Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

We might be in the midst of the brief lull between the end of the playoffs and the beginning of free agency, but now is as important of a time as any to look at the stats of players whose roles aren't likely to be impacted by moves their teams make this offseason. With that in mind, three "top dog" rearguards are being covered this month: Morgan Rielly, Aaron Ekblad, and Charlie McAvoy. Before reading any further, think to yourself which of the three had a 2021-22 output that was too hot, whose was too cold, and whose was just right, then see if you nailed all of your guesses.

Morgan Rielly (82 games, 10G, 58A, 221 SOG, 23 PPPts, 23:44 TOI, 2:54 PP, 67.1% PP%)

For a while it was looking like Rielly, a former fifth overall pick, might disappoint, due to only once besting a 30 point scoring rate in his first four seasons. But then he rose to a 57 point pace in 2017-18 before spiking to a 72 point pace in 2018-19. Just when it looked like he'd cemented his place among top producing #1 d-men though, he slumped to 47 and 52 point paces in his next two seasons. But he was back in more elite territory for 2021-22, finishing with 68 points. Can we expect Rielly to continue to produce as well as he did in 2021-22? No, but only because he should do even better given his role and team.

What's immediately apparent when looking at Rielly's 2021-22 stats is his SOG rate of 2.7, which was 50% higher than his 2020-21 rate and identical to his rate in his 72 point pace 2018-19 season. He's also had rates of 2.6, 2.4, and 2.3, making it so 2.7 doesn't seem like an outlier. Plus, despite his higher SOG rate his SH% was right at his career rate, so he didn't benefit from added goals, as did seem to be the case in 2018-19, when he had 20 markers and his SH% was nearly double what his career rate sits at now. Interestingly, his SOG data for this season and 2018-19 are almost identical otherwise, as he had 34 PPSOG in 2021-22, versus 32 in 2018-19, and his SOG from 0-15, 16-30, and 31+ feet were 10, 34, and 57 in 2021-22 and 7, 27 and 51 in 2018-19. So the fact that Rielly had nearly as high of a point total in 2021-22 as he did in 2018-19, with nearly identical shooting rates, on top of nearly identical ice times (23:44 TOI per game overall, 2:54 on the PP in 2021-22; 23:07 and 2:36 in 2017-18), make it so his scoring rate for 2021-22 is more legitimate, especially in view of his SH% being in line with his career rate, unlike in 2018-19.

Toronto had 3.80 goals per game in 2021-22, versus 3.49 in 2018-19. The Leafs are poised to continue to be an offensive powerhouse, so they should be able to replicate their 2021-22 rate in 2022-23, with Rielly a major beneficiary. That being said, the Leafs' PP clicked at a rate of 27.3% in 2021-22, which was not only tops in the NHL but fourth best of any NHL team dating back to 2010-11. In 2018-19 it was 21.8% and the team had 211 total PP opportunities and 46 PPGs, versus 231 and 63 in 2021-22. But Rielly's PPPts in 2021-22 were 23, versus 21 in 2018-19. So did he overachieve in 2018-19 or underachieve in 2021-22? Seemingly the latter, as Rielly's 2021-22 PP IPP was 47.9%, which not only was the second lowest of his career, but only the third time it wasn't 60%+.

Not only was Rielly's IPP on the PP low for 2021-22, his secondary assist percentage of 44.8% was less than it had been in all but one of his seasons, and below the 51.9% it was in 2018-19. Furthermore, 44.8% was 49th lowest of the 203 NHL defensemen who played 40+ games in 2021-22, with there being just one rearguard – Kris Letang – who had both a higher scoring rate and lower secondary assist percentage than Rielly in 2021-22. As such, Rielly likely should have netted more assists – and, thus, points – in the normal course.

Rielly also not only shot at a reasonable percentage despite tying his career best SOG rate, but he hit three posts, which, although not a huge deal, is more than would be expected for a defenseman who had only ten goals. Rielly's 36 PPSOG also ranked him 17th overall among all defensemen, with the average number of PPGs of those ahead of him being double his two, and only five of the 17 having fewer PPGs than his two. Between posts hit and his PPSOG rate, he should've had a couple to even a handful of added goals.

I don't think Rielly is as offensively gifted as some defensemen who put up comparable numbers, but we can't discount the team for which he plays and the solidified role he has. Between that, and metrics like low PP IPP and secondary assists percentage, plus hit posts and lack of PPGs for how many PP SOG he had, Rielly's 2021-22 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 3.25, as he should score closer to 75 points until such time as the Leafs' offense might begin to slow.

Aaron Ekblad (61 games, 15G, 42A, 179 SOG, 20 PPPts, 24:55 TOI, 3:31 PP, 69.5% PP%)

The former first overall pick posted 39 points in his age 18 season, which might not seem like a lot but at the time was the third highest ever behind only legend Bobby Orr and Hall of Famer Phil Housley. Did Ekblad become an immediate star like them? Nope. In fact, it took Ekblad five more seasons to top that mark, with a scoring pace of 50 in 2019-20. He showed that was not a fluke by scoring at a 52-point rate in 2020-21; but then this past season he jumped to a 77-point pace. Can Ekblad, who's still only 26, officially be counted among top tier fantasy d-men? No, as although he should continue to produce well, his output going forward likely won't approach his 2021-22 scoring rate.

Looking at Ekblad's 2020-21 numbers versus those for 2021-22, you'd think he'd have done better in 2020-21, what with virtually identical SOG and TOI and PPPts per game, and a higher overall PP TOI by 22 seconds and a higher shooting percentage. Yet somehow Ekblad's points per game rose nearly 50% in 2021-22 as compared to 2020-21. How is that? Even if we account for the powerhouse offensive team that Florida was, their scoring was 4.11 goals per game, up from 3.36 in 2020-21. Ekblad should've seen 22% more points per game than in 2020-21 based on his team's higher scoring rate, but that would've only put him at a full season scoring rate of 63 points for 2021-22. How then was his 2021-22 rate 77 points; and more importantly, was the increase sustainable?

His 45.6% overall IPP in 2021-22 was a career best, but only slightly above the 45.1% he posted in 2019-20. Only twice was it ever below 38.9%. Maybe there was a bit of a boost there, but still not enough to explain his big jump in scoring. What about on the PP? There too his 2021-22 IPP – 57.1% – was one of his higher totals; however, it had been no lower than 50% in each of this past three seasons, two of which saw him have an IPP on the PP of 54.5% or higher and the average of which was 54.4%. Perhaps Ekblad lucked into a couple of points via IPP, but not nearly enough to explain his big leap in scoring.

Where the answer seemingly lies is secondary assist rate, which, for Ekblad, was a 69.0%. Granted, defensemen get their fair share of secondary assists; but that rate is very high, as proven by looking at what higher scoring d-men did. Despite Ekblad missing 20 games to injury, he ranked 15th overall in assists in 2021-22 with 42. But his 29 secondary assists was more than what all but five of the 15 higher scoring d-men had, and their average assists total was 57.8 and average secondary assist rate was 52.6%, which, had that been Ekblad's rate, would've resulted in him finishing with only 32 assists, not the 42 he tallied. If he still had the same number of goals and no secondary assists became primary, his scoring rate would've been 63 points, identical, as noted above, to what it "should've" been when accounting for the rise in scoring by Florida as a team from 2020-21 to 2021-22. Not a coincidence, I'd say. Also, of the 22 defensemen who played in 40+ games and had a higher secondary assist rate than Ekblad's 69%, just two even had more than 25 assists, with them being Devon Toews and Justin Faulk, both of whom poolies would likely agree were among the more overachieving rearguards for 2021-22.

Speaking of Florida's team scoring, odds are it will drop, perhaps considerably. The last team to score more than four goals per game in a season was the 1995-96 Pens, who led the league in goals again in 1996-97, but dropping from 4.41 per game to 3.48. Moreover, the top offensive defenseman for the Pens in 1995-96 was Sergei Zubov, who had 66 points in only 64 games, or not that much higher of a scoring rate than Ekblad's. In 1996-97, Zubov was gone, and it was Kevin Hatcher who led them in blueline scoring but with only 54 points in 80 games. Granted, Zubov arguably had more talent than Hatcher, but not that much more; and yet the drop in scoring was quite pronounced. If Florida eases off the gas pedal a bit in order to try and save energy for the playoffs and be a more well-rounded team, Ekblad's point total should suffer in the process.

Lastly, it bears mentioning that Ekblad, after missing a combined 17 games in his first four seasons, has missed more than that many in each of his last two campaigns. It might be that he's slowed by injuries if they continue to occur.

Ekblad overachieved in 2021-22 due to his team's offensive production, which, as shown, is likely to drop, plus also his extremely high secondary assists percentage. And it's likely no coincidence that when both of those factors are separately accounted for, his scoring rate should have been an identical 63 points, not 77. As such, Ekblad's 2021-22 was TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 9.5, as he's more of a 60-65 point defenseman, and that's if he isn't hampered further by injuries. If you own him in a keeper and can trade him to get better locked in value, I'd explore doing so.

Charlie McAvoy (78 games, 10G, 46A, 166 SOG, 21 PPPts, 24:40 TOI, 3:07 PP, 65.2% PP%)

In the NHL for good as a teen, McAvoy commanded major minutes from the start, showing why he was a first round draft pick for the Bs. But his scoring pace ranged only from 39-43 in his first three seasons. Then for 2020-21 Torey Krug left, giving McAvoy a bit more of an offensive role, which he embraced to the tune of a 48 point scoring pace. But it wasn't until this past season that McAvoy became a true #1 in ever sense of the word, including on the all-important power play, responding with a 58-point pace. Can we expect better? Unlikely, as not only will McAvoy being coming off surgery but the Bruins aren't looking like they'll continue to be nearly the offensive force they've been, plus his predictive metrics point in both directions so as to cancel out each other.

A big question that many had was whether McAvoy could run a potent PP, as even after Krug left for 2020-21 the PP QB job wasn't handed to McAvoy, with his PP minutes going up and down and him not even averaging a PPPt per every seven games. But then came the 2021 playoffs, where McAvoy shined, particularly on the PP, which accounted for eight of the 12 points he had in 11 games. And sure enough, he was the unquestioned top PP option for the Bs in 2021-22, logging the ninth most PP minutes of all NHL d-men and landing in 12th in rearguard PPPts. Not too shabby, although that occurred on a Bs team which had the 15th best PP conversion percentage in the NHL. That sounds pretty good until you consider they finished 10th, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the previous four seasons, and with the possibility that PP1 stalwart David Pastrnak might not be with the team next season, or, even if he remains, then Patrice Bergeron, who apparently has opted not to retire, and Brad Marchand, who had his worst points per game rate in 2021-22 since 2016-17, will each be another year older. In short, although McAvoy appears to have a lock on the PP1 QB role, it's not clear whether he will stand to get more PPPts, as he already had roughly the expected production for a player who got as many man advantage minutes as he did and Boston's PP is at risk of becoming even less potent after already having slipped considerably in 2021-22.

One nice positive about McAvoy is his SOG rate has been steadily climbing and yet still has realistic room to grow. In fact, over the second half of the season he was at 2.25 SOG per game, suggesting he can – and should – see his rate rise further from the 2.1 it was for 2021-22, which was up from 1.8 in 2020-21 and 1.5 in 2019-20. What's more – as his SOG rate has been climbing, his SH% has remained steady, showing that these are sustainable, organic gains likely to result in more accompanying points.

McAvoy's IPP overall had been 38.9-39.5% in his prior three seasons but rose to 43.8% in 2021-22, and could rise further if the Bs lose some of their forward firepower, although if that occurs chances are their goals scored will sink, making it so at best any gains McAvoy makes in overall IPP would be a wash in terms of scoring. His IPP on the PP held essentially steady as it was 57.1% in 2020-21 and 58.3% in 2021-22. So clearly he belongs in his PP1 QB role; yet here too if Boston's PP continues to lose potency, McAvoy could see IPP gains but not any corresponding scoring boost, and perhaps even a net loss of points.

The elephant in McAvoy's room is the same one that was in Ekblad's – secondary assists percentage, as McAvoy's stood at an also very high 65.2%. In McAvoy's case, there were only eight players with a higher assists total than his 46, with their secondary assists rate averaging 48.0% and the highest being 53.7% and fewer than half the eight having 50% of their assists be secondary. If McAvoy's secondary assist rate had been 48% and none of his secondary assists were repackaged as primary assists, his assist total would've been reduced to 33 and his scoring rate to 45, or even less than it was in 2020-21.

Offsetting that potential loss is the fact that McAvoy showed explosive scoring, which, once blended with consistency, could result in sizable scoring gains. In 2021-22 McAvoy had 15 two-point games, and two three-point games, meaning that 36 of his 56 points came in just 17 games, and that he had 20 games with one point and 41 games with zero points. He didn't record a point in more than half his games – only 47.44% to be exact. Looking at the ten defensemen who finished ahead of him in scoring, none failed to record a point in fewer than 53.6% of his games, with all but two at 60% or higher and the average of the ten being 62.3%, which, if it had been McAvoy's rate, would've seen him score at least at least one more point in 11 additional games.

McAvoy is a young defenseman coming into his own. Although McAvoy's scoring breakout was accompanied by a very high secondary assist percentage, he also had explosive scoring and with added consistency he should offset any points loss he might experience if his secondary assists rate comes back to a normal rate. The Bs as a team might no longer be as potent of an offensive squad, the effect on McAvoy could be neutral if he gets points on a higher percentage of the fewer goals they might score. Accordingly, his 2021-22 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.75 in that his scoring should be right at or near the 55 point mark, but with a better chance to rise to 60 than to fall to 50.

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Scheduling Note and Questions for Mailbag

There will be no Roos Lets Loose column next week because the site will be dedicated to covering signings and moves on the first day of free agency. I'll be back with Forum Buzz on June 20th. Looking a bit further ahead, my next monthly mailbag is still has plenty of room for questions. To get questions to me, you can (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, (2) send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.