Eastern Edge: Potentially Bright Fantasy Futures for Skinner, Olofsson, Reinhart, and More

Brennan Des

2022-08-02

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When evaluating a player's performance for a given season, it's easiest to look at their overall production. It's a number we're all familiar with, a number that can be compared between different players, and a number that's readily available on every website. Although it's easily accessible, overall production can sometimes be misleading. Factors like line mate quality/familiarity, ice time, offensive zone deployment, coaching styles, and injuries can influence a player's output. Those factors often change over the course of a season, so it's usually more valuable to analyze a player's production during different segments of the year. In that way, you can see what factors were in place during a player's most, or least productive stretches. To put some of this into practice in a very simple way, this week's Eastern Edge will discuss players who had strong second half performances last year. Because the public places such an emphasis on overallproduction, many of these players will be undervalued during upcoming fantasy drafts.

Sam Reinhart

Unlike some other players on this list, Reinhart's overall production last year (82 points in 78 games) was pretty impressive. The reason we're talking about him is because his overall production doesn't quite capture how dominant he was. His numbers are weighed down by a poor start, presumably an adjustment period as he got familiar with his new team in Florida. He started the year with 12 points in his first 21 outings (47-point pace), seeing 16 and a half minutes of ice time per game, with a 50% share of the team's total power-play time. From that point on, he racked up 70 points in 57 games (100-point pace), skating 18 minutes a night and enjoying 70% of Florida's time with the man advantage. His deployment and production from the final three quarters of last season are a good indicator of what we should expect this year. In other words, Reinhart's offensive ceiling this year is even higher than last year's overall numbers suggest.

Tim Stützle

The young German posted a 60-point pace last year, representing a solid sophomore season. A closer look reveals an excellent second-half performance, which could be a source of optimism for the upcoming campaign. Stützle started last year with an underwhelming 21 points in 39 outings (44-point pace), seeing around 18 minutes a night and holding a 64% share of the team's total power-play time. His production increased significantly in the second half as he tallied 37 points in 40 games (76-point pace). During that time, he skated nearly 19 minutes a night and saw 71% of Ottawa's total power-play time. Although his share of power-play time didn't increase by a massive margin, he seemed to be more involved during his time with the top unit. After posting nine points with the man advantage during the first half, he racked up 17 during the second half. Following the offseason acquisitions of Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat, it seems likely that Stützle will be bumped off the team's top power-play unit, which would obviously hurt his fantasy value. Regardless, he's expected to skate between DeBrincat and Giroux at even strength, which would represent an upgrade from last year's line mates.

Jeff Skinner

In my opinion, Skinner hasn't gotten enough recognition for last year's bounce back campaign, which saw him score at a 65-point pace. It seems like our perception of Skinner is still tainted because of his underwhelming production under former coach Ralph Krueger – who didn't utilize Skinner properly. The fact that he was paid $9 million a year to score at 30-point pace under Krueger may have done irreversible damage to Skinner's fantasy reputation. However, as we've established, Skinner bounced back in a big way under coach Don Granato last year, seeing favourable deployment that matched his skillset. The 30-year-old winger posted 17 goals and 18 assists for 35 points in his final 37 appearances last year (77-point pace). He spent most of the second half beside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch – forming a dangerous trio that showed great chemistry together.

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Victor Olofsson

Olofsson scored at a 56-point pace last year – an improvement from the previous season's 47-point pace, but still below his 64-point pace from the year before that. A closer look reveals that his overall production last season was likely hindered by an injury. He started with five goals in eight games before suffering an oblique injury. The oblique muscles are integral in the action of shooting, and Olofsson's greatest strength is his shot, so it makes sense that he wasn't firing on all cylinders when he got back in the lineup. From November – when he returned from the oblique injury – to February, Olofsson managed just two goals in 36 appearances. He seemed back to his regular self after that stretch, closing out the season with 13 goals and 12 assists, for 25 points in his final 28 appearances. I think he has great potential individually, but I'm not sure if he'll see ideal deployment in Buffalo next year. For what it's worth, his impressive output down the stretch last season was done with just 14 and a half minutes of ice time per game and a 40% share of the team's total power-play time.

Gustav Nyquist

Last season, Nyquist scored at a respectable but forgettable 53-point pace. That number is the result of a poor first half and strong second half. He started out with 22 points in his first 41 appearances (44-point pace), averaging 16:35 of ice time per game and seeing 30% of the team's total power-play time. He enjoyed a more prominent role in the second half, which led to improved production. In his final 41 outings, he skated 19 minutes a night and saw a 50% share of power-play time, which resulted in 31 points (62-point pace). It's worth noting that he spent a lot of time beside Patrik Laine in the second half, which is unlikely to happen this season with Johnny Gaudreau pencilled in as the other winger beside Laine. This season, Nyquist will likely play the role of second-line winger with a secondary power-play role, which obviously isn't ideal for his fantasy outlook. However, given his low acquisition cost, he may end up providing a sneaky bit of value this year.

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