Hope and optimism are great things to have in fantasy hockey, but a healthy dose of realism can go a long way to ensuring your success.

Not every player can always be great. And not every player can be successful every season. Some years, players have setbacks.

Last week, I focused on players who might bounce back this year. Unfortunately, not all players can rebound from a poor season. Many players struggle for several years in a row (think Claude Giroux in the middle of the 2010s). Some never bounce back (Wayne Simmonds). Others, it turns out, only had one or two good years that became outliers in their careers (Jonathan Cheechoo).

Below are 10 players who have had a poor season or two, but won’t be bouncing back this year.

10. Nils Hoglander

In his rookie season, Hoglander had 27 points in 56 games, a 40-point pace. Last year, his production dropped to 18 points in 60 games, a 25-point pace. His ice time dropped as the season went along, and Hoglander was one of the few Canucks to perform worse under Bruce Boudreau last season than Travis Green.

Green: 25 games, five goals, 10 points, plus-two, two power-play points, 59 shots, 14:23 per night, 1:25 power-play time per night

Boudreau: 35 games, five goals, eight points, minus-eight, one power-play point, 73 shots, 12:10 per night, 41 second power-play time per night

This upcoming season, Hoglander needs to find a way to raise his production while getting fewer minutes. To make matters even more complicated, the team signed Andrei Kuzmenko out of Russia in the offseason. That makes another player that Hoglander will have to leapfrog for more minutes.

9. Carter Hart

Somehow, the Flyers got even worse defensively in the offseason, which doesn’t bode well for a bounce-back season for Hart. Tony DeAngelo will help the team offensively and on the power play, but his defensive shortcomings are known far and wide. The team is hoping for bounce-back seasons from half of their roster, and we know not everyone can do so. Maybe Hart can bounce back to an average-quality NHL goalie if everything goes well. The only good thing about Hart is that he has no competition for the number one spot, so barring injury, he should be getting plenty of starts, which will equate to a large number of saves.

8. Mike Hoffman

Many Habs players are on bounce-back lists because of the Marty St. Louis effect. Last year, the Habs scored 2.2 goals per game under Dominique Ducharme (31st in the league) and 3.22 goals per game under St. Louis (15th best). However, not all players can bounce back. Last year, Hoffman scored seven goals in 30 games with Ducharme as coach and eight goals in 37 games under St. Louis. Hoffman also finished with a 43-point pace, the first time he failed to reach a 50-point pace since 2013-14. His ice time dropped in the second half under St. Louis (from 17:32 in the first quarter to 17:40 to 16:52 to 16:29. Despite playing with Nick Suzuki most often, he still couldn’t produce. These are not good trends, and don’t look favorably on him bouncing back this season.

7. Mathew Barzal

It’s funny to see Barzal on several bounce-back lists, because what exactly are fantasy general managers hoping he bounces back to? He had a 66-point pace last year, which was preceded by a season when he had a 67-point pace. In the two years before that, he had a 72-point pace and a 62-point pace. All the hype for Barzal comes from his rookie campaign five years ago, when he had 85 points in 81 games. Maybe he can get back to a 70-point pace, but don’t count on the mid-80s. Barzal is one of those you stay away from drafting as he doesn’t contribute in other categories for roto or head-to-head leagues, and he’s not enough of a point-getter to make up for his deficiencies in the other categories.

6. Semyon Varlamov

Last year was tough on the Islanders, with a long road trip to start the season and a team battle with covid. Varlamov also had a tough struggle, first trying to fight back from injury, then trying to fight back against being a backup. Ilya Sorokin took the starter’s role and rolled with it all season, never giving Varlamov too much of an opportunity to seize back the starter’s reins. Not much will change this season, with Sorokin expected to be the top guy all year. Last year, Varlamov had a 10-17-2 record with a 2.91 GAA and a .911 SV%, a significant drop from a 19-11-4 record with a 2.04 GAA and a .929 SV% the year prior. Unless Varlamov, a free agent next summer, is dealt to a new team in dire need of a starter, Varlamov will continue to be a backup. In the best-case scenario, he’s a 1B.

5. Jamie Benn

Benn has been somewhat consistent the last four seasons, finishing with an 82-game points pace of 56, 46, 55 and 46. I’m not sure what fantasy general managers are hoping Benn can bounce back to. If it’s a 55-point pace, that’s doable. If it’s back to a 70-point pace from five-plus years ago, then that’s a little too much hope. He’s no longer getting 19-plus minutes per night (his ice time dropped each quarter last season), and he lost his spot on the top power-play unit. He doesn’t play with Joe Pavelski or Jason Robertson, so it’s hard to tell what might be changing that would allow him to bounce back.

4. Alex Nedeljkovic

Two seasons ago, Ned finished with a 15-5-3 record with a 1.90 GAA and .932 SV%. Last year, that dropped to a 20-24-9 record with a 3.31 GAA and a .901 SV%. Goalies are a fickle bunch, and as much as we try, it’s surprisingly difficult to calculate which netminders will do well. However, Nedeljkovic has a few things going against him, the biggest of which is that the team signed Ville Husso in the offseason. That puts Nedeljkovic into a 1B option at best. That’s a big step back for someone who played 59 games a year ago.

3. Jakob Chychrun

A year ago, there was plenty of hype surrounding Chychrun. He had just posted 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games, a 60-point pace. Then Arizona traded for Shayne Gostisbehere, and the initial thought was Ghost would back up Chychrun. That didn’t happen, as Ghost took over the top power-play duties right from the start of the season and never relented. Chychrun went back to a sub-40-point pace. There shouldn’t be much optimism for this season. He is still on the second power-play unit, the Coyotes don’t have any offensive superstars to help inflate his point totals, and Chychrun isn’t exactly known as an iron man. He has yet to reach even 70 games in a season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he missed a minimum dozen games this season.

2. Jonathan Drouin

Drouin is always a prevalent pick for a bounce-back season, but this year, he seems to be a more popular pick. A significant rationale for that thinking is that Drouin is in the last year of his contract, and many expect big things from players in the last year of their deals. Supporters are also buoyed by the fact Drouin normally starts fast (last year, he had seven points in his first 10 games). However, injuries usually play a large role in Drouin’s production, as he’s missed at least 40 games in two of the last three years. He hasn’t broken a 50-point pace since 2018-19, and only once in the last five years.

1. Ivan Provorov

You know how the old saying goes: If it ain’t broke, the Flyers will look for a way to break it. Despite knowing Provorov can run the team’s number one power-play unit, the Flyers continue to look outside for power-play specialists. In 2019-20, Provorov was on the top unit, finished with 16 power-play points and the Flyers ranked 14th in power-play percentage. That offseason, the Flyers brought in Erik Gustafsson, and the team’s power-play percentage dropped to 18th. Last year, the team brought in Keith Yandle, and the power-play efficiency dropped to dead last. This offseason, the Flyers wanted to improve their power play, so they brought in Tony DeAngelo. It will be tough for Provorov to get back to a 40-point pace if the Flyers won’t give him power-play time while also starting in the offensive zone less than 45 per cent of the time.