The Pittsburgh goaltending situation has been muddled of late with an injury to Tristan Jarry. He has just three starts since Christmas as he's made his way in and out of the lineup. This has forced the Penguins to recall Dustin Tokarski:

Kasperi Kapanen is taking part in team practice wearing a no-contact jersey. Tristan Jarry, who missed last night's game with an upper-body injury, is absent. Dustin Tokarski is here after being recalled from WBS.

— Pens Inside Scoop (@PensInsideScoop) January 25, 2023

Tokarski has made two appearances for the Penguins this month, going 1-1 as he spelled off Casey DeSmith in one of his starts. Pittsburgh is 5-6-3 since Christmas as they look to right the ship heading into the final third of the season.

This looks like a frustrating situation for fantasy owners. Jarry has been good over his last four full seasons with the Penguins, posting a .918 save percentage in 157 appearances (152 starts). However, he suffered a serious injury heading into the postseason last year, which greatly hurt Pittsburgh's playoff chances, and now he's dealing with this lower-body problem. Whatever the issue, it seems like it'll be hard to rely on him anytime soon, especially given the news that came later in the day:

Jarry is out until after the all star break.

— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_PGH) January 25, 2023

It is going to be a waiver-wire dance for fantasy owners and starting Pittsburgh goalies. Maybe this even changes the team's approach to the trade deadline? Do they want to bet on one of the few years remaining in their core's Cup window on Jarry being healthy in April and May?

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Cam Talbot was injured in Ottawa's 2-1 win over the New York Islanders on Wednesday night. He left the game near the mid-point and did not return. The team said after the game that updates may be provided on Thursday.

Noah Dobson did not play for the Islanders.

Ridly Greig looked good in his debut, assist on Claude Giroux's power play goal, landing eight shots on goal in less than 14 minutes of ice time. He could be a much-needed injection of offence for this team.

Jake Sanderson had a pair of assists, one shot, and a block in a solid multi-cat fantasy effort.

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Filip Chytil scored twice for the Rangers but it wasn't enough as the Leafs took a 3-2 overtime win in Toronto. Timothy Liljegren tied the game late and Mitch Marner capped off the victory less than 20 seconds into overtime on a beautiful drive to the net:

MITCHELLY MARNER!!!!! pic.twitter.com/JgrIqQrONw

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) January 26, 2023

Ilya Samsonov stopped 27 of 29 shots faced in the win.

Kaapo Kakko assisted on one of Chytil's goals and he has 15 points in 21 games, with just two of those coming on the power play. His production increase has been a welcome sign and this level of play without those prime minutes would be a solid season.

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Frederik Andersen left his start after the first period and did not return. More on this when news is available but this could be a crucial injury for the team and fantasy players.

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A couple of days ago in these Ramblings, I discussed improvements from last season to this season by scoring chance contributions per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (SCC/60). To put it simply, SCC/60 is just adding a player's individual scoring chances and their assists on a teammate's scoring chance, and using a 60-minute rate. This data comes from Corey Sznajder who has it posted on his Patreon. He manually tracks hundreds of games from all teams in a variety of areas that aren't available elsewhere, one of them being those scoring chance assists. They are helpful for fantasy to see who is really involved in the offence. Those Ramblings covered improvements from some forwards, so this one will cover the defencemen. We are going to limit it to blue liners with 200 minutes tracked last year and 100 minutes tracked this year. Additional data will come from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick.

Just for posterity: none of this makes for concrete conclusions, just for directions to look. We will exclude Rasmus Dahlin and Dougie Hamilton because those are too obvious given their current season's output.

Fox For Norris (Again)

I had a long thread on Twitter a week ago about Adam Fox and how good he's been this year, so anyone that uses that hellsite can check out my extended thoughts there. Suffice to say, he's been unbelievable. A year ago, he was a top-10 defenceman in the NHL by SCC/60, showing out as one of the best young offensive talents on the blue line in the league. This year has gone to another level as he leads second-place Roman Josi by 30% in this regard:

That is mostly because he has seen the largest increase of SCC/60 for the 163 rearguards in the sample. He took a top-10 number, added a lot to it, and now exceeds Josi by 30%. It really is quite the unbelievable performance. This jump in scoring chance creation bears out in the numbers as the team scores one-third of a goal more every 60 minutes with him on the ice than the next-closest Rangers defenceman, generating more shots and shot attempts. He is fourth in points among his brethren across the NHL and could crack 80 points even with a slight downturn. Fox has been nothing short of supernova for New York this season.

Keeping a rate 30% higher than the next player behind him feels much too high to sustain but it's clear that Fox has cemented himself as an all-world player at both ends of the ice.  

Connor Clifton

Much to my surprise, the second-largest year-over-year increase in SCC/60 was from Boston's Connor Clifton:

Then I checked his stats and he has 13 points in 47 games, or 23 points per 82 games. That is compared to 20 points in his first 154 games, or 11 points every 82 games. He has nearly as many goals this season (4) as he did in his entire career beforehand (5). All of this is very confusing to me.

What is throwing me off even more is that he has played just 20% of his 5-on-5 time with Patrice Bergeron. The whole team is good but that he's not skating all that much with the top line is a good sign. His numbers are better with Bergeron on the ice with him, but everyone's are. It should also be noted that Clifton has played over 20 minutes in three of his last four games, having not had a 20-minute game since mid-November. He can put up great peripherals so there might be something here long-term? Something to monitor for the rest of this season, at any rate.

Carson Soucy

One reason I pay attention to micro-stats like this is, sometimes, they can help identify a player that could really be a useful fantasy piece via either a breakout or a rebound from a downturn. A few recent examples are Jake Walman, Cam York, and Shayne Gostisbehere. (Granted, York was a highly-touted prospect and Ghost had been productive before, but York was demoted to the AHL while Ghost was cap fodder sent to Arizona.) All this is to say there's a new player that I'm hoping to add to this list, and it's Carson Soucy.

What caught my eye with Soucy was simply his per-minute production. Over his first three season – 169 games – he managed 1.08 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That was 82^nd percentile in the league, which is a top-pair rate, and higher than names like Zach Werenski, Mikhail Sergachev, Darnell Nurse, and Torey Krug. Looking at this season, he's had a top-20 improvement when looking at all defencemen, and lines up with a few very notable players, including Clifton:

With Justin Schultz injured, Soucy has been getting some secondary power-play minutes, though his overall ice time has not increased. He could have excellent peripherals if he skated 20 minutes a night rather than 16.

Runway is getting short here as Soucy turns 29 this summer and even a late-bloomer like Walman was showing signs of NHL production potential in his age-24 and age-25 seasons. Soucy has shown signs of productivity but it isn’t translating to a bigger role. He is also an unrestricted free agent this summer. Though not usually an ideal landing spot, if Arizona trades both Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun, with all that young talent, maybe he could step into a bigger role? Soucy is another player to monitor.

Dante Fabbro

Landing just inside the top-15 for improvement in SCC/60 is Nashville's Dante Fabbro. It would be hard to conclude that, given his eight points in 44 games, but there are reasons for his stifled production. The addition of Ryan McDonagh introduced someone who could eat more minutes, so Fabbro has lost three minutes of TOI per game compared to his last three seasons. It also doesn't help that the team is scoring a half-goal less per 60 minutes with him on the ice at 5-on-5 compared to last year, part of the team's regression as a whole. What is worth noting, however, is that the team is generating more shot attempts, more shots on goal, and more expected goals with Fabbro on the ice than any prior season. A lot of his issues are simply due to a team-wide shooting percentage drop.

Just for fun, this is the defenceman that Fabbro is directly next to in SCC/60 for this season:

I got a kick out of that.

Fabbro was a highly touted draft pick and did go 17^th overall, but that was seven years ago. He is also on a roster that has all of Josi, McDonagh, Mattias Ekholm, and Jérémy Lauzon signed for at least three more seasons. There is a good chance that Fabbro is never higher than fourth on the depth chart for a couple seasons yet and improved offence from him may not be enough. He is a restricted free agent, though, so maybe he's dealt in the summer. He is an intriguing player to keep tabs on.