Frozen Tool Forensics: First-Round Exits – West Coast Edition

Chris Kane

2022-06-10

Now that we have officially wrapped up the MVP discussions it is time to turn our attentions, at long last, to the playoffs. There are many places to get the play-by-plays, the current takes and storylines, but this is not it. We are going to dive into this extra set of games and see if there is anything to learn about a player's performance. We will go round by round and look at the eliminated teams. Those previous MVP discussions are available to read here.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Round One Exits: The West Coast Edition.

We often start these things on the East Coast so we are changing it up this time around. In case anyone forgot the teams that were eliminated in the first round were Nashville, Minnesota, Dallas, and LA. For this article we are going to take a look at these four teams and focus on deployment. It is such a small sample size that we are not going to read too much into point paces, shot rates, etc. but instead look at how players were utilized in these win-or-go-home series. Doing so might give us a bit of insight into how coaches are viewing certain players and who might be primed for a different role next season compared to this one.

Caveat time for all of these first-round exits. They all lost. In the first round. That means small sample sizes of course, but it also means that what the team/coach did didn't really work so there will be less motivation to build on it for next year. To get specific on small sample sizes, Nashville was swept so will only have four games for us to work with. The other series went to six or seven games so make for a slightly better sample size.

And now on to the process. We will be looking at deployment and specifically percent of time on the power-play, at even strength, and total time on ice. We will be using percent as overtime games can add significant time to a player's overall count without changing that player's real deployment opportunity. In order to get this data, we will be running a custom Time on Ice report for the playoffs and comparing that to a second custom Time on Ice report for the last two months of the regular season. That comparison will tell us which players have gained or lost time between these two samples.

 So now on to the data. First up: Total Time on Ice

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
CARL GRUNDSTROML24L.A66.228.324.42.319.617.13.908.707.30
PHILLIP DANAULTC29L.A768.83034.455.627.830.513.202.203.90
MIKAEL GRANLUNDC30NSH459.731.635.264.528.532-4.803.103.20
ANZE KOPITARC34L.A769.232.836.563.130.733.46.102.103.10
ADRIAN KEMPER25L.A767.830.334.259.828.631.28.001.703.00

If we read left to right we have some basic info about the player in question, then we have their playoff performance using the percent of the total team time that they were on the ice (on the power-play, at even strength, and in total). In gray we have the same categories, but for the last two months of the regular season. The far-left white columns are again the same time on ice categories, but showing the change from regular season to the playoffs.

A side note: for the purposes of this article we are looking at players who played four or more games.

Our biggest increases at even strength for the first round here are all forwards, which is a little surprising. I would have expected to see at least some defensemen. LA definitely leaned more heavily on its top six during the playoffs as all four of these players were in the top six. There isn't a lot to be learned here about Anze Kopitar as he is the anchor for this team and given his increase it isn't really surprising to see Adrian Kempe on this list as he has been attached to Kopitar for most of the season. Phillip Danault isn't much of a surprise either as playoff hockey is the kind he was built for. Which leaves us with top six Carl Grundstrom. And yes that is top six Grundstrom. LA finished the season with a line of Danault, Grundstrom, and Trevor Moore. My guess is they would have preferred Viktor Arviddson, but with him injured Grundstrom made the cut. It wasn't a terrible showing either with four points in six games, plus 2.3 shots per game. It is hard to know whether this is  an indictment of Dustin Brown and Andreas Athanasiou, who couldn't beat out career high 25 point pace Grundstrom or if LA really wanted to keep a third line intact.

The final member of the top six was Arthur Kaliyev, but more on him in a minute.

First though, a quick look at players who saw less time.

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
RASMUS KUPARIC22L.A52.614.112.95.321.519.9-2.70-7.40-7.00
JOHN KLINGBERGD29DAL750.631.630.657.938.137.3-7.30-6.50-6.70
LUKE GLENDENINGR33DAL61.92019.4123.924.30.90-3.90-4.90
DENIS GURIANOVR25DAL529.918.81837.622.622.3-7.70-3.80-4.30
ALEX GOLIGOSKID36MIN412.529.926.122.331.930.2-9.80-2.00-4.10

Rasmus Kupari makes sense here, with LA relying on their top six. But what happened with the Dallas players?

Players being out of the lineup did some really odd things to the lines in the final game of the season, with combinations of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joel Kiviranta, Michael Raffl, and Ty Dellandrea making up the second, third, fourth, and fifth most frequent line combinations. After Joe Pavelski, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Jason Robertson. Clearly the lineup was missing Roope Hintz and given this line blender I am not taking any of it too seriously. Note though that Denis Gurianov is not on that list, even though he played in that game. There was some excitement about him in previous seasons, but a lot of that shine has gone, and he seems to be struggling to get himself into the conversation at this point.

And now on to power-play deployment.

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
ARTHUR KALIYEVR20L.A757.716.619.835.521.52122.20-4.90-1.20
PHILLIP DANAULTC29L.A768.83034.455.627.830.513.202.203.90
ADRIAN KEMPER25L.A767.830.334.259.828.631.28.001.703.00
KEVIN FIALAL25MIN660.42629.353.126.729.47.30-0.70-0.10
JOEL ERIKSSON EKC25MIN660.126.230.353.726.930.56.40-0.70-0.20

There is also an added filter here on play off power-play percentage. I am not including anyone who increased their power-play time but still accounted for less than 30 percent of their team's time. While I am very excited for Michael Raffl getting 11.2 percent of Dallas' time, that just isn't very fantasy relevant.

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Again, lots of LA here, and color me intrigued by Kaliyev. Playing with Kopitar at even strength and getting 58 percent of the power-play time over the series? Now decreased even strength time isn't great so maybe he is still a bit of a defensive liability, and of course we have a whole off season of changes, but Kaliyev is certainly one name worth watching.

Over in Minnesota we still have the will they, won't they game with Kevin Fiala. He saw more power-play time, but even up through Minnesota's final game that top unit sometimes contained Fiala, and sometimes contained Matt Boldy. Joel Eriksson-Ek was often on the top unit throughout the regular season so his reemergence as a top power-play forward in the playoffs isn't too surprising here.

So, who lost the most time?

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
RYAN HARTMANC27MIN625.430.32949.628.929.1-24.201.40-0.10
MATT DUMBAD27MIN65.739.635.929.736.135.9-24.003.500.00
ALEX IAFALLOL28L.A734.528.52954.626.929.3-20.101.60-0.30
ALEX GOLIGOSKID36MIN412.529.926.122.331.930.2-9.80-2.00-4.10
MATT BOLDYR21MIN631.524.122.240.724.624-9.20-0.50-1.80

Minnesota clearly emphasized one unit as all of their second unit saw a drop in ice time. Ryan Hartman was still seeing time at even strength with Kirill Kaprizov, but being bumped from that top unit is definitely a problem here.

Alex Iafallo is another interesting one. He spent a lot of the season on the top line with Kopitar and Kempe, but seemed to be demoted by the end of the final game, and was getting less than 30 percent of the total power-play time after the second game of the series. The season is clearly the larger sample size, so maybe don't panic yet, but it does bear noticing that his spot is definitely not guaranteed.

That is all for this week

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