Fantasy Take: Boston Trades For Bertuzzi
Michael Clifford
2023-03-02
When Detroit traded defenceman Filip Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks for a pair of draft picks, including a first-rounder, it appeared another shoe was going to drop. It did not come in the form of Jakob Chychrun (he's in Ottawa now) or Erik Karlsson (he should be back in Ottawa but I digress), but rather it came in the form of sending out a pending unrestricted free agent:
The full trade is a 2024 first-round pick (top-10 protected) and a 2025 fourth-round pick going back to Detroit, while the Red Wings retain 50% of Bertuzzi’s remaining cap hit.
Bertuzzi has had injury problems over the last few seasons, but he's still managed 39 goals over his last 106 games, or a 30-goal pace in a full season. He leaves Detroit after parts of seven seasons and 305 regular season games, and now finds himself in Boston with the hope of a Stanley Cup. Let's break it down with help from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick.
What Boston Gets
As I've stated in Ramblings this week and last week, Detroit's top line has performed much, much better without Lucas Raymond over the last couple seasons, and that effect extends to Bertuzzi. Over the last two years, he averaged 2.19 points/60 minutes when Raymond was on the ice with him but 2.92 without him. For reference, over the last two seasons, that is a number higher than names like Patrice Bergeron, Nico Hischier, Mark Scheifele, Mathew Barzal, and Zach Hyman. If he can produce at that level on a per-minute basis in Boston, it could be a huge improvement for him.
Bertuzzi is kind of a Swiss Army knife at forward. Not by position, but by style, as he can score, he's a decent playmaker, he's good in transition, the defence is passable (not great), and he can draw penalties. This is all backed up by the tracking data collected by Corey Sznajder. He has also been used often against top competition:
Now, that was last year, and there are some top comp minutes being taken by the Andrew Copp line this year, but the trade-off this season is many more defensive zone starts. Regardless, he has a history of being able to produce very well against top comp, and often alongside a young player that was being played too far up the lineup far too often.
Going to Boston is a problem, though. They have so many options for the top PP unit that Taylor Hall, who is just 31 years old and has an MVP to his name, was struggling for PP1 minutes since getting to Boston, even with injuries. Bertuzzi's best hope is that he goes right to the second line with David Krejci and David Pastrnak. The problem for fantasy owners is if he's next to Charlie Coyle on the third line – and Taylor Hall is hurt right now – and on the second PP unit. Even if the trade upgrades his team as a whole, if he goes from top line/top PP minutes to third line/second PP minutes, there's going to be a big hit to his fantasy value. He needs that second-line role, so we'll see how Boston decides to use him. Considering they basically have the Conference locked up, he might be used in a few different spots over the next six weeks.
Detroit had a glut of wingers that was forcing them to scratch guys like Jakub Vrana or Filip Zadina every game of late. This helps free up a top-6 role whether it's directly on Dylan Larkin's line or whether someone else moves up and that leaves a spot open down the lineup. It should help secure their roles on the team, if not necessarily a fantasy-relevant role. This likely pushes Raymond back to the top PP unit at least, if not back to the top line as well.
When Hall is healthy, the Boston lineup is interesting. Before Bertuzzi, the top-6 was full and there was either of Nick Foligno or Trent Frederic on the third line. Bertuzzi/Hall will be the wing duo on that line when Hall is healthy (unless they make a swap with Pavel Zacha), so Foligno/Frederic are about to see even less of a role, and less consistently. It does give them lots of options for the top-6 if someone hits a cold streak, though, so while it doesn't hurt Zacha or Jake DeBrusk right now, it could over the next several weeks.
Who This Helps
Who This Hurts