Ramblings: Outlook for D. Strome and J. Skinner, Thoughts on Notable Camp Cuts and more … (Oct. 03)

Dobber

2022-10-03

The last update for the Fantasy Guide was Sunday. Seven times.

That's right. The news is coming fast and furious now, from the Taylor Hall injury (week to week – upper body), to camp cuts (Ryan Merkley) to camp standouts (Connor Zary) – I've had to adjust my projections, put them into the Guide and Draft List (and the French versions of those) and upload them. And four different occasions more news came immediately and I had to do it all again!

So don't ask when was the last update, because the answer will always be "a few hours ago". Pick up the Fantasy Guide here and immediately download both the PDF and the spreadsheet. The Guide will continue to get updates on injuries, signings, camp cuts and more – projections, line combos and notes all get updated throughout.

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Have you checked out the new Goalie Post yet? Set up your email update notifications now (you'll have to do it again, with the new platform). We updated the look further, for better clarity on 'confirmed' vs. 'likely' vs. 'probable'. Login, go to your settings, and check off the boxes of teams you want emailed updates on for starting goalie notifications. It's free!

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One more announcement – Dobbernomics. Remember a couple of years ago when you played it, thought it was fun, but found it too slow or too much of a hassle to find and add players? You never went back, eh? Well, this has relaunched! A spanking new platform. Player search and page loads are instant. It's open for registration. We just need to add some frills and features, but the basic game itself is ready now! Put in your team, invite your friends. It's a free game and you won't find a better one. Think you're good at fantasy hockey? Let's put that to the test with this crazy-cool concept of buying low and selling high.

One feature I'm looking to add within the next week or two – if you login for seven consecutive days you get a bonus transaction on top of the five you get each week. Lots of ideas to come…

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My two points-only dynasty league drafts are done, and in each of them I got the second-ranked skater on my list despite drafting 10th (in one league) and 11th (in the other). That player? Bobby Brink. I know that he's out for a big chunk of the season, but of all the available players he had the best combination of short wait time (even with the wait on his injury) and high upside. By the way, in top spot in both leagues was Wyatt Johnston. Johnston failed to slide to me in either draft – my fellow GM's read my sites too often.

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My one regret in my first draft (35 players, 15 teams, four rounds of drafting) was that with my pick late in the second round I decided to go young and grab Noah Ostlund, and then with my pick early in the third round I decided to go established with Sean Durzi. I like both of those players, but in the situation with Ostlund I was considering Jeff Skinner… and in the situation with Durzi I was considering Scott Morrow. In hindsight, I think I should have gone for immediate forward help with Skinner rather than high-upside-but-with-wait-time… and gone high-upside-but-with-wait-time on defense with Morrow. That is – the opposite decision for each. This is because, upon reflection, I think the immediate payoff in Skinner is more helpful than the immediate payoff with Durzi. The long-term payoff with Ostlund versus Morrow is probably the same, but obviously for different positions. Anyway, what's done is done and we'll see how it goes.

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The more I think about Skinner, the safer I think he is as a draft pick. I know we all (myself included) wrote him off a year ago. And now? He has genuine chemistry with Tage Thompson. But didn't he also have that in 2018-19 (the last time he had 63 points) with Jack Eichel? Skinner shot at the same clip (3.3 SOG per game) between the two seasons. His 5on5 S% of 9.40 is similar to what it was in 2018-19 (9.42), and isn't Eichel better than Thompson?

Well, yes.

But there are a few things going for Skinner. First of all, the chemistry with Thompson is much, much stronger. In 2018-19 Skinner played over 64% of his shifts with Eichel (and mostly Sam Reinhart), and yet Eichel was in on just 34 of his ES points. Last season Skinner was with Thompson (and mostly Alex Tuch) for 62% of his shifts. But Thompson was in on 41 of his ES points with slightly fewer shifts. I also like how Skinner leaned on the power play less, with just 11 PPPts last season versus 16 in 2018-19. His ES production was better and he did it with less ice time too – over a full minute per game less. And finally, his secondary assists were just 23.3% of his points, which is quite low. In 2018-19 it was 34.8%. He's earning his production. If he can stay healthy, don't be shocked if he sets a career high.

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Anyway, my second dynasty draft my strategy was to add only one prospect and add two players who were going to start the season in the NHL and either produce big – or disappoint. A homerun swing, if you will. That league is 33 years old and the concept is the simplest of my three leagues – just 20 players, points-only, keep everyone, top 12 count, and NHL playoffs count as a second competition. I have a contending team, perhaps even a favorite. My 'prospects' are already Peyton Krebs and Philip Tomasino, and I figured Brink would fall to me for the second draft in a row. He did. So that was my third prospect, I don't want any more guys who I need to wait a year or two on. The other 17 have to compete for my top 12. Just two rounds in this draft, and then the other two rounds take place in January. So that's why I can take a big swing in this draft – and quickly reverse it in January if it fails. I acquired a second second-rounder. Skinner was grabbed the pick before me (doesn't that always happen?), so my Plan B was – Dylan Strome.

Why I dislike D. Strome

I am not liking his track record with injuries. He seems to miss 10 or 15 games each year so far. I also don't like his inconsistency. I didn't like how last season 14 of his 26 assists were of the secondary variety. Too high of a ratio.

Why I like D. Strome

Last season was his Breakout Threshold season. And in the second half, he really showed it when he notched 36 points in his last 40 contests. He's 25 and entering his prime. His faceoff acumen has seriously improved.

I think, with Strome, this will be the year we will be able to determine if he has already peaked, or if he is indeed a future star. This is exactly what I meant when I wrote "homerun swing". Now let's see if it indeed goes over the fence, or if I whiffed.

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It's time to start thinking about Nicolas Hague, Alex Formenton and Jason Robertson. The three remaining unsigned restricted free agents. Are they going to get it done?

Formenton – I have a feeling the Sens are playing hardball here because they risk losing him to a potential suspension due to the fallout that will happen with the investigation into the WJC scandal concludes. If Formenton was involved, and he hasn't publicly denied it, then there is no telling how long the team will lose him – and I don't even rule out "forever" as an option. But that has to play a role. I will give this situation until Tuesday before I start tweaking his projection downward.

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Hague – The buzz around Vegas is that this is a deal that will get done sooner rather than later. I am still going to hold his projection where it is.

Robertson – The fact that the two sides are still talking daily tells me that something will get done early. If not by the time the season starts, likely within two or three games. What worries me is the lack of training camp and the increased injury risk that comes with that. As with Formenton, I'll be tweaking him down a couple of games if nothing is done by Tuesday.

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Here are five cuts of note from over the weekend, and my thoughts.

Nathan Smith, Arizona

Based on his performance at the end of last season, and Arizona's lack of depth, I had Smith penciled in as their second-line center. In fact, they really didn't have any legit, solid centermen who can win faceoffs. After Barrett Hayton and Travis Boyd – two players who aren't really considered top, proven centers – they have Nick Bjugstad. The job was Smith's to lose. When he got cut, I thought he would be called back up a couple of days later. You see that happen sometimes. But it hasn't happened yet. I was by no means 100% on Smith making this team, I had him at 80% to make it. So getting cut wasn't too shocking. But getting cut so early? Very shocking. In preseason, the Coyotes have had Jack McBain taking faceoffs and he outright beat Smith for the spot (for now). I bumped Boyd up to the second line and have McBain on the fourth line. Smith will be back, and I still think he'll play more than half the season.

Jakob Pelletier, Calgary

By many accounts, Pelletier was solid but not spectacular. Defensively he was reliable, but offensively he lacked the swagger that he showed in the AHL last year. Meanwhile, Connor Zary had that swagger in spades. Zary has struggled with injuries and had trouble creating offense in the AHL last season, but he came to camp on a mission. Between Zary and Matt Phillips, Pelletier was just plain beat. Look for Pelletier to regain his confidence and light up the AHL, returning to Calgary for parts of the second half.

Lassi Thomson, Ottawa

In the Fantasy Guide I had Thomson not making the team initially, but getting some short stints throughout the first half and then playing much of the second half. He's blocked from putting up big points by three young, top puck-moving blueliners in Thomas Chabot, Erik Brannstrom and Jake Sanderson.

Isaac Ratcliffe, Philadelphia

This 6-6 giant had four points in 10 games late last season, along with 10 PIM, 16 Hits and eight BLKS. When he makes the show, he'll be a multi-category stud. I projected him for 32 games in the Guide and I'll keep him there. He'll be back.

Ryan Merkley, San Jose

San Jose beatwriter and Dobber alumnus Sheng Peng reports that Merkley just got beat out plain and simple by undrafted newcomer Nick Cicek and tryout invite Scott Harrington (who later signed a deal). Merkley lacked the grit and consistency needed. It was his spot to lose – and he lost it. He has offensive upside and Golden Boy status, but that status is starting to fade.

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One player who keeps impressing me is Arizona's Matias Maccelli. He's a prospect I'm steadily moving up my list with each passing day. I didn't have him making this team, but rather coming up for cups of coffee throughout the season. But he's got a real shot. He's already outlasted Nathan Smith. Maccelli is one to watch.

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And finally, did you see this?

That's right! If you used Rotoworld for all your player news blurbs, you've noticed that they've stopped (they're now called NBC Edge, but same diff). Well, DobberHockey's Frozen Tools now provides the same feed! Bookmark it here – https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_news.php

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See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-10-03 at 09:16

    D. Strome is monster class, the best is yet to come. Also, a ton if his missed games had nothing to do with injury but just being benched. Those days are over.

  2. Striker 2022-10-03 at 09:29

    McBain plays a far better 2 way game than Smith. He went directly to the 1st unit PK on his 10-game trial. I had him slated in as the #3 C in Arz a week out of the UFA market unless Arz brings in a better option & teams still have cap issues to resolve and Arz is 1 of the few who can and is willing to do so for the right price. Here is my Arz roster currently. as always move wingers around any way you like. They are more structured based on TOI/GP and at season’s end who played the most time with who.

    Keller Boyd Schmaltz
    Crouse Hayton Guenther
    Ritchie McBain Fischer
    O’Brien Bjugstad Kassian
    Spare. Carcone.

    Now only room for 1 of Guenther or Maccelli but Arz has a greater need for a RW than a LW so I choose Guenther. That said I think both may find themselves as injury replacements and play most of the year in the AHL as I believe Arz will be adding a forward in trade, either as part of the Chychurn trade or as a cap dump from another team. Think Kerfoot Tor or Johnsson NJ. Both have contracts that should appeal to Arz, they are each owed 750K in salary but ding the cap for 3.5 and 3.4 mil respectively.

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