This is one of the bigger weeks of the entire NHL calendar for us here at Dobber Hockey as the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Guide is set to be released on Friday. A lot of work goes into this from Dobber himself, to the development team, to the editing team, and of course our writing team. Head on over to the store to pre-order a copy if you haven't already.

As a thank you to our subscribers and readers, Dobber sent out this tweet over the weekend:

🚨🚨🚨The Draft List with over 900 projections – is NOW available for download!#FantasyHockey Guide coming August 5, but the spreadsheet is available right now!

Dig in!
⬇⬇⬇⬇⬇https://t.co/2XOcQPBrLj pic.twitter.com/pGhCafMQMV

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 30, 2022

That's right. The 2022-23 draft list spread sheet has been released and can be viewed by anyone who has pre-ordered or subscribed.

In honour of the impending release, as well as the draft list that was just allowed for release, I wanted to go through said list and share some thoughts. These will just be a select few players, both forward and defence, as to not give away too much of the list. Go pre-order the Guide and get your own list if you want to see the whole thing early, anyway!

All I will note is that my own projections won't be done for a couple months so everything will be more off-the-cuff than having a set idea on what I'm personally expecting.

Alex DeBrincat

It seems the 2022-23 Draft List is very high on DeBrincat with his move to Ottawa. We have him tied with Mikko Rantanen in projected points with 88 (in more games played, mind you), and ahead of the recent generation's preeminent producers like Patrick Kane and Sidney Crosby. If he were to hit 88 points, he would surpass his previous career high by a full 10 points. There are lofty expectations here.

As Dobber mentioned in a Ramblings last week, the crux of all this is the investigation into sexual assault allegations from the 2018 Canadian World Junior team. (Fantasy hockey is irrelevant compared to the alleged offences but it's what we're here to discuss.) Ottawa could have one or two prominent players taking long-term suspensions and that would shake up the roster composition. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it but it's something that has to be kept in mind.

The team being able to put together two balanced scoring lines was part of the appeal the entire time. If the team has to move pieces around because guys are gone from the lineup, it detracts from what should have been a strength of this team. It would cut into the reason why DeBrincat has such a strong points projection: a huge assist total. We probably don't have to worry about him getting his 35+ goals, but getting to 70-75 points or 85-90 points is a big difference. I would also like to mention that he has missed just four games in his five seasons so this is a guy we (hopefully) can rely on for a full season, and that matters a lot.

Jack Eichel

Here we have a guy whose ADP and draft patterns I can't wait to follow come September. I don't think we'll see a wider range of potential outcomes from an elite (or near-elite) player than we will for Eichel. If someone projects him from 59 games played and 49 points, it would probably make sense. The early draft list has him just under a point per game, with 73 in 76 projected games played. That also makes a lot of sense to me. He has just 55 games played over the last two seasons but had 224 points in 212 games in the three seasons before that. It has been a while since we've seen him at his best but if he can play anything close to a full season, 80 points is well within reach.

It is tough to evaluate any player on 30-40 games played but we're going to do it anyway. The former Sabre only had 25 points in 34 games played but the problem was his assist total. His helpers per game (0.32) was less than half the rate from the three years before that (0.68). One big problem was a lack of secondary assists at 5-on-5 with just 1 in those 34 games (per Natural Stat Trick). For reference, he had 4 in 21 games the season before. A normal assist rate at all strengths (for him) would have seen him be a point-per-game guy. And he was doing very well across several transition/playmaking stats, from Corey Sznajder's play tracking:

Controlled entries and exits, scoring chance assists, shot assists, basically every category we'd expect a playmaker to excel in, he excelled. If those assists come around, Eichel could end up being very valuable this season. I wonder where he ends up going in most drafts.

Nick Suzuki

There are 58 players projected for at least 70 points and Suzuki is one of them with 71. He has averaged 61 points/82 games over his last two seasons so there is an expected bump coming. It appears Dobber, believes, like I do, that the Martin St. Louis offensive bump is real, and that the offence will come for the top Montreal guys. It's worth noting that once he was brought in to coach, Suzuki had 34 points in 37 games, skating over 21 minutes a night.

My one concern with Suzuki, aside from being on a rebuilding team, is his ice time. He did skate over 21 minutes a game down the stretch, but the team had a lot of injuries and/or players traded. To wit: Montreal used 20 different forwards over the team's final 37 games. If this team is healthy – if Christian Dvorak and Kirby Dach each play 75-80 games, for example – does Suzuki skate 21 minutes a night? Maybe he does, but I'm not so sure. That is the one thing that kind of worries me from a fantasy perspective. If that goes down to 19 minutes, I'm not sure he and his line mates have the raw per-minute upside to crack 70 points.

Then again, maybe he and Cole Caufield both take another leap in development and are even better than we project. Such is the nature of young players on a rebuilding roster and it's what will make them fun (and frustrating) to watch this coming season.

Jack Roslovic

Projecting a player whose career-high is 45 points, and has averaged 44 points/82 games over the last three seasons, for well over 60 points feels like a lot. Then again, we have to remember that there's a very good chance Roslovic starts the season as the top-line centre, between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. We may see Boone Jenner there eventually, but he suffered a back injury last year and missed the final seven weeks of the season. Jenner has had back problems since his sophomore 2014-15 season and the concern is that could linger into 2022-23. If it does, we really could see Roslovic skating 18 minutes a night on the top line/top PP unit. That is a big reason why (I assume) that his points projection is so high.

I have one issue with projecting Roslovic as the full-time top-line centre: his faceoff percentage. Now, I am in the camp that in aggregate, faceoffs are overrated, but coaches don't think like that, especially when they're trying to do whatever is necessary to win every single game. Roslovic is a career 42.4% faceoff guy, and that drops to 41.7% when looking just at Columbus. They might not have a choice if Jenner isn't ready to take the role, but even Cole Sillinger was 46.5% last year. If he can be close to 50% and Roslovic doesn't improve, could we see a change early in the season? There's no way to tell right now and we'll have to wait for updates on Jenner. This looks like a fluid situation to me, and I wonder of Roslovic's ADP doesn't inflate out of value. I guess we'll find out in the next 4-6 weeks.

Viktor Arvidsson

This could be one of the more intriguing fantasy options this season. He has just 45 goals in his last 173 games, or 21 goals every 82 games. In the three seasons before that, he had 94 goals in 216 games, or 36 goals every 82 games. The most recent stretch has seen his shots per game go down as his ice time has declined, and the shooting percentage is under 9%. If he can get to 11-12% shooting with three shots per game, he could threaten 30 goals once again.

There are some mitigating factors here. First is his health. He has missed 20% of his games over the last four seasons and it's hard to rely on almost any player in fantasy if they only play 60-65 games. The second factor is his role. Though he can play both wings, Arvidsson was on the right side of Phillip Danault often in 2021-22. With Kevin Fiala in the fold, does he stay in the top-6 mix? It seems likely but if he comes out of the gate shooting 6% over the first couple months, does Arthur Kaliyev get a role further up the lineup? Maybe it's just complicating things, and I do believe Arvidsson starts on the second line, but there will be players pushing for these spots.

At the other end of the spectrum, the upside is obvious. He has passed 30 goals and 60 points twice (missing another 30-goal season by one tally). A rebound in shooting percentage and a high-tempo offence, with some health, could see him get back to these marks in 2022-23. A top PP role would be nice, too, but we shouldn't hold our collective breaths.  

Miro Heiskanen

Unsurprisingly, we are very high on Heiskanen for 2022-23. Despite a career-best 36 points, Dobber's projection has him for over 50 points this coming campaign. The big reason, obviously, is the departure of John Klingberg, who had been a fixture of Dallas's top power play for years. Klingberg averaged 24 PPPs/82 games over the last three years, a total that would more than double Heiskanen's 82-game average of 12 across the last three seasons. That would be enough to push him over 50 points if he plays a full season, hence the projection.

I wrote about Heiskanen a couple weeks ago and the issues I think he may have running a power play. Go read that for more on that issue. Beyond just the power play, the team having an actual second scoring line would go a long way here. Signing Mason Marchment should help but they need more from Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Denis Gurianov. Getting more depth scoring should give more production opportunities for Heiskanen and that will also be a big part of his upside. Dallas is a fascinating team heading into this season.

Filip Hronek

This was one that surprised me. The projection is for over 40 points and that would be a career-best for him (he had 38 last year in 78 games). When we consider that Moritz Seider should be running the top power play again, that should be a big cap on Hronek's upside.

Then again, this might be the best Detroit team (on paper) that Hronek has had since getting to the NHL in 2018-19. The team was 18^th in scoring at even strength last year and that was the best for any Detroit roster in the last four years. Remember that was with Jakub Vrana missing 56 games, Tyler Bertuzzi missing 14 (he may miss a similar amount depending on vaccination rules/status), and no player reaching 70 points. With David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Dominik Kubalik being brought in, the team has added another scoring line in the offseason. Add in a full season from Vrana with growth from Lucas Raymond, and the depth scoring could support a 40-point season from Hronek. Meagre peripherals keep his multi-cat value fairly muted though.

Erik Karlsson

It was a big rebound season for Karlsson last year. By Evolving Hockey's expected goals impact, it was his best year since his first in San Jose, and it was his second-best in the last six years. Visually, this is what it looks like:

Across the league, he was tied for second in impact with Edmonton's Evan Bouchard. The problem, as has been his issue for several years now, was his health (and defence, if you’re into that sort of thing). He played just 50 games and hasn't played more than 56 in a season since leaving Ottawa. Going into his age-32 year, the games played are a big concern. It's why we have him projected for just 65 games (but 44 points). If he can manage an 80-game season, it's easy to see how he can get over the 50-point mark. And with Brent Burns in Carolina, Karlsson is locked on the top PP unit as long as he's in the lineup.

The question, after health, comes to scoring depth. With the top line duo of Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl off the ice last year, the team scored 1.6 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That's even worse than what Dallas did with the top guys off the ice at 1.7 goals per 60 minutes, and they were a very top-heavy team. If the addition the Sharks have made – Oskar Lindblom, Luke Kunin, Steven Lorentz, and hopefully William Ekblund – don't contribute significantly, it could be more of the same. That would hamper Karlsson's upside as then he's relying on one line and one PP unit for his production.

It will be interesting to see where his ADP lands. If he can stay healthy, 50 points is a very real possibility. Are people going to draft him as he's a lock for 50 points, or that is where his upside is? There is a wide range here and that's what makes this game so much fun.

*

We got terms on the pending arbitration case for Jesper Bratt:

Arbitration filings for Jesper Bratt (NJ): team is $4.15M; player at $6.5M

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) August 1, 2022

Assuming this does go to the arbitrator, it seems getting over $5M on a one-year deal is in the cards for Bratt. Of course, they could come to terms on a long-term deal before that and make this all moot.

Bratt leads all Devils forwards in points/60 at 5-on-5 these last two seasons at 2.54 (only Nico Hischier is over 2.0, sitting at 2.13). His rate exceeds wingers like Mikko Rantanen, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Timo Meier. It'll be curious to see what the Devils do here. If he signs a one-year deal and posts an 80-point season, a long-term deal might start with an 8 rather than a 6. If he underperforms then maybe New Jersey saves some money, but I don't think he will. He's rounding into an excellent top-line winger and the Devils are only getting better. A bridge-type deal feels like cap malpractice, but New Jersey may not see it that way. I guess we'll find out soon as the arbitration date is tomorrow, August 3^rd.