Ramblings: Wheeler Out as Captain, Thinking Outside the Box for ADP Info (Sept 17)

Ian Gooding

2022-09-17

Whether it is the first step in major player personnel changes or simply pressing the reset button, the Winnipeg Jets have decided not to have a team captain in 2022-23, removing the captaincy from Blake Wheeler. The 36-year-old Wheeler has two seasons left on a contract that pays just over $8 million per season, so he won't be an easy player to trade despite the obvious trade rumors.

Fantasy Take: Bowness Going to Winnipeg

In an effort to market himself to other teams, could Wheeler potentially be motivated by this decision? Players like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dustin Brown weren't negatively impacted after having to give up their C's. Brown managed to rebound scoring-wise after some subpar seasons by his standards, while Thornton and Marleau were still able to be effective point producers. Wheeler has had a very consistent 0.92 PTS/GP page over each of the last three seasons, but at his age his production isn't likely going to increase.

Back when I completed my first mock draft of the offseason, I observed Wheeler to be a potential draft-day bargain. As it stands, Wheeler is still being drafted outside of the top 50 right wings in Yahoo, behind the likes of Vasily Podkolzin, Filip Chytil, the injured Tom Wilson, Artturi Lehkonen, and Kirby Dach. Wheeler's Fantrax ADP of 136 is more reasonable, but he's still a potential value pick in that league provider too.  

If you have Nils Lundkvist as a potential rookie sleeper for the coming season, you may want to change your plans. The 22-year-old defenseman has reportedly asked for a trade out of New York and will not report to training camp. Lundkvist has posted outstanding numbers in Sweden for an under-21 defenseman, but his path to the NHL seems to be blocked in the Rangers' organization, particularly with Adam Fox likely running the first-unit power play for many years to come. A trade could be beneficial for Lundkvist's fantasy value, although he could eventually rescind that request if the Rangers don't treat the matter as urgent. Chris Drury did that with Vitali Kravtsov, who should be at camp.  

I completed another mock draft on Yahoo the other day. The usual 12-teamer with default Yahoo categories. Before I explain how this one was different from the others I've completed, here are the results:

1. Nikita Kucherov (TB – RW) – 7th overall pick

2. Mitchell Marner (Tor – RW)

3. Jake Guentzel (Pit – LW)

4. Jack Eichel (VGK – C)

5. Evander Kane (Edm – LW)

6. Kris Letang (Pit – D)

7. Brent Burns (Car – D)

8. Brayden Point (TB – C)

9. Dougie Hamilton (NJ – D)

10. Jordan Binnington (StL – G)

11. Mark Scheifele (Wpg – C)

12. Ilya Samsonov (Tor – G)

13. Elvis Merzlikins (Cls – G)

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14. Tyson Barrie (Edm – D)

15. Oliver Bjorkstrand (Sea – RW)

16. Tyler Bertuzzi (Det – LW,RW)

Yesterday I showed a few examples of Fantrax's ADPs being more in line with a player's actual value than Yahoo's. With that in mind, I decided to draft my team using Fantrax ADPs. On a Yahoo team, no less. I can't say with much reliability that you should use the Fantrax ADP over Yahoo's ADP, even in a Yahoo draft. But if you like to draw from multiple rankings sheets in your draft to ensure accuracy, you could add the Fantrax ADP list to your resources.

Yesterday I also mentioned that right wing is the least stocked of the three forward positions. As it turned out, I picked right wingers with my first two picks of this draft. From a points-per-game perspective, only Connor McDavid had a better points-per-game average than Kucherov (1.47 PTS/GP) last season. Assuming he can stay healthy, Kucherov might be the guy you're forgetting about that could challenge for the Art Ross.

I would have drafted David Pastrnak instead of Jake Guentzel in the third round, but I already had two other right wings in Kucherov and Marner. Pastrnak seems to be falling a bit in drafts, likely because of time missed last season and also because of the early-season absences of Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy. Although his Yahoo ADP is 25, his Fantrax ADP is 14. Only five players have scored more goals than Pasta (108 G) over the past three seasons, so it's not like he's forgotten how to score. (Original tweet before reply is from a different mock draft than the one above.)  

I drafted Jack Eichel in the fourth round for two consecutive drafts. On Yahoo his ADP is 43, but on Fantrax it's 31. He should be healthy and finally settled in Vegas, so this could be a season where he bounces back and possibly even more. He was a 0.9+ PTS/GP scorer for four consecutive seasons before the past two injury-and-turmoil-filled seasons. There's some risk in taking him this early, but he seems like a smart gamble in this spot.

Pick a high-value center in the middle rounds. Yesterday I kept talking about Brayden Point, Mark Scheifele, and Roope Hintz being drafted too late. Robert Thomas has an ADP of 98 on Fantrax but is going at around 130 on Yahoo, so he could be lumped into that group as well. There are plenty of centers to choose from in those spots if you can hold on that long to draft centers. I drafted Point in the 8th round and was able to come back to Scheifele in the 11th round.

Trying to pull as much value as I could in the early rounds meant that I'd be relying on the Zero G strategy once again. I have a feeling that Jordan Binnington will be a common pick among those waiting awhile on goalies. He checks the volume box if you need minimum starts, but how reliable will he be in terms of ratios? Ilya Samsonov should also be there after pick 100, where I picked him in consecutive drafts. As I mentioned before, the Toronto goalie situation is a coin toss and possibly even a timeshare.

By the way, I'll give a shoutout to Nate, whose Zero G idea has now hit the mainstream on Yahoo Fantasy. If you're not familiar with the strategy, read about it here. If you're not using it this season, you might find an opponent or two trying it out.

You can probably let Elvis Merzlikins fall quite a bit if you have a Yahoo draft – maybe even after pick 150. He is ranked much lower on Yahoo (ADP 154) than on Fantrax (ADP 115), where you may need to grab him ahead of both Binnington (Fantrax ADP 124) and Samsonov (ADP 186).

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

One Comment

  1. Stephen Lichti 2022-09-17 at 12:15

    i picked 6th, let it auto pick my 1st 6 picks,. i probably would of done a different pick at 6 rd over kuz. then thought id better get a goalie or 2, which i did.

    1. Kirill Kaprizov (Min – LW)
    2. Victor Hedman (TB – D)
    3. Mika Zibanejad (NYR – C)
    4. Timo Meier (SJ – LW,RW)
    5. Jason Robertson (Dal – LW)
    6. Evgeny Kuznetsov (Was – C)
    7. Tristan Jarry (Pit – G)
    8. Jack Campbell (Edm – G)
    9. Noah Dobson (NYI – D)
    10. John Klingberg (Anh – D)
    11. Matt Boldy (Min – LW,RW)
    12. Jakob Chychrun (Ari – D)
    13. Tom Wilson (Was – RW)
    14. Ilya Samsonov (Tor – G)
    15. Juraj Slafkovsky (Mon – LW)
    16. Tyler Seguin (Dal – C,RW)

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