Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With the 2022-23 campaign being barely a month old, there is not a lot of data to dissect. But rest assured it's still business as usual at Goldipucks, which means figuring out the story behind the story for three players, who, for this installment, are: Sebastian Aho, Jack Eichel, and Nico Hischier. Now put on your detective caps to deduce which of the trio has been too hot, too cold, and just right thus far for the young season, then continue reading to see if you nailed all three. Stats reflect games played through November 13th.

Sebastian Aho (15 games, 7G, 10A, 39 SOG, 5 PPPts, 19:36 TOI, 3:57 PP, 60.8% PP%)

Aho had to wait until pick 35 of the 2015 draft to hear his name called; but he was in the NHL before the vast majority of first rounders who were selected that year, logging a full season with the Hurricanes in 2016-17. Everything was progressing smoothly for Aho, who saw his scoring rate increase from 49, to 68, to 83 in his first three seasons. Since then he's been unable to take things up another notch though, producing at an 80-84 point pace in each of his next three campaigns, making poolies wonder if he was going to be the second coming of mister consistency Mark Scheifele. So far for 2022-23, however, Aho stand at a 93-point scoring pace. Can it last? Unlikely.

First let's look at Aho's run of four seasons of 80-84 point scoring pace to see what, if any, patterns were evident, and, in turn, to determine how they compare to what's happened this season thus far. Aho's SOG rate was 2.6-3.0 over that four-season stretch, while for the 2022-23 campaign thus far it's 2.6, so he's at the low end of his usual range. On top of that, his SH%, which had been 16.2-18.4% over the past three seasons, is in range at 17.9%. Thus far though, Aho has had significantly more PP minutes per game; but closer scrutiny shows his percentage of PP minutes is actually down as compared to his last two seasons. More on this in the next paragraph. Aho's overall ice time is at the level it was in two of the past three seasons. Let's keep in mind that Aho started 2021-22 with 19 points in 16 games, so producing better out of the gate is not unprecedented. So far the data paints a picture of a player who won't be able to keep up his current 93 point pace.

Turning to overall IPP, Aho, who's been at or above the all-important 70% threshold for all but one of his seasons, sits at 65.4. But in terms of PP IPP, at 50.0% he's lagging well behind even his lowest ever output, with his average over his career being 70.4% going into this season. Although his PP scoring pace seems fine, he should have even more PPPts. Or should he? If we look at the rate of PP opportunities per game for the Canes over the past four seasons that have seen Aho score at an 80- to 84-point rate, it's been pretty consistent, ranging from 2.83 to 3.03. For 2022-23 thus far, however, they're getting 3.93 per game, explaining not only why Aho's PP minutes are up despite his PP percentage being down, but also making it so even if Aho's PP IPP rights itself, the gains likely would be offset by fewer PP opportunities going forward.

What about player comparables? Looking at forwards who, like Aho and dating back to 2000-01, had 4+ seasons of scoring that ranged from 0.9 to 1.1 per game by age 24, we get Anze Kopitar. What did Kopitar go on to do? Mostly stay below the point per game mark but for one aberrational season. And the comparison seems fitting given their styles. So if Kopitar's career is indeed a blueprint for Aho's, it seems like a long shot to hope that Aho will make a leap, although Carolina is positioned to be more of a perennial offensive team than the Kings; yet that will be what likely gets Aho to the usual 80-85 point mark rather than finishing in the 60s and 70s like Kopitar did for most of his seasons.

Could it be that, to use one of my favorite expressions, a rising tide in Carolina is lifting all boats, including Aho's? Probably not, as the team already has seen its team scoring rise from 16th in 2018-19, to 14th in 2019-20, to 10th in 2020-21, to 9th 2021-22. All the while Aho's scoring stayed in neutral. Plus, they sit 18th for 2022-23 thus far. On the other hand, just one of Aho's ten assists have been secondary, suggesting points may have been left on the table. Then again, his total assists are right where they usually are.

Aho is a very solid NHL player. However, those who envision him making the leap into uncharted new scoring territory are setting themselves up for disappointment, much like has occurred with owners of Anze Kopitar and Mark Scheifele. Although it's difficult to think that Aho has hit his ceiling, that appears to be the case, meaning his production for the 2022-23 season thus far has been TOO HOT. When the dust settles, the smart money will be on Aho to land in the 80- to 85-point scoring range, with the exact number being determined by team offense and small variables in his individual numbers. He gets a rating of 7.75.

Jack Eichel (16 games, 9G, 10A, 60 SOG, 5 PPPts, 18:13 TOI, 2:52 PP, 62.6% PP%)

Selected second overall right after Connor McDavid in the same 2015 draft, Eichel was able to make his own mark, with a scoring rate that rose every season, peaking at 94 in 2019-20. Injury issues then put Eichel's career in question, and landed him in Las Vegas, where, upon his return after missing a huge chunk of time, he looked like a shell of his former self. But in the early going this season he's played more like the Eichel of old. Is what we've seen so far just the tip of the iceberg, or should we expect Eichel's scoring to rise? For now at least, data suggests that Eichel has the potential to improve even more.

It's no secret that in Buffalo, Eichel often was a one man show. He was so integral they put him out on the ice in every favorable situation. That's how, despite the team not being very successful, he managed to have an average ice time per game of 20:00+ for four straight seasons and an OZ% in each that was 59.0% or higher. It led to Eichel putting up very solid numbers, with 1.04 point per game cumulatively from the 2017-18 season through the 2020-21 campaign, which put him tied for 16th in point per game rate among forwards over that stretch. But due to all the ice time he received, he was down in 45th in points per 60 minutes of ice time.

Why does that matter? Because Vegas is not leaning on him nearly as much, with his ice time barely above 18:00 and him getting about 30 seconds less PP time per game. But the team, despite being defensively sound, is scoring well above what his Buffalo squads did, as never once while he was a Sabre did Buffalo average more than 2.80 goals per game in season where he played 60+ games. So far this season though, Vegas is averaging 3.69 goals per game, or nearly a goal better.

Eichel's ice time numbers are somewhat misleading, as three times in his last seven contests he saw over 20:00 TOI, scoring five points. My sense is the Knights were easing Eichel into things early. But now the training wheels are off, meaning he'll be playing more for a team scoring more, such that the sky is the limit for his production.

What about other metrics? Only twice has Eichel played 60+ games and shot at a rate less than he is now. But once was in his best ever season. What both had in common is 15.0%+ SH%. Eichel appears to be exercising shooting discipline that results in fewer chances to score, but a higher likelihood of scoring. Plus, when you think about it, he's actually shooting more when considering his lower ice time, with his SOG per 60 minutes being on track to finish in the middle of the pack as compared to his prior seasons.

Also promising are Eichel's IPP numbers. Eichel has factored into the scoring on five of the six PPGs scored while he was on the ice. And even though Vegas' offense ranks it third in the NHL, its PP conversion rate is only 11th best, meaning more PPGs should be coming, with Eichel reaping the benefits. Moreover, his overall IPP is above 72% just as it was for all his successful Sabres seasons. And this despite his quality of linemates being better than those with whom he shared the ice most seasons in Buffalo. So Eichel should be able to keep up his ES scoring pace even while he gets more PPPts.

Beyond that, Eichel is getting roughly the same percentage of secondary assists as he did in his glory years, and Eichel's rate of PPSOG is on a par with his seasons in Buffalo, as is, noted above, his OZ%, except this time it hasn't required him to skate as many minutes per game, and either that goes up and he benefits, or it's a case of less is more as he can know he won't have to play so much every night and carry the weight of his team on his shoulders.

Poolies who stood by Eichel while he missed time and looked little like the Eichel of old last season are being handsomely rewarded now. And things should only get better, as Eichel is in line for more ice time and better PP scoring, such that for 2022-23 he's TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 3.5, with the expectation being he should finish with 100-110 points.

Nico Hischier (14 games, 8G, 9A, 46 SOG, 3 PPPts, 19:30 TOI, 3:34 PP, 63.3 PP%)

Now in his sixth NHL campaign, the former first overall pick failed to score at even a 60-point rate prior to 2021-22. Not only did he finish with a scoring pace of 70 last season, but he ended very strong, with 36 points in his last 31 games. Lest anyone think that was a fluke, he's emerged for 2022-23 even better. But Jack Hughes also is blossoming. Is there room in New Jersey for two elite centers, or is Hischier just on an extended hot streak? The numbers suggest that the new look Hischier seems like the real deal.

It's not difficult to see why Hischier's scoring rate was so disappointing similar for his first few seasons, as his SOG per game ranged from 2.1-2.3, which is also why some were not so sure last season was indeed a realistic step in the right direction due to his SOG still being stuck in that same range. Fast forward to now, however, and it's 3.3 per contest, suggesting that if anything he might be underperforming, especially since even with the vastly upped SOG rate his SH% is actually higher than his norm. That higher rate is not a concern in that Hischier is still firing nearly as many pucks on net from 0-15 feet as 16-30, and more than from 31+, just like last season. All in all, no worries there.

What is, however, a big change for Hischier is his OZ%, which was a lowly 43.9% in 2020-21 and 46.4% last season, making some – myself included – think his scoring outburst at the end of the season might be unsustainable. For 2022-23, though, Hischier's OZ% it's 49.2%. The upward trend will likely continue as he scores more, helping him maintain his scoring pace or even upping it by at least enough so as to compensate if his SH% does drop to his usual level. This also is a sign that New Jersey sees Hischier not as a second fiddle center, but part of a one-two punch with Hughes.

The good news doesn't stop there though, as Hischier's percentage of PP minutes is rising, in keeping with him becoming more of an offensive focal point. And although I suspect Hischier will have a long PP1 leash, the concern is his PP IPP, which is 37.5% this season and has only once been over 57.5%. In fact, he's never had a season where he averaged one PPPt per even every five games, which is not good, nor is that he's taken the ice for the 93rd most PP minutes of any forward dating back to 2018-19 (63rdd most in PP time per game) but ranks tied for 111th in PPPts. Yet the team has stuck with him, and having already done so this long it's unlikely he loses his spot particularly as he's playing so well overall. Do I expect the PP scoring floodgates to open for Hischier? No in view of his subpar PP IPPs; but there's only one way to go and that's up, and that's especially true since despite his major gains in overall SOG rate he's actually shooting less frequently on the PP.

What about player comparables? Is there precedent for someone to have made a leap like this after starting his career with such unremarkable production? In a word, no. In the history of the NHL, just five other forwards, like Hischier, averaged between 0.5 and 0.7 points per game in each of their first four seasons at ages 19-22: Sam Gagner, Kyle Okposo, Wojtek Wolski, Radek Dvorak, and Eric Daze, none of whom, except for Okposo, ever scored at a 70+ point pace. Even if we widen the net to look at the 28 forwards who did so three times, only Patrick Marleau, David Perron and Gary Leeman were point per gamers in their career. For Hischier to have been so mediocre for so long and suddenly to awaken is a bit suspect; however, he does appear to be an entirely new player, like Marleau became.

What's also encouraging is Hischier's overall IPP was over 70% last season and this season thus far is as well, plus previously was 69.2% in one of his middling earlier campaigns. So not only does this lend legitimacy to his upped production, but it suggests he had this in him all along, despite what the player comparables might strongly suggest.

I talked above about players having stuck with Eichel, but those who did so with Hischier had to wait even longer for him to pay dividends. Now he's shooting more, getting more time in the offensive zone, and is still a PP1 staple despite his PP struggles. Yes, there is no sugarcoating the unfavorable player comparables; however, Hischier passes the sniff test from where I sit, so his 2022-23 thus far has been JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.5.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.