Last week we made an imperfect attempt to find the league's most valuable center. Not every league is the same size, or uses the same settings, but we were able to highlight several notable performances. This week we are going to continue our series and look at right wingers.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Most Valuable Right Wing

Quick notes on data from first article:

For the purposes of this article we are going to use standard Yahoo point scoring to come up with a value for each player. That (unfortunately) includes plus/minus, and categories like hits and penalty minutes in addition to goals, assists, and power-play points…The draft position data data was pulled from Yahoo at the start of the season, and only for the top-200 players. The number 200 was picked as it is a round number that is a reasonable (if slightly low) approximation for a lot of leagues and it is a pain to export data from Yahoo. It also will not completely match Yahoo's current ADPs as those will take into account drafts that took place once the year began….Oh and we are pulling all of the season data from Frozen Tool's Multi-Cat report to ensure we get those hits, blocks, PIMs, and plus/minus.

So who were 21-22's highest scoring right wings?

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS/G	Fantasy Pts	Fantasy Rank
MATTHEW TKACHUK	R	CGY	82	1.27	869.1	1
TOM WILSON	R	WSH	78	0.67	727	13
MIKKO RANTANEN	R	COL	75	1.23	711.5	15
MITCHELL MARNER	R	TOR	72	1.35	633.5	28
VLADIMIR TARASENKO	R	STL	75	1.09	576.8	45

Just outside the top five, and ranked in the 50s overall, were Joe Pavelski (50), Sam Reinhart (53), and David Pastrnak (59).

This list is clearly impacted by the inclusion of hits and penalty minutes. Tom Wilson is only in the top five when his 240 hits and 98 penalty minutes are taken into account. Nikita Kucherov and Patrick Kane (both well over a point per game) are the 109th and 130th overall ranked players. Kucherov was clearly hurt by only playing 47 games, but since neither are particularly physical their value is reduced in this context.

I am not surprised to see Matthew Tkachuk on the top five list; his 104-point pace and over three shots per game have been quite the revelation all season, but it is a little surprising to see him as the top ranked player in this scoring format. The value placed on hits is clearly helping boost him.

It is also great to see Vladimir Tarasenko's name. He had an incredible bounce-back campaign. After an offseason where St. Louis couldn't even seem to pay another team to take him, he puts up the highest point total and point pace of his career. What a dramatic turn-around and value from anyone who managed to snag him on draft day.

And that brings us to our next list – our attempt to take expectations and draft position into effect. We take all of our players' fantasy output compared to their ADP and get the trend line equation. Then by knowing a player's ADP we can estimate the amount of points the average player drafted in that position would have gotten and compare that to the points each player actually put up.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS/G	Fantasy Pts	Fantasy Rank	Expected Points	Point Difference
TOM WILSON	R	WSH	78	0.67	727	13	379.36	347.64
MATTHEW TKACHUK	R	CGY	82	1.27	869.1	1	529.32	339.78
VLADIMIR TARASENKO	R	STL	75	1.09	576.8	45	400.55	176.25
JOE PAVELSKI	R	DAL	82	0.99	554.5	50	420.11	134.39
MIKKO RANTANEN	R	COL	75	1.23	711.5	15	578.22	133.28
CLAUDE GIROUX	R	FLA	75	0.85	426.7	134	328.83	97.87
SAM REINHART	R	FLA	78	1.05	546.9	53	462.49	84.41
TEUVO TERAVAINEN	R	CAR	77	0.84	438.9	121	363.06	75.84
DAVID PERRON	R	STL	67	0.85	501.4	76	429.89	71.51
MITCHELL MARNER	R	TOR	72	1.35	633.5	28	565.18	68.32

The drop off here is pretty large. Our 10^th ranked player (Mitch Marner) outperformed his rank by only about 70 points. At center, that value was still around 120. There is also a massive drop after our top two here.

Again Wilson's value is likely inflated here because in many leagues his hits aren't counted and so his ADP would be a lot lower in those contexts. Combine that with the increased value of hits in this context and Tom Wilson is the beneficiary of a perfect storm of variables that juices his value quite a bit.

Tkachuk and Tarasenko (while still being more multi-cat style players) out-performed expectations the old fashion way: shattering career best point paces on top of their other contributions.

Generally, the other names on this list aren't much of a surprise. These are guys that generally drafted fairly high, are expected to score, and likely do a little better than the average player would taken at their respective positions.

Joe Pavelski is worth a quick mention though. He has had two of the best seasons of his career in his age 36 and 37 seasons, all after a career-worst season at age 35. He has clearly been clicking with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, and it looks like he has one more season to see if the magic will continue.

The above list only contains players who were drafted in the top 200 so I also want to include the short list of those valuable players who were later picks or not drafted it most leagues

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS/G	Fantasy Pts	Fantasy Rank
TANNER JEANNOT	R	NSH	81	0.51	796.7	5
MARCUS FOLIGNO	R	MIN	74	0.57	732.3	12
MICHAEL BUNTING	R	TOR	79	0.80	603.5	41
MATT DUCHENE	R	NSH	78	1.10	575.1	46
GARNET HATHAWAY	R	WSH	76	0.34	534	58

Again, this list is littered with value from peripheral players. Tanner Jeannot took multi-cat leagues by storm this year with his 318 hits to go along with his 24 goals. He was definitely a gold mine and incredible valuable in some formats off the waiver wire.

Michael Bunting has already received quite a lot of press, and no less so now with his nomination for the Calder, but he certainly provided good value for managers that heeded advice early on and grabbed him once he secured that spot with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

The highest point producer on this list is Matt Duchene, which would likely have been an astonishing thing to say about Duchene at the beginning of the season. Prior to 21-22 his point pace had steadily decreased from 79, to 52, to 31. Lots of things changed for Duchene this season though, from ice time, to linemates, to shooting percentage. He ended with the highest point total and point pace of his career. Clearly a great free agent pickup for anyone who was able to jump on it.

Now I won't leave it entirely at that as there are a number of players who absolutely tanked their fantasy managers this season.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	PTS/G	Fantasy Pts	Fantasy Rank	Expected Points	Point Difference
MARK STONE	R	VGK	37	0.81	192.4	497	522.8	-330.40
ALEXANDER RADULOV	R	DAL	71	0.31	166.2	536	447.82	-281.62
T.J. OSHIE	R	WSH	44	0.57	229	432	446.19	-217.19
BROCK BOESER	R	VAN	71	0.65	308.3	298	495.09	-186.79
NIKITA KUCHEROV	R	T.B	47	1.47	429	130	581.48	-152.48

Games played is generally a huge factor for this list, and right wings are no exception. Mark Stone clearly leads the way here and it really comes down to injuries. He missed a ton of time, and was not himself over the final stretch of games he played to try to help Vegas get into the playoffs. He was an absolute anchor during stretches, and a real disappointment who did not live up to his draft position. A similar statement can be made for Kucherov, though he was very valuable when actually in the lineup, just limited to 47 games.

Alexander Radulov is a surprising inclusion for me. Not that he had a poor season, but that he was drafted high enough to be this big of a disappointment. He had a decent eleven games in 20-21, but that was the entirety of his season. His 19-20, where he played 60 games, was not good, only managing a 46-point pace. His 25-point pace is clearly a step down from even that, but he was a risk going into the season, both from a games played and a productivity standpoint. He did manage a reasonable number of games, but averaged the lowest time on ice of his career. At 35 the future is not looking bright for Radulov.

Brock Boeser is an interesting one too. He has traditionally been predictable ranging from 65-73 points over the last four seasons, and those fluctuations can largely be accounted for by changes in personal shooting percentage and his points participation (IPP). This season, though, he dropped all the way down to a 53-point pace, which was a real blow to managers that drafted him. He maintained much of his ice time, and by and large had a better second half than first. A lot of it seems to come down to personal and team shooting percentages, which were well down, but there is a bit of a question about role. He did finish on the top power-play and on a line with resurgent Elias Pettersson, so hopefully all is fine going into next season.

That is all for this week

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