Capped: Early Disappointments from Barkov, Teravainen, and Dumba

Jamie Molloy

2022-12-08

With every surprise or huge performance that we get to witness throughout the regular season, we are also met with an equal number of disappointing performances as well. There are plenty of things that can lead to some unsettling productions, some of which can be being on a new team, being shifted up and down the lineup on a regular basis and being unable to form chemistry, injuries, lack of preparation in the offseason, and the list just goes on.
While the season is only young so far as most teams have one-third or fewer games played, there is still plenty of time for these players to find their groove and put together outstanding performances to make up for some lackluster starts.

* The top row in the stat tables are the players current stats this year, and the bottom row is their career stats. The power play and short-handed sections are for points in these respective areas. I know last season I was showing roster percentages for the players that I discuss, and I do plan on bringing that back, but I am not in any Yahoo leagues this season so for the time being I will not have their percentages listed for that platform. *

* Some of the stat lines that I will be listing may not seem disappointing in the grand scheme of what is considered a good season for an NHL player, its more-so me outlining that so far, the season has been subpar for these players in accordance with what we perceive them as. *

#1) Aleksander Barkov – C – Florida Panthers

Contract: $10M – 8 Years remaining
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 99%, ESPN – 99.5%

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
195137490111456.3%22:42
61522534616211651530438752.2%20:07


Like I said before, the stat lines that I may show here aren't necessarily bad stats overall, just that we expect a bit more from said players. The reason Barkov lands on this list is because this is the first season that we have seen him play away from Jonathan Huberdeau who got dealt to the Calgary Flames over the summer. In three of the last four seasons Barkov finished with over a point-per-game. He's currently fifth in points on the team, meanwhile playing fewer games than those ahead of him. Something to note is that the Panthers are 5th in the Atlantic division behind Boston, Toronto, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. While Barkov isn't solely the blame for this of course, his own statistics not meeting what we'd expect from him have played a part in that as well. This is a player we all expect to finish at that point-per-game mark or higher and I assume he will finish with that by the time game 82 comes along. There is a new head coach in Florida, along with a new superstar teammate in Matthew Tkachuk – both are things that take some time to adjust to. His average TOI is currently at a career high, and to me this says that he is playing more minutes in all situations which inherently can contribute to a reduction in points given the extra responsibility. For $10 million dollars in your fantasy team's salary cap, I recommend other players personally.

#2) Teuvo Teravainen – LW – Carolina Hurricanes

Contract: $5.4M – 2 Years remaining
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 80%, ESPN – 61.6%

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
160735108463.6%16:27
54211825811951241317319645.%16:50


To be blunt, a player making over $5M per season who is known for point production as a second-line player – you shouldn't have zero goals to start the season and be under half a point-per-game-pace. While Teravainen has been hurt for 10 games so far, the season, he's still played in just shy of 20% of the 82 games total. That truly isn't good enough production wise for a player of his caliber and his playstyle. There also seems to be more competition in Carolina than there has been in recent years which could also play a factor in a potential down year for Teravainen. Players around him have taken a step it seems; Martin Necas currently leads the team in points and recent first round pick Seth Jarvis is currently at 0.5 points per game as it stands. The Hurricanes are currently second in the Metropolitan division, behind the New Jersey Devils. They can make the playoffs and realistically they will roll with whatever line combinations are getting them wins, so if that means Teravainen slides down the lineup, he may not be a super valuable $5.4M player this season. I still believe he will turn it around; he is too talented not to – but there should be some concerns with his play to begin the year for sure.

#3) Matt Dumba – D – Minnesota Wild

Contract: $6M – 1 Year remaining
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 42%, ESPN – 14.7%

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GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
2425300035340%21:07
543771521052743747617100%20:33


Throughout his career, he has only played in a full 82-game season once, and that year he had a career year with 50 points (14 goals). This year through a full 82-game season, he is on pace to finish with seven. I was always a Matt Dumba fan but looking back through his career stats I'm not too sure why. I always viewed him as a guy who could turn into a 40-point defenseman each season. He topped 30 points twice, once was 6 years ago where he had 34 points and the other was five seasons ago where he had 50 points. Injury has been prevalent throughout his career as well like I said, so I can see why the point totals never really came in bunches. He isn't listed as being on a powerplay currently for the Wild, the Wild coaching staff have entrusted the PP1 slot to rookie, Calen Addison and the secondary has been seemingly given to Jared Spurgeon. There really isn't much room for Dumba to produce on the back end offensively. Overall though he is a solid provider in the hits and blocks category, along with being safe for playing 20 minutes or more each night. Realistically though, having a defender on your fantasy roster for $6M as a player who is a peripheral specialist is not the best idea when there are much cheaper alternatives who offer better in those areas than Dumba does. You'd also be more likely able to pick those players up off free agency/waivers versus having to trade for him.

Overall, a season can be make or break by what players you have and you're hoping for them to be key contributors for you each night – but the nature of the game for fantasy sports is keeping an eye on trends and being able to assess how those trends will play out. Things that I generally keep an eye on when it comes to thinking how a player will do for the upcoming season are as follows; injuries (to the player in question or to the linemates they'd normally have), coaching changes, recent trades, previous season stats.

If you're looking to discuss anything hockey with me, check out my Twitter account (@JamieMolloy_DH), as well as on the articles themselves!

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