Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week is a reminder not to panic on your elite-level prospects during their figuring-it-out phase and a survey of a few CHL players having excellent goal-scoring seasons.

I’ve seen some Byfield owners low-key panicking recently about his four points in 22 games, so maybe there’s a buy-low window here for savvy managers—like what’s going on with Alexis Lafreniere right now. In most cases, people invested a ton of capital to trade for or draft these players, and so far, the returns just aren’t there. The hardest thing in fantasy is having patience. If you know when to strike, you can exploit impatient managers to nab players relatively cheaply before they hit that next level.

For example, did anyone sell or buy low on Cole Caufield this year? 17 points in his last 12 games. Just wait until that guy hits his Breakout Threshold, my goodness.

It’s not a new pattern. There is routinely incredible hype around the top few picks of a draft that hits a crescendo in June and then slowly tails off until those players finally begin to excel at the NHL level. That can take a while. Jack Hughes scored at a sub-50-point pace for two years before exploding this year. Nathan Mackinnon had a great rookie season but then followed that up with three sub-60-point pace seasons before roaring into the over-point-per-game territory he’s lived in ever since. There are tons of examples.

I’ve seen managers sell low on Hughes and get what they could because his potential so vastly outweighed his production, but the 20-year-old’s Hockey Prospecting profile has looked like a computer glitch this whole time:

So if you’re a Byfield owner, look at Hughes, Caufield, et. al. and just have patience. Sure, his profile isn’t as shiny as Hughes’ and his star potential has fallen almost by half since his D0. And he’s doing incredibly poorly in terms of play driving relative to his teammates despite being very sheltered. Plus there’s his lack of production, peripherals, and faceoff wins…

But these are all red flags you can wave in front of the Byfield owner in your league if you don’t have him yet. Here are a few counterpoints if you do: Byfield was quite a bit younger than Lafreniere and his other peers at the top of the ’20 draft, meaning he still has further to come in his development. He’s a big guy and might take up to twice as long (400 NHL GP) to hit his upside. Plus, he’s still only 19 right now and is coming back from missing a significant stretch due to an ankle injury. If you already drafted or traded for him, that means you’re likely rebuilding, and Byfield is still exactly the kind of player you want to build around in fantasy: big, fast, smart, and skilled. His pedigree means he’ll continue getting prime opportunities and deployment. The Kings have a ton of great prospects on a similar timeline to him (Arthur Kaliyev, Brandt Clarke, Alex Turcotte & Co.), and he can apprentice behind the ageless Anze Kopitar at C for the next few years while he acclimates to the NHL.

Nothing has changed in Byfield’s long term evaluation since his stocks were sky-high at the draft. He’s just in that bumpy period that almost all top picks go through.

Quinton Byfield's first NHL goal is a laser 🔥 @LAKings pic.twitter.com/HFrv9sirQJ

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 28, 2022

Surveying the top goal scorers in the CHL in particular—no one sticks out for goals in the NCAA or USHL even though many (ie. Bobby Brink) are having strong seasons—there are a few players having particularly noteworthy seasons.

OHL

Luke Evangelista (NAS), profiled here about a month ago, continues to lead the OHL in goal scoring with 48 in 51 games for the London Knight. This is essentially Evangelista's D+1 year although he did get in 14 AHL games last year while the OHL was shut down. For reference, here are the D+1 goal totals from several fairly recent OHL graduates known for their goal scoring: Alex DeBrincat (CHI; 65 goals in 63 games), Nick Robertson (TOR; 55 in 46), and Arthur Kaliyev (LAK; 44 in 57). Evangelista was a second-round pick like Kaliyev, and the Kings prospect seems like a closer comparable than the first two.

Kaliyev is likely getting better deployment than Evangelista will when the latter makes the jump to the Predators in a couple years (similar to Cody Glass's outlook for next year), but it makes sense to use Kaliyev's rookie production this year in the NHL as a rough guide for what to expect at least initially from Evangelista: a 30-point pace with 2.5 shots per game. The points are nothing special yet but the shots in particular are encouraging, especially because Kaliyev is doing that with just over 12 minutes of playing time per game. He has the makings of a volume shot producer, and perhaps Evangelista will follow suit in time.

This is your regular reminder to take incredible junior numbers like these with a grain of salt. There's something sexy about prospects—just like the "potential" stat in NHL video games—that makes fantasy owners want to mortgage the farm to get their hands on the latest up-and-coming stud. While that's of course fun, the odds are pretty good that a player like Evangelista won't be doing anything meaningful for your fantasy squad for the next several years. Ignore the siren's call, dear sailor! Or heed it but stash him on your farm for free.

Behind him in second place among OHL goal scorers is Brennan Othmann (NYR), also in his D+1 year, who scored his 40th last night (54 games) to set a single-season goal-scoring record for the Flint Firebirds. Here's the record-setting tally:

Kreider scores his 40th, so #NYR prospect Brennan Othmann (R1, 2021) thinks "I can do that as well!" and gets his!

Othmann now holds the record for most goals in a single season as a Flint Firebirds! pic.twitter.com/tD5AItMa4a

— Stat Boy Steven 🇳🇱 🇮🇪 (@StatBoy_Steven) March 19, 2022

Othmann is certainly a player to keep an eye on moving forward. He seems more destined for a middle-six role but clearly has a nose for the net and perhaps possesses a higher ceiling than was apparent at the draft last year. Great snag by the Rangers in the middle of the first round. 2020-21 was obviously a strange year, and Othmann avoided the OHL lockout by playing over in the Swiss men's league, where he scored a solid 16 points in 34 games. Perhaps the brief auditions in professional men's leagues helped Evangelista, Othmann, and others when they then returned to junior.

WHL

Without checking, who is leading the WHL in goal scoring this year? I'll wait.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

If you said Connor Bedard or Dylan Guenther, you're close; both are tied for second place with 40 goals (in 49 and 51 games respectively). But an astounding seven goals ahead of them is an undrafted Centre, 19-year-old Ben King with the Red Deer Rebels, with 47 goals in 59 games. King is tied with teammate Arshdeep Bains (VAN), who is two years older, for the league scoring title with 92 points and the two are producing at historic levels.

#WHL SAS/RD: The tag team of Arshdeep Bains and Ben King power @Rebelshockey to another victory as they become the first to reach the 90-point plateau this season. Duo combines for 181 points, most by Top 2 Rebels scorer since Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andrej Kudma in '10-'11 (188).

— Geoffrey Brandow (@GeoffreyBrandow) March 16, 2022

Where is the hype on this guy? Will someone roll the dice on him this year in the '22 draft? Even though advanced production is expected from over-agers in junior, he's having himself a hell of a season. I imagine NHL teams are taking notes and earmarking him for a later round swing.

QMJHL

At the top of the QMJHL are another couple unheralded players: William Dufour (NYI) with 42 goals in 46 games and Patrick Guay (undrafted) with 39 in 47. At 20, this is Dufour's D+2 season, so that type of production should be expected to some extent; however, he was a 5th round pick two years ago and is looking like an excellent steal by the Islanders. Unlike the 19-year-old Guay, who is listed at 5'9 and 180 lbs (which is maybe why teams passed on him last year), Dufour stands at 6-3 and clocks in at over 200lbs, so he has the frame of a traditional power forward.

Look for Dufour to make the jump to Bridgeport of the AHL next year. How he handles that transition will be telling as to his future at the highest level. His star probability isn't high (3%) but it was 15% when he was drafted, so it's a bit surprising he fell so far in the draft. Players like Kyle Calder and Brett Ritchie look like solid comparables in terms of career trajectory, so don't get too excited about him, just stash him if you have room in deeper dynasties.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.