There is a lot of data to sift through in the fantasy hockey realm. Just perusing our Frozen Tools alone can have someone lost for hours, creating their own reports and parameters to see who is performing well, who isn't, signs of regression, changes in usage, or a whole slew of other reasons. One data set I like to use is from Corey Sznajder, a guy who hand-tracks hundreds of games every year across dozens of different micro-stats. One subset of these stats I've found useful are scoring chances and scoring chance assists, or passes leading to teammate scoring chances. Combining those two into scoring chance contributions (SCC) is helpful in picking out who is really helping generate scoring opportunities for himself or his team and who is not.

Of course, we are still just a quarter of the way-ish into the season and because there are so many games, we aren't looking at huge samples. A decent chunk of forwards have 100-plus 5-on-5 minutes tracked with many in the 60-100 range. I am going to use a cut-off of 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is only five games for most players, but can get us pointed in the right direction. We are also looking at a per-60-minute rate as well.

The Top Three

It probably isn't a huge surprise, but Jack Hughes, Brady Tkachuk, and Nathan MacKinnon are first, second, and third on our list, with Hughes out in front by 18% over second-place Tkachuk. If I am recollecting properly, they have been the top-3 all season long. People may wonder where someone like Connor McDavid is here, but I'd remind everyone that nearly half his production (17/35 points) has been on the man advantage. Edmonton has been one of the worst 5-on-5 scoring teams in the league this year, with only Chicago, Arizona, and Winnipeg scoring less per minute.

The Jack Hughes Experience continues to roll. Hopefully that 8.4% shooting does not.

Roope Hintz and Mark Stone

Rounding out the top-5 are Dallas's top centre and a rebounding winger in Vegas. Hintz has 86 points in his last 82 regular season games as he and Jason Robertson (and Joe Pavelski) continue to terrorize the Western Conference. I do think Robertson is an MVP candidate as we sit here today but Hintz is really starting to cement himself as a very productive centre.

There were a lot of questions about Stone's health coming into the season – remember the injury scare in the preseason alone? Well, he is on pace to push for a 70-point season and has six points in his last four games. He and Jack Eichel have been a formidable duo since being put together back at the end of October and they just continue to tear opposing defences apart. This is truly one of the top teams not only in the West, but the entire league.

Stone's Individual Points Percentage – the rate he garners a point when a goal is scored with him on the ice – is a career-low 56.3%. His three-year average heading into 2022-23 was 72%. If he was at that average this season, he'd have 23 points in 21 games, so he has more upside to give, fantasy-wise.

Aleksander Barkov

Just behind Stone is Florida's top center and we should expect big things in his next 60-some games. He has 14 points in his last 12 games and his 6.8% shooting is still less than half what his three-year average was (15.1%). With some good shooting luck, Barkov legitimately could threaten 100 points this season despite the slow start. It is a testament to how well he, and most of the Panthers, have been playing in 2022-23.

Tage Thompson

It seems I talk about him at least once a week, but his SCC rate has remained stable as the season has progressed, and he's sandwiched between Barkov and the next guy on our list, someone named "McJesus" apparently. Not sure how much more we need to see here but whew buddy, Tage is an unbelievable offensive talent.

Ryan O'Reilly

Rounding out the top-10, funnily enough, is the centrepiece of the trade that sent Thompson to Buffalo in the first place. Perhaps not as funnily, O'Reilly has just eight points (!) in 19 games on the season. The culprit is simple enough: the team is scoring 2.3 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths this year with ROR against 4.1 goals per 60 over the prior three seasons. The team is shooting 7.7% with him on the ice, his lowest mark in over a decade. If the players around him can start scoring, this should see him rebound in a big way over the final 60 games. If not, we could see more of the same. It won't be his fault, though, and I wonder if we see him moved at the trade deadline.

Ty Dellandrea

We have a name inside the top-20 we would not have anticipated to see here six weeks ago. Ty Dellandrea is nestled between the Pittsburgh duo of Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust and has 11 points in 20 games on the season. He is no longer considered a rookie thanks to all the games he played in the Bubble season but he's still a young prospect Dallas needed to see more from, and he's delivered. In fact, his points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.2) is higher than wingers like David Perron, Artemi Panarin, and Timo Meier, and he doesn't have a secondary assist yet on the campaign. His primary assist rate is top-10 in the NHL. He is off to a real good start.

The Next Group

At the bottom of the top tier of forwards is a grouping of players that fascinated me. Most top-end forwards manage north of 8.5 SCC per 60 minutes; nearing that mark are names like Mitch Marner, Jonathan Marchessault, and Mark Scheifele. At the bottom of the top-third of that group – the 8.5/60 group or the not-quite-elite overall but still-great-comparatively group – are these names:

We see stalwarts like Leon Draisaitl and Sidney Crosby, the next generation of great forwards like Nico Hischier and Alex DeBrincat, a few young stars like Alexis Lafrenière, Dylan Cozens, and Jordan Kyrou, and a mix of others.

The name that stuck out to me was Michael McLeod. He was the 12^th overall pick for New Jersey back in 2016 and on a team with so many rising stars, he was an afterthought. He is sitting at 2.5 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this year, higher than Hughes. A lot of it is secondary assists, and we know they can be random, but he's also shooting 5.3%. Improvement there can help offset the incoming 2A decline and keep his production steady. If this guy turns into a middle-6 offensive option? It makes a deep forward group that much deeper.

A quick shout out to Travis Konecny. He is currently injured but has been stuck on a pretty bad Flyers team for a few years now and is still generating a lot offensively. It is a wonder where his production might be on a better team, and it's still been excellent.

Martin Necas

The last guy I'll mention is Martin Necas. His SCC rate is still strong – a first-line rate – but he has slid from 11.6 per 60 minutes in October to 10.5 in November. He has just one (1) scoring chance assist in his last 50-ish tracked minutes, so there's some decline here. That has been reflected in his production as he went from 1.44 points/game in October to 0.91 in November. The team is 3-4-3 in their last 10 games and have not scored more than three goals in a game in six straight contests.

I do wonder about Carolina. They're clearly a very good team but Teuvo Teravainen is injured, Max Pacioretty looks to still be at least a month away, and Seth Jarvis has taken a huge step back this season. They need their wingers to carry the non-Sebastian Aho centres offensively and that problem is starting to glare. A healthy Teuvo/Patches and an improved Jarvis make completely remake this team, but we need to see it before we believe it. It is likely the difference between being a solid playoff team and a top-end Cup contender.

*

Yesterday's Ramblings saw a few things to be thankful for to this point of the NHL season. Today, we'll continue with a few more. They aren't necessarily going to be players but teams, lines, general situations, or whatever else comes to mind.

Los Angeles turning a corner

This one is a bit precarious because the Kings made the playoffs last year and are second in the division this year. However, they do have a minus-6 goal differential because over half their wins have been one-goal games. They are seventh in the league in expected goal share at 5-on-5, between the Bruins and Rangers, but just 19^th in overall goal share. The problem is their goaltending, which is last in the league by save percentage. Just average goaltending would shave well over 10 goals against off their total and give them a better goal differential than the Hurricanes, Panthers, and Lightning.

The goaltending is why this is precarious. I think the skaters, as a whole, have turned a corner, and this team could be a contender in the West if it improves. The emergence of Gabriel Vilardi, the elite play of the second line, Kevin Fiala bringing great scoring depth and now moving to the top line, and Arthur Kaliyev finding his scoring touch have all been awesome to see. If Brandt Clarke can return and be impactful, this is a team that could be fearsome if the goaltending rights itself. I am thankful to see a team rebuild on the fly successfully but there is one major piece that could be missing. 

New Jersey Shredding

At the Daily Fantasy Sports site I write for/create YouTube videos for, one of my preseason bets was not only for New Jersey to top the Conference, but to get to the Cup Final. I saw a team that performed similarly to teams like Florida and Minnesota offensively in the second half of last season, but injuries kept a rotation of AHL/ECHL goalies in net and they got their brains beat in because of it. I thought more growth from the triumvirate of Nico Hischier/Jack Hughes/Jesper Bratt, with a healthy Dougie Hamilton, the addition of John Marino, ample cap space (that they used on the now-injured Ondrej Palat), and help from young guys like Alexander Holtz and Dawson Mercer would help put them team on a path to being elite. All they needed was good goaltending.

Well, the good goaltending has arrived even if Holtz hasn't. In no way did I think they'd reel off 13 straight wins and be arguably the best team in the league (shouts to Boston and Vegas, and probably Colorado once they're healthy), but here we are. Vitek Vanecek has a .917 save percentage on the season so he hasn't been elite, but he has been good, and that's all they needed.

The Devils look like the Cup contender I had hoped they would be. It was a longshot that they'd reach this level this fast, but it could pay off in the end.

Rangers' Kid Line

It might seem odd to see this here, given that Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko, and Filip Chytil have combined for just 27 points on the season, just four more points than Artemi Panarin alone. However, all three players are driving play either offensively or defensively (both in Kakko's case) and have helped this team fill the gaps on the roster. They've been moved around the lineup but whether on the top two lines or as a unit on the third line, they've helped the Rangers be a top-10 team by expected goal share, something that plagued them last year. It has helped them weather low shooting percentages through the first quarter of the campaign. If they start finishing like they did last year, the team's 5-on-5 goal scoring could rise as much as 20% from where it is now. That would go a long way to cementing them as a top team in the East.

Now, actually finishing those chances is the key here. All the same, if they weren't playing as well as they are, the Rangers would have holes all over their forward lineup. Those holes are much less evident now and once the goals come this team is going to look like a wagon.

Seattle's Goaltending

In the same vein as New Jersey, my one concern for Seattle was goaltending. This was a team that was mid-pack by expected goal share over the final third of the 2021-22 season and added some excellent forward pieces in Andre Burakovsky and Oliver Bjorkstrand. With some good goaltending, my thought process went, this could very well be a playoff team in 2023. So far this season, they're ninth (!) in save percentage at 5-on-5. Martin Jones has a .906 save percentage on the year and a .923 in his last 11 games, a stretch that saw the team go 8-2-1. They are second in the Pacific, four points clear of Calgary and five of Edmonton.

Good goaltending makes all the difference in the world and if Jones can be a .910-plus goaltender on the year, I think we're looking at the third playoff team from the Pacific, or a Wild Card team at worst. What a world.