Fantasy Hockey Poll: Future Draft Fallers

Rick Roos

2022-03-23

I'm not actually in any Yahoo leagues, and none of my other leagues have categories perfectly aligned with those scored in standard Yahoo leagues, namely G, A, +/-, PPPts, HIT, SOG, W, SO, SV%, and GAA. Those things having been said, I find Yahoo draft averages to be a very good way to assess a player's value before I conduct my own drafts. For example, it allows me to see who might slip to a later round or could get snatched up early, and to help tier players, particularly goalies. It's also a useful exercise to look back at this stage of a season and see where players were picked where, and that's the area on which we'll focus for this month's poll.

Of course every season some players' on ice performance will not have befitted them having been picked as early a round as they were. The question is, which players will never again be drafted as early as they were for the 2020-21 season. For clarity, I don't mean picked later for just next season, as it's safe to say most if not all of these players indeed will be chosen in a later average round for 2022-23. I'm talking about at any point over the rest of their careers – that is, I'm referring to players who, no matter what, will never again be drafted, on average, as early as they were for 2021-22.

What that means is you should vote for every player (i.e., none, one, some, or all) who you think won't be selected, on average, in any Yahoo draft in any future season earlier than what was their overall average selection for 2021-22. Lastly, you might not see several seemingly obvious names on this list, as I tried to pick players for whom there might be uncertainty, versus guys where it's essentially a foregone conclusion they won't ever be picked, on average, earlier again than they were for 2021-22. Also, I omitted players who are no longer fantasy relevant even in pretty deep leagues.

With all that out of the way, here are the 20 voting choices, in alphabetical order with their 2021-22 average Yahoo draft position in parentheses. Your task is to vote for any of the 20 you believe will never get picked, on average, that early again for any future season.

Tyson Barrie (62nd overall)

As disappointing as Barrie's season has been, let's not forget that poolies were ready to stick a fantasy fork in him after 2019-20, only to see him be reborn in the form of the leading d-man scorer in the entire NHL. Granted, he's now 30 and Evan Bouchard is looming; however, it might be premature to declare Barrie duzno.

MacKenzie Blackwood (114th overall)

I know I raised a few eyebrows when I dug up some negative data and comparables in covering Blackwood in a Goldipucks column right before this season. Yet when he has managed to play this season he's done nothing to disprove my findings. Also, Nico Daws has performed well enough at just age 21 to look like he could end up being the chosen one, although Blackwood is still only 25, so never say never I suppose.

Jordan Binnington (85th overall)

On pace to see his GAA rise and SV% fall for the third straight season, Binnington has essentially lost the St. Louis starting gig. Still, Ville Husso likely will leave as a UFA and the Blues committed enough to Binnington so as to give him nine lives. The question is whether he's already used most of them and, if not, whether he'll just find himself in a similar predicament next season when faced with whomever St. Louis brings in as its second netminder.

Jack Campbell (60th overall)

What a difference a couple of months makes, as Campbell went from a Vezina-like first quarter to a so-so second quarter, to an utterly terrible third quarter, and Q4 wasn't looking any better before he got hurt. Let's also not forget all this is happening as he plays for a UFA deal; so if he can't find a way to step up, and given that he was essentially seen as a bust less than two years ago, this might indeed be the last time Campbell is ever drafted as early as he was for 2021-22.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (131st overall)

No one was expecting OEL to be "the guy" upon arriving in Vancouver, what with upstart Quinn Hughes already putting up stellar numbers. Still, poolies figured he'd find a way to hit the score sheet enough to make him still a decent fantasy asset. Fast forward to now, and OEL looks to be playing tough minutes and not managing to produce. His best likely is behind him, and his draft spot might start to reflect that.

Philipp Grubauer (68th overall)

Realistically no one thought Grubauer and Seattle would be the second coming of Vegas and Marc-Andre Fleury, but Grubauer's stats have been dreadful. Could he have been someone who looked better than he was due to playing for a great Avs team and upping his effort level as a UFA? He's young enough to turn things around and signed to a large enough contract as to have a long leash; but expecting a return to anything more than mediocrity might be a reach.

Connor Hellebuyck (25th overall)

Thought by many to be the best fantasy goalie not named Andrei Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck has ruined the season of countless fantasy teams. Plus, this is happening despite Winnipeg's defense having arguably improved in the offseason. He's still a workhorse, plus he rebounded big time after his prior worst season; but that was four years ago, and with Hellebuyck set to turn 29 in May it's not clear whether he'll ever restore the trust of poolies to pick him this early again.

Petr Mrazek (85th overall)

Brought to Toronto with the expectation he'd push Campbell for starts and then perhaps be the #1 goalie if/when Campbell left as a UFA this summer, Mrazek has done what he always seems to do, and that's get hurt. But whereas last season when he did play he performed well, that has not been the case for 2021-22, making it likely that he'll be the back-up or 1B once 2021-22 rolls around, if he's not bought out.

Ryan O'Reilly (61st overall)

After posting a 70+ point scoring rate in three straight seasons, ROR is on pace to record his worst scoring pace in seven years, which is disconcerting enough on its own but even more so due to his age and the fact that St. Louis now has another capable center in Robert Thomas. ROR is paid well; but that might not be enough to keep him from becoming what's essentially a third line center.

T.J. Oshie (89th overall)

Father time seemed to be looking the other way when, at the ripe old age of 34, Oshie matched his career best scoring pace in 2020-21. This season though, Oshie has struggled not only to stay on the ice but to do well when he does play. He still has a stranglehold on PP1 time, but one has to wonder how long that will last, and if his injury woes will only worsen from here.

Max Pacioretty (35th overall)

When Parcioretty has managed to take the ice during the 2021-22 this season, he's fared pretty much as well as expected. And the bulk of that was before Jack Eichel arrived on the scene. Still, at age 33, and now with more injury concerns than ever, is it realistic to expect Patches to be selected this early again?

Ondrej Palat (74th overall)

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A career best output in 2020-21, plus the prospect of playing alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point for a full season, led to Palat being grabbed this early even though it was unlikely he'd see any PP1 time. And although the trio has not played much together due to Kucherov missing games, Palat's output has clearly been a step down, and he's about to turn 31, making it difficult to picture him being chosen so early again.

David Pastrnak (8th overall)

Make no mistake – Pasta is a superb fantasy asset and is likely several years away from slowing. Nevertheless, eighth overall is really early for someone who is looking less superhuman when separated from Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, which is like gazing into a crystal ball for his future. While no one is writing Pasta off, envisioning him as a top ten pick again suddenly seems iffy.

Alex Pietrangelo (48th overall)

For someone who was supposed to be a big contributor in Vegas, Pietrangelo is on pace for yet another good but not great season in his second campaign with the Knights. That doesn't cut it for someone picked this early, who also happens to be old enough – at 32 – such that a return to past glory seems all the less likely.

Ilya Samsonov (68th overall)

The youngest player on the list, Samsonov's struggles have looked all the worse due to the success of the other two high profile Russian netminders who came onto the scene over the past few seasons, namely Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin. What's more worrisome is Samsonov has struggled in every one of his seasons in North America, dating back to even his lone AHL campaign. Percentage-wise it wouldn't be surprising for one of three highly touted prospects to be a bust, especially when it comes to the difficult to predict position of goalie.

Tyler Seguin (73rd overall)

Although he's looked somewhat better after a dreadful start, when Seguin was picked 73rd overall poolies were counting on him returning to his past glory, not becoming an afterthought to Roope Hintz. And although Seguin is by no means over the hill at just 30, he's been playing in the NHL since he was a teen and probably won't be able to ascend back to the previous heights expected of someone drafted that early.

Cam Talbot (64th overall)

With just one year left on his current deal, and Kaapo Kahkonen eagerly waiting to assume control of the crease, Talbot looks like he might enter 2022-23 as, at best a 1A and at worst a lame duck back-up, and that's assuming he isn't traded. Regardless, it's difficult to envision he gets picked anywhere near this early. By the time he's a UFA in 2023 he'll be 36 years old, making it difficult to foresee him landing in a spot where he can shine yet again.

Vincent Trocheck (155th overall)

Given that his superb 2020-21 only resulted in him being picked, on average, 155th overall, it immediately raises concerns that Trocheck won't be grabbed that early again given his steep drop in production plus his other recent subpar seasons. Still, he's an impending UFA; and with the hype that will accompany his signing, perhaps poolies will reach for him in 2022-23, or a later season if he recaptures his past magic at the next step in his career.

Linus Ullmark (89th overall)

Here all of us were worried that Tuukka Rask would be the one to displace Ullmark from his gig as the Boston starter. Instead, Jeremy Swayman is turning in a rookie performance for the ages, and in the process likely turning Ullmark into an expensive 1B, or possible trade bait, after which he probably won't be picked as early again, unless he lands in a great spot.

Semyon Varlamov (50th overall)

Speaking of trade bait goalies, there's Varlamov, who a year ago was in the midst of having a season many thought should've earned him a Vezina nomination. How does he follow that up? By playing some of his worst hockey. As I write this, Varlamov has not yet been traded but he may have by the time you're reading, or, if not, then over the summer. And if he lands either in Edmonton or Toronto, the hype might be enough to get him picked early again for 2022-23.

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To review, the criteria for a player to get your vote is that he will never again – not just for the 2022-23 season – be picked, on average, as early in Yahoo leagues as he was, on average, for this season. As such, this is one of those polls where you conceivably could end up voting for all 20 players if you believe each of them fits the bill. Think it over, and click here to cast your votes.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag column runs next week and it's full. But it's never too early to submit your question to me for the following edition. To get yours to me, private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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