Fantasy Mailbag: Hellebuyck; Batherson; Category Punting; Zero Goalie Aftermath; New Coach Effects; One-Year Deals & More
Rick Roos
2022-10-12
Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.
Question #1 (from Max)
I have Drake Batherson in one of my leagues, making the decision to keep him before Ottawa brought in Claude Giroux or Alex DeBrincat. Although the addition of these two has me somewhat worried, most notably about Batherson being downgraded to PP2, what has me even more concerned is his continued lack of denial when it comes to the 2018 World Juniors situation. If you had Batherson in a keeper, what would you do?
Before answering, I want to make clear that real life matters more than fantasy hockey; and if what was alleged to have occurred in 2018 did indeed occur, I think no one would argue that the perpetrator(s) should be held accountable. This is relevant with respect to Batherson because, as of when I'm writing this, he's by far the highest profile member of that team yet to make a statement claiming he either was not involved or not at the event. Silence sometimes can – and, in this case, does – speak loudly.
Many have opined about what his punishment could be if implicated, with most seeming to land on suspension for a full season, if not longer. Of course, that is entirely separate from any criminal impact, although given his age at the time that could be a non-factor or run contemporaneously with whatever suspension he receives. Although the NHL has a track record of "forgiving" players who've committed even serious misdeeds, with Dany Heatley and Craig MacTavish coming to mind, on the other side of the coin is at Slava Voynov, with whom NHL teams essentially cut ties following a domestic abuse situation and suspension. After Marty McSorley was suspended due to an on-ice attack, he never played another NHL game, although in his case he was 36 years old at the time. Batherson could be absent from the NHL for longer than whatever time period his suspension ends up being.
If you own Batherson in a keeper, you have three choices – try to trade him, drop him, or hold and hope. The path you take depends on factors such as your roster sizes, what you invested to draft or trade for Batherson, and how competitive you see your team being for 2022-23.
I think trading him is viable if you need to get something now, although if you only get in return offers that devalue Batherson to almost nothing then I think you can't go that route. I'd target rebuilding teams, as they could have the ability to wait out whatever Batherson's fate could be. You might also have to do a multiplayer trade, to sweeten things somewhat.
Dropping him is an extreme action to take. The question is whether to do so now, to be able to try and get a better quality Free Agent, or only later if he's suspended? I think you wait, as if/when he does end up getting punished the Free Agent pool likely wouldn't be much different than it is now.
Otherwise, I think you hold and see what happens. Yes, it could backfire in that Batherson could be gone from hockey for a while then perhaps not welcomed back. However, if you can stomach the risk and your league is deep, holding might be most appropriate.
Question #2 (from Harry)
I've been doing fantasy hockey long enough to predate metrics that are now regularly used in your column, like Offensive Zone Starting Percentage, Secondary Assist Percentage, and IPP, among others. You do a good job explaining why they are relevant, which is appreciated by fantasy veterans like me. What I wonder about is where you arrived at the 70% overall IPP mark that you often cite as being a threshold to use to determine if a forward, who might be underperforming in terms of his current stats, is still someone to not write off?
Good question! !t actually goes back to my days writing the Cage Match column that preceded Roos Lets Loose, where each week I'd pick two players to pit against each other and pick which one is the better fantasy own. It was there I started charting overall IPP (which, as a reminder, is a measure of how often a skater gets a point on a goal scored while he is on the ice, i.e., if a skater has a 70% overall IPP, then he is nabbing a point on an average of seven of every ten goals scored while he's in the mix) and noticed that more often than not the forwards who were either already better owns or who had more upside were those whose IPPs were above 70%. Since then, the threshold has continued to be among the more reliable barometers there is, at least from where I sit.
How I got there was assuming that 60% IPP for a forward was "normal" because most of the time there are three forwards on the ice compared to two defensemen and three out of five is 60%. Yes, I realize this is imperfect as it doesn't account for the PP or PK; but for purposes of setting a baseline, I thought it was good enough. So the farther above 60% a forward is, the more he is actively contributing to scoring based on his own skill, as opposed to being a mere passenger who is getting points more so due to the talent of those on the ice with him.
The other key about IPP is it's not line-dependent. Often young players are saddled in the bottom six to start their careers. If that is the case, but they still have IPPs above 70%, it reinforces they have talent, since they are driving the offense that is occurring. Do I automatically write off a young player if he isn't above 70% right from the get go? No, as sometimes being saddled with less skilled linemates can cause a player to sink to their level. Still though, if a player is only at 60% – or even lower – in such a situation, it raises concerns that would not otherwise be there.
Once we start looking at top six forwards at even strength, IPP becomes far more reliable. These are the cream of the crop for each team, and for them being able to reach or exceed the 70% threshold is an indication they're "dialed into" the offense, versus just being along for the ride.
Is it less worrisome if a player still is scoring despite an IPP consistently below 70%? No, it's still a concern, as what that shows is the player is in a great spot but being elevated by his linemates. hat will get noticed eventually in real life, and perhaps lead to a player being deemphasized. Case in point is a player like Andrei Svechnikov; his average overall IPP in his first four seasons is 61.9%, which is pretty lousy all things considered, and a big reason why I malign him as much as I do. Compare that to Kevin Fiala, who, prior 2021-22, had overall IPPs of 78.4%, 80.3% and 73.6%, portending greatness, which arrived in 2021-22 and bodes well for him in LA, where he should get even better deployment.
In sum, overall IPP, and the 70% threshold, while indeed just one metric and not foolproof, is something I've found to be predictive as to how players will fare. I recommend all fantasy GMs know the overall IPPs of every member of their teams, and use it when drafting, trading, or deciding keepers. Good luck!
Question #3 (from Joey)
Which offseason coaching changes do you see having the most positive fantasy impact in terms of a team's offense? What about the most negative?
If I'm not mistaken, the following are new coaches who were brought in only after their team's season ended – Jim Montgomery in Boston, Luke Richardson in Chicago, Pete DeBoer in Dallas, Derek Lalonde in Detroit, Paul Maurice in Florida, Lane Lambert for the Islanders, John Tortorella in Philadelphia, David Quinn in San Jose, Bruce Cassidy in Vegas, and Rick Bowness in Winnipeg. At a total of ten coaches, that amounts to nearly a third of the entire league! I'm not counting Jay Woodcroft in Edmonton or Martin St. Louis in Montreal, as although both weren't officially promoted from interim head coach to true head coach until after the end of the regular seasons for their teams, both coached games for those teams in 2021-22, such that they will not be brand new for the 2022-23 season like these other ten.
Let's start with the negatives first, and to me it's Bowness in Winnipeg and Maurice in Florida. In Dallas, even though one line (Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski) was so superior to the rest as even strength and on the PP, Bowness still didn't lean on that unit, with only Pavelski finishing in the top 60 among forwards in TOI per game. I fear that some top Winnipeg forwards might see their ice time cut. As for Maurice, it's not that he's necessarily going to stifle offense, as much as his mandate likely is to ready the team to advance as far as possible in the playoffs, which I'm guessing will mean the best players might see less ice time in order to stay fresher. Look no further than the 2018-19 Lightning. Like Florida last season, that club led the league in goals and won the President's Trophy, only to be swept in the playoffs, albeit in the first round rather than the second as Florida was. The following season their team scoring dropped by nearly 12%……..and they won the Stanley Cup.
On the flip side, I think DeBoer, simply by virtue of not being Bowness, will lead to Dallas' top stars being able to shine brighter, with marked increases in ice time. Although Lane Lambert has been referred to as a "mini me" of Barry Trotz due to having served as his assistant coach for so many years, he's smart enough to realize that the approach Trotz took last season, which stifled scorers like Mathew Barzal and Anders Lee and deemphasized youth, didn't work, so I see that team opening things up quite a bit. Will they go from the 24th best offense last season all the way into the top five? No, since they didn't add any big guns; however, top-15 or perhaps even top-ten is plausible.
As maligned as he often is, Tortorella has managed to lead some of his teams to impressive offensive outputs. Yes, he has his work cut out for him on Philly, especially with Sean Couturier and Ryan Ellis both with no timetable for their return; however, his hard-nosed style could initially light a fire under some players to an extent whereby the team outperforms expectations.
As for the rest, Lalonde has no prior NHL coaching experience but benefits from Detroit bettering its second line; so there might be improvement but more organic so than coaching–related. Montgomery's success will depend largely on how well players on the Bs come back from injury and if the grey beards can continue to perform at the highest level. As for Cassidy, it's not easy to tell the extent to which his role as coach made the Bruins better; however, he was open to leaning on top players, so that could mean good news for the likes of Jack Eichel and Shea Theodore. As for Richardson, who, like Lalonde, is a first time NHL head coach, and Quinn, who previously helmed the Rangers, they both have tall tasks ahead of them. Still, sometimes a new coach is able to ignite a spark even in a team that looks weak on paper, although it's also true there have been plenty of new coaches who were put into tough situations like these and saw their teams perform even worse than expected. Good luck, to them and to you!
Question #4 (from Paul)
I enjoyed your poll that asked us to vote on which players were most likely to achieve a point per game scoring rate for the first time in 2022-23. I'm wondering what's your take on the other side of the coin, namely those who hit the point per game threshold in 2021-22 but who you believe will not only fail to do so in 2022-23, but ever again?
Another good question! Step one to answering it is look at the defensemen who made the list, namely Roman Josi, Cale Makar, and Victor Hedman. Suffice it to say, I think Makar is going to be a perennial point per gamer. As for the other two though, they might be one and done. As great as Josi played, let's not forget he's 32 years old and, more importantly, had a 56 to 62 point scoring pace in five of the previous six seasons. Yes, he shot more than ever and could conceivably keep that up. But a record number of SOG per game and his highest ever SH% – that's a red flag. Josi also had as many PPPts last season in 80 games as he had in his prior two seasons in 117 contests, and that includes his 77-point scoring pace season from 2019-20. Josi's overall IPP of 63.2% also eclipsed his previous high of 58.0%, and average of 51.9% since becoming an NHL regular. Hedman's stats are less egregious; but unlike Josi, he barely hit the point per game mark. With Hedman, his SH% was elevated, his PPPts were above his already impressive rate, and his overall IPP was a five season high. I think there's a good chance that Hedman outpoints Josi in 2022-23, but with both finishing in the 70s. And given their ages, the odds are very remote that they'd climb back to the point per game level in a future season either.
For forwards, not only is Nazem Kadri penciled in as second line center in Calgary, but what he did last season came while on the cusp of being a UFA. For someone his age to perform so far and away better than he ever had previously, then to go to a team where, although he'll be on PP1, he might not even be a top liner, signs point to Kadri's membership in the point per game club being revoked, permanently. And although Matt Duchene proved he can perform when not playing for a new deal, I think he was lifted by Filip Forsberg who, like Kadri, played far above and beyond his prior best with a UFA payday looming. Why is Forsberg not someone I think will see his totals fall below the point per game level? Because his metrics aren't actually that bad; although I think he too sees his totals fall, his cushion from 2021-22 was enough such that I think he drops to a rate still above the point per game threshold.
I worried too about Gabriel Landeskog, even before word of his continued injury woes. In my most recent mailbag, I made mention of the fact that Landeskog is about to turn 30, by which, if not earlier, the careers of many "rough and tumble" scorers, including Jamie Benn, Milan Lucic, David Backes, Ryan Callahen, Andrew Ladd, Wayne Simmonds, Ryan Kesler, James Neal, and Kyle Palmieri took a turn for the worse. None of them was the scorer Landy has been, so perhaps he might not stumble as much or as soon. But I fear that like these others he suddenly will see his production drastically decline, and it could occur at any time given his age, and, like the others before him, he won't bounce back thereafter.
Another player who I think might fall below the point per game level in 2022-23 and beyond – and I know this will sound like a "clickbait" hot take – is Alex Ovechkin. Keep in mind he already was below the point per game level for the last 55 games of 2021-22. For 2022-23, he'll be without PP buddy Nicklas Backstrom, plus, for several months, his protector Tom Wilson. I believe Ovi will solider on; however, his skill, and, just as importantly, that of those on his team, might not be enough to put him over the point per game hump again before he retires.
A name you might expect is Mats Zuccarello; however, the diminutive Norwegian plays a type of game like Martin St. Louis, allowing him to thrive – like St. Louis – well into his late 30s. Being tethered to arguably the best winger in the game in Kirill Kaprizov should keep him in point per game territory.
Those are my predictions. We'll see which come to fruition. Good luck!
Question #5 (from Trent)
Which of these UFAs, who all signed one-year deals, do you think are the best bets to step up – John Klingberg, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Evan Rodrigues, Ilya Samsonov, or Paul Stastny?
Let's start with Klingberg, since his deal was the richest. The last time a high profile UFA defenseman inked a one-year deal was Tyson Barrie with the Oilers in 2020, and he proceeded to be the top scorer among all defensemen in 2020-21. Of course playing for 2022-23 Ducks is a far cry from the dream gig of being the top option for blueline offense for the Oilers in 2020-21. Also, Anaheim has Jamie Drysdale, whom they no doubt want to position for success, whereas when Barrie thrived Evan Bouchard was not quite ready for prime time like he is now. I predict that Klingberg will play well, then likely get moved by the deadline. Long story short though, Klingberg probably won't do much better than last season, but I doubt he'll fare worse.
Krejci, who opted to return to the NHL after he'd already left for a season and had nothing to prove and didn't need the money, intrigues me. In my book, one doesn't make that choice at his age and after all he's already accomplished unless he's serious about performing at his highest level. And with a new coach at the helm and a seemingly successful experiment last season breaking up the formerly ironclad line of Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak, Krejci could have a realistic shot at 60+ points, especially if he can land on PP1. As for Bergeron, his SOG rate was a career high in 2021-22, showing he still has gas left in the tank. Still though, Bergeron's scoring rate was in the 73-75 point range for the third season in a row, so he might be slowing. But he finished very strong, with 20 points in his last 17 contests, so there is a chance he can rise back to the point per game level; however, expecting much more than that would be a stretch.
I really like Strome's chances of being impactful. I realize that even before Nicklas Backstrom got hurt Evgeni Kuznetsov had become Alex Ovechkin's center; however, after a red-hot start Ovi proceeded to score at under a point per game pace over the last 55 games, with Kuznetsov similarly slowing. There is a world in which Strome gets trialed alongside Ovi, and, as we saw last season in Chicago, Strome can keep up with top players, having centered Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat for virtually all of the second half. I also believe that with all the injuries the Caps have, plus aging players, that Strome could land a coveted spot on PP1. If everything aligns for Strome, 70+ points is reasonable; and even if he's just a second line, PP2 guy, he might still top 60 given the depth on the Caps.
Now on Strome's former team, Domi has had decent IPPs, showing he can factor into the scoring while on the ice. The issue is his SOG rate has plummeted, and he was pushed down the depth chart on his most recent squads. But in Chicago, he's a shoo-in for the top six and likely PP1 simply because the team was so gutted this offseason. Perhaps what was standing in the way for Domi of late was him moving around so much and not being able to secure locked in ice time. In his case I think there is no middle ground, as either he rises to 60+ points, or lands at his now familiar point per every other game.
As for Rodrigues, although Colorado would appear to be a good fit for him on paper and they're paying him enough to likely earn him a good look, the vanishing act that he pulled in Pittsburgh last season is difficult to ignore. Let's not forget he's 29 years old, so this isn't some fresh-faced player who could still find another gear. So although there is an outside chance he connects the dots and finishes with 50+ points, I feel it's more likely that he flops.
The Canes have invested a lot in the success of Jesperi Kokaniemi, such that it would seem he has the inside track for the second line center gig. It's possible though that KK simply is still not ready to step up, in which case Stastny could center the second line. Stastny also is strong on the PP; and if he wrangles his way onto PP1, that would boost his totals. I'd put Stastny down as a decent bet for a point per every other game, with a remote shot at 50+ points.
As for Samsonov, even going back to his season in the AHL he's simply not performed well since coming to North America. We know that the track record for goalies drafted in the first round really is not all that good. He's reached put up or shut up time, such that if he doesn't play well my guess is he will head back to Russia for 2023-24. But with only the inconsistent, injury-prone Matt Murray between Samsonov and the Toronto starting gig, there is hope, although at the same time the Leafs are a tough team to play for if you're not on the top of your game, and the list of flamed out Toronto goalies is even longer than those who didn't pan out after being drafted in round 1. Samsonov is the very definition of risk-reward, and if I had to guess as to where his chips will fall, I'd say he's more apt to fail than to find success and indeed by this time next year he'll be out of the NHL. Good luck!
Question #6 (from Jake)
I'm in a 12 team weekly H2H league with rosters of 4LW, 4C, 4RW, 6D, 2G, plus 6 Bench and categories of G, A, PIM, PPP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SO. I kept Ilya Sorokin and am hoping he officially becomes an elite #1 this season. At the draft I kind of went with a "zero goalie" strategy and ended up also with Linus Ullmark and Spencer Knight. But looking at things now, I'm concerned I'll be an underdog most weeks in the goalie categories, as it's not clear Sorokin will start over 50 games, while Ullmark and Knight would be lucky to hit 40 starts. Should I drop one of them for Philip Grubauer because at least he is penciled in as a starter? Or would it be better to plan to rotate the goalies I have with ones on the waiver wire?
I don't think I've ever gone on record with my thoughts on the "zero goalie" draft approach. For what it's worth I'm not a fan unless (a) fewer than 25 goalies are owned by all teams and/or (b) at least half the goalie categories are GAA, SV%, or others that aren't volume-based. Yes, goalies have become less and less dependable, which cuts against drafting them early; however, if a lot of them are owned, thus preventing me from rotating guys in an out of my roster, or lots of minutes are crucial, then I'll do what it takes to land two true starters, and not risk having to choose from scraps in later rounds.
Sure – if you're fortunate to retain or draft a successful workhorse like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, Thatcher Demko, Tristan Jarry, or Jacob Markstrom, then you don't have to necessarily reach for another high volume starter, as they tend to be the most overpriced. Instead, you can wait and grab a tier-three or even tier-four starter the likes of Elvis Merzlikins, Jordan Binnington, John Gibson, or Grubauer, then a third netminder, like Anthony Stolarz, Thomas Greiss, or Casey DeSmith. While this group is unlikely to play a lot, they should give you good stats when they do; or at least they won't give you pains if you wish to drop them to take a chance on a goalie who comes from nowhere and entices you to pick him up.
In your shoes I probably grab Grubauer and drop Knight, who, whether deserved or not, is likely to remain in the back seat behind Florida's $10M man Sergei Bobrovsky. Plus, even if Bob gets traded I don't see how you'd keep both Knight and Sorokin; and keeping Knight over Sorokin would be a mistake, what with Sorokin set to be "the guy" no later than 2023-24 after Semyon Varlamov's contract expires. Even though I'm saying Knight should be dropped, that's not to imply I expect great things from Ullmark, who is a good goalie but doesn't make so much as to have it be impossible to be unseated, and who has the seemingly more talented Jeremy Swayman becoming more difficult not to anoint as at least a #1A. But if forced to choose between the two, I can't opt for Knight, who's a 100% guaranteed back-up.
Something else to consider is that although you didn't send me the rest of your roster, chances are if you employed the "zero goalie" strategy you are apt to have drafted better skaters than at least some of the other teams. With skater categories having more weight, chances are you can leverage that strength to pull off a trade to upgrade your goalies if/when you feel the need to do so. Good luck!
Question #7 (from Lucky)
In my Weekly H2H 12 team keeper league we start 12F, 5D, 2G, and have 4 Bench and 1 IR, with categories of G, A, PPPts, SOG, PIM, HIT, BLK, +/-, W, GAA, SV%, SO. I generally like how my draft went, but I ended up with Trevor Zegras, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Jamie Drysdale, and Seth Jones, who were collectively -137 last season. Even if they improve somewhat in +/-, I think I'm doomed to finish in last place in the category each week. I wonder if I should make an offer to the Patrick Kane owner, since if I'm always going to finish last in the +/- category, I might as well try to pick up a player who may be undervalued by their GM due to fear of a negative effect on +/-. What do you think?
As much as I feel it's a bad idea to punt on a category from day one, those five are all likely going to be quite minus again; and unless you have guys on Colorado, Calgary, Florida, Carolina, and Minnesota to balance them out, it might be best to write off plus-minus. The good news is it's only one of 12 categories, and while you'll be in a hole to start each week, those five are likely to have solid seasons, benefitting you in the other categories, although perhaps not the banger ones with Caufield and, if acquired, Kane.
Where would I draw the line on "category punting" in a H2H league? It's tough to say as a rule; but let's suppose the league had only ten total categories; that would mean in order to win for the week, you'd have to prevail in six of the remaining nine, which, if it sounds like a tall order, is because it is. Of course if it was fewer than ten, things would only be worse. Although I realize it's too late to undo draft results, and it would've been better to not have put yourself in this situation, it does no good to beat yourself up about it and I'm glad to see you're not doing that. And make no mistake – I've seen worse, like GMs in leagues where forward positions matter literally not drafting enough RW or LW eligible players to fill out their starting line-up.
As for acquiring Kane, I think it's the right thing to do under the circumstances. You should try to put together the best possible line-up in other categories so if +/- indeed doesn't work out you hope that what you have elsewhere will compensate, and that you'll get PIM, HIT, and BLK from your other skaters to offset Caufield and Kane. In making the trade, try not to lose goaltenders though, as they contribute to 36% of the categories in which you are still actively competing. I'd try the trade route; and if you aren't able to compete, then you'll likely realize it early enough to hopefully make some additional deals so as to position your team for better results next season. Good luck!
Question #8 (from Dave)
I'm in a 14 team H2H keeper with categories of G, A, PIM, PPPts, SOG, PIM, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV. Two goalies start each week, and without fail each team keeps at least one goalie every season. My choices were Connor Hellebuyck, Carter Hart, and Darcy Kuemper. I have kept Hellebuyck for several seasons, and opted to do so yet again even though he burned me in 2021-22 and I think Kuemper could fare better. Do you feel I made a mistake? Either way, can you give me any hope in terms of Hellebuyck getting back to being a dependable workhorse?
Looking first at Kuemper, I fear that Washington is a team which will take a big step back this season. They are getting old, as the top eight scorers from their 2018 Cup win are all still with the team, and the only one of them who isn't already 30 years old is Tom Wilson, who is creeping up on that number and will miss time to start the season. Also, Kuemper was made to look very good last season in front of a superbly talented Avs team; however, he only had a quality start percentage of 54.4%, with his worst rate coming in Q4 when he started the most games. He's also 32, and could be starting to decline. But was Hellebuyck a better keep?
On paper, Winnipeg didn't improve, although in a way that helps Hellebuyck, as Eric Comrie, who often looked better than Hellebuyck when he did play last season, is now gone and in his place is David Rittich, who has the 8th worst SV%, 13th worst GAA, 9th worst GSAA, and 27th best Quality Start Percentage out of 44 goalies who played 100+ games over the past four seasons. Rittich, if anything, should solidify Hellbuyck's role as a true #1, benefitting you, at minimum, in Wins, Saves, and Shutouts.
As for Hellebuyck, his top line stats last season were indeed lousy, culminating in a Q4 where, although he won 12 of 23 games, his GAA was 3.27 and his SV% .904. Moreover, Hellebuyck's poor 2021-22 made it the first time since he became true starter that he had two subpar seasons in a row. And although Hellebuyck is only 29 years old, which usually is in the thick of a goalie's prime, let's not forget that all those seasons of all those starts add up, making it so his hockey age is older than his actual age.
The good news is the Jets changed coaches this offseason to bring in Rick Bowness, which in and of itself can spark a team. While Bowness doesn't have the track record of – say – a Barry Trotz in terms of stressing defense, he does focus on that area enough for there to be optimism if you're a Hellebuyck owner. Plus, Bowness did ride Jake Oettinger hard as the season wore on, showing he'd seemingly have no qualms about doing so with respect to Hellebuyck, although as noted above it's not like Bowness has a better option in Rittich.
Also, as poor as Hellbuyck's season seemed to be, when looking at the 39 goalies who logged 1500+ minutes last seasons, he was in the middle of the pack in High Danger SV%, just outside the top ten in GSAA, and likewise just outside the top ten in average goal distance (i.e., how far away players were when the scored). Moreover, his quality start percentage, despite dropping each quarter, was just outside the top ten as well. So according to metrics that look beneath top-level stats, Hellebuyck was not nearly as bad as might have otherwise seemed.
In the end, I think you made the right choice. Not only are your categories just about as good as can be for Hellebuyck, but, as pointed out, he was better in 2021-22 than at first glance. Hopefully he turns things around for you. If not, you will definitely have no shortage of suitors given the categories, and you can assess whether it is time to trade him and move on. Good luck!
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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".
When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.