0.5 and 0.75 points and under 2.4 SOG per game. Dating back to 1990-91, no other center met all these criteria in each of their first four seasons by age 23; however, a total of seven did so three times: Sam Gagner, Mikael Granlund, Marcus Johansson, Sam Reinhart, Mike Ricci, Nick Schmaltz, and Alexander Wennberg. How have they all since fared? One point per game season (Mike Ricci) in total, although Reinhart also might reach the mark in 2021-22. Of the rest, only Granlund ever recorded more than 60 points in a season, although the jury is still out when it comes to Schmaltz. Hischier, having played that much that early while being consistently good but not great does seem to suggest bigger and brighter things aren't likely in store, with it as likely as not that he'll never have a 60-point season and if he does that he probably won't do much better than that, let alone year in year out.

If that wasn't enough to be wary of Hischier, Jack Hughes, who looked iffy his first two seasons, has made huge strides in 2021-22 and appears every bit a #1 center. Although there have been many teams which had two centers who both produced well, from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh, to Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci in Boston to name just a few, it's not clear Hischier will have what it takes to form a one-two punch with Hughes, who, in turn, should get more favorable deployment. In fact, that's already happening, as Hughes sees next to no SH duty, but Hischier does, leading in part to Hischier being on track to have an OZ% under 45% for the second straight season. Make no mistake – this is already Hughes' team, and Hischier is becoming an afterthought.

I think the clear choice here is to trade Hischier for Norris. Yes, Norris' goal scoring and Hits don't matter; however, he looks to be cementing his status as a #1 center while Hischier has iffy past comparables and is being pushed aside by Jack Hughes more so with each passing game.

Topic #8 – In a 10 Team, keep 7, start 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1F, 1U, 4D, 2G, plus 6 Bench, 4IR, with categories of G, A, PIM, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, SV%, SV, SO, where teams can trade keeper spots to be able to keep more than 7, a team that is looking to win this season has the following players who it's looking at keeping: Alex Ovechkin, Brad Marchand, Mika Zibanejad, Roman Josi, Adam Fox, J.T. Miller, Tom Wilson, Evander Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Jason Robertson, Nicolaj Ehlers, Tyler Bertuzzi, Tony DeAngelo, Charlie McAvoy, Robin Lehner, and Roope Hintz.

Should the team try to trade a player to allow for 8 keepers instead of 7? If so, should it be one of Wilson, Millier, or DeBrincat due to them having poor schedules during what would be the league's playoff schedule?

In a league where nearly 250 total players are owned, this is a lot of very good players from which to choose. While that does mean losing some guys for nothing due to less than a third of one's roster being kept, the reality is this team was able to draft this well, so chances are it can do so again. Plus, it does enable the luxury – which I'm guessing other teams cannot afford – of trading a contributor now in order to be able to keep an extra player, or even two. And I think this team definitely has a surplus of forwards in particular whom it could trade.

With Kane and Wilson, I think one of them could be the guy who's moved. Wilson is a steadier contributor; but Kane has more home run potential. Both though should be coveted in a league with PIM and HIT counting. The fact that Wilson's schedule is not ideal for the playoffs is an astute observation and could be the tie-breaker here. The issue is both might be too good to net only a keeper spot in return, although when you look at it more closely, a keeper spot is kind of a two for one, as someone is moved who'd otherwise take up a keeper spot and also getting a keeper spot back, so one player for, in essence, two keeper spots. When you think of it that way, it makes trading Kane or Wilson more palatable.

Who else could be moved? I know he's been outstanding this season; however, Roman Josi has yet to put together two elite seasons in a row and has a career best in IPP and a second best in PP IPP. If you sell him now, it should indeed be a sell high. He might be too good to be moved for a keeper spot straight up though. What I'd do is try to move him and Husso in order to get a better goalie to help you not only now but also to keep for next season. Three of the four categories for goalies reward playing volume, so I'd want to get a guy like Thatcher Demko or Tristan Jarry.

Who would my keepers be if I owned this team and assuming both deals are done? The goalie that's traded for, plus Ovi, Marchand, Zibs, Fox, and whoever isn't traded of Kane and Wilson for certain. After that the waters get muddier, as there's the likes of DeAngelo, McAvoy, Bertuzzi, Hintz, Robertson, and Miller for the final two spots. Miller is the safest bet, so I'm probably opting for him. I could see gambling on DeAngelo, although potentially having him and Kane both would be a bit risky, so maybe not DeAngelo. McAvoy is strong, but I feel he's not quite at the level of a must keep. That leaves the two Dallas forwards and Bertuzzi. With his stat stuffing plus his team being on the rise, I think I like Bertuzzi the most. So the final list of keepers would be the goalie that is traded for, whomever isn't traded out of Kane or Wilson, Ovi, Marchand, Zibs, Fox, Miller, and Bertuzzi.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag needs questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.