21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2023-03-05

Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

1. If you took the day off work to watch the hours of coverage from one of the sports networks that covers the NHL, hopefully you enjoyed the singing, acting, trivia, endless panel discussions, and other filler during that time. Although there were a couple of fantasy-relevant trades and many other minor deals, this trade deadline day might be remembered more for who didn’t get traded.

James van Riemsdyk? Couldn’t get it done in time, resulting in a major missed opportunity for the Flyers and maybe an acquiring team.

Nick Schmaltz? The Coyotes also could have improved their Connor Bedard odds while punking the league even more by holding more injured reserve and dead cap space than actual players.

J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and/or Conor Garland? Nah, the Canucks don’t need more draft picks. They’re loading up for a run at 20th place next season. Sigh. I don’t think there’s a fanbase in the NHL that’s more furious at its management and ownership right now. The two Pennsylvania teams are giving them a run for their money.

Granted, the major names were all dealt within a week before the deadline. If something’s that important, why procrastinate until the very last minute to complete it? I guess fans enjoy the buildup and the drama, but there really wasn’t a whole lot on Friday. 

Our two Fantasy Take articles from Friday:

Vrana to St. Louis
Klingberg to Minnesota (mar4)

2. You can comb through all the trades in our Trade Deadline Tracker. There may be one or two deals that are of particular interest to you involving the team you follow. This page not only shows the list of trades, but also links to player profiles, the forum threads, and the fantasy analysis. (mar4)

3. Jordan Greenway, just traded to Buffalo, is now 26 years old and has just seven points in 45 games this season. Does that mean that’s it for him? Not necessarily. (mar4)

Greenway is an extra-large forward (6-6, 231 lbs.) who has played in just over 300 NHL games. That means he hasn’t reached that 400-game threshold for large forwards, which means that there’s still time. But if it doesn’t happen in the next season or two, it never will.

In addition, Alex Tuch (another power forward) is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, which could open up a spot on the Tage Thompson line for Greenway. Or if Jack Quinn continues to fill that spot, Greenway could fill a middle-six role. Something to keep an eye on. (mar4)

4. If you’re waiting on Ty Smith, then the Dmitry Kulikov trade isn’t going to help matters. The Pens now have Brian Dumoulin, Marcus Pettersson, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, and now Kulikov all on the left side. Smith has 15 points in 30 AHL games, which isn’t bad but isn’t exactly lighting it up either. Both Dumoulin and Kulikov are UFAs in the offseason, which could clear things up a bit. (mar4)

5. Jared McCann has reached the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career. He has goals in three consecutive games and eight points over his last five games. Also, no player with at least 30 goals has as few assists as McCann (18 A). (mar4)

6. Shayne Gostisbehere made his Hurricanes debut on Friday, and it happened to be against his former team in Arizona. Ghost scored a power-play goal while taking three shots in just under 17 minutes of icetime. He was used on the third pair with Jalen Chatfield while also being used on the second-unit power play. For more on his move to Carolina, check out the Fantasy Take from Alex. (mar4)

7. Dawson Mercer scored again on Friday, giving him at least one goal in eight consecutive games. That’s the longest goal streak of the season and ties the Devils franchise record. Over those eight games, Mercer has 10 goals and 15 points. This recent hot run has allowed the 21-year-old Mercer to reach the 20-goal and 40-point mark in just his second NHL season. The goal scoring will cool off, but he’s looking like a legitimate top-6 forward and perhaps more. (mar4)

8. The Bruins will continue to receive heaping helpings of Pasta for the foreseeable future, allowing their fans to breathe a sigh of relief. David Pastrnak has agreed to an eight-year contract worth $90 million total, which works out to a $11,250,000 AAV.

One key reason for the Bruins’ success is the willingness to take hometown discounts for the team, with no forward on the books for more than $7 million. Pastrnak obviously deserves what he is receiving, and the cap ceiling should eventually increase in a meaningful way, but Boston may find it a little more difficult to dominate starting next season. Pastrnak is an elite scorer, so his value should not dip that much in cap leagues.

By the way, Pastrnak is the first Bruin to reach 80 points this season. No other Bruin has reached 55 points, demonstrating how critical he is to the Bruins’ attack. (mar3)

9. I had no idea that Dmitry Orlov‘s offensive production would explode upon being traded to Boston. Yet Orlov has nine points in his four games as a Bruin. Orlov might be experiencing the same effect that Hampus Lindholm did upon jumping to the Bruins, where he simply produces better numbers as a result of playing for a superior team – no deep dive explanation. Lindholm has reached his first 40-point season in his first full season with the Bruins in spite of offensive zone starts that are about 6-7% lower this season than they were in his previous two seasons mostly spent with Anaheim. (mar3)

10. Patrick Kane and Jakob Chychrun both made their debuts with their new teams in the same game on Thursday, which turned out to be a 5-3 win for the Senators over the Rangers.

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Kane was held without a point with a minus-2 and four shots, playing on a line with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. My inclination is that matching former Blackhawks teammates Kane and Panarin on the same line would be the best approach. Kane was also on the top power play, bumping fellow recent acquisition Vladimir Tarasenko from that top unit. Expect Kane to salvage some of his draft-day value in single-season leagues now that he has moved to team that is playing for something beyond pride. (mar3)

11. Claude Giroux has 11 points in his last five games, vaulting over the point-per-game mark (63 PTS in 62 GP). He’s on his highest point-per-game pace in four seasons. The move to Ottawa seems to be agreeing with him. (mar3)

12. On Thursday, Blackhawks' Tyler Johnson, Andreas Athanasiou, Taylor Raddysh, and Philipp Kurashev all received first-unit power-play time. Feels like an expansion team. No, not the Golden Knights or even the Kraken version of one. More like the Senators in their first year. Or the inaugural version of the Vancouver Grizzlies, if I can throw in a basketball reference. The only difference is that the Blackhawks have been around for nearly 100 years. But when you have a chance to draft Connor Bedard, you just have to take it. As the song below says. (mar3)

13. From a fantasy perspective, Filip Hronek should get similar minutes now given the state of Vancouver’s blue line, but the power play minutes are gone. Quinn Hughes has that top role locked unless he’s injured so the best hope for Hronek is a 3F/2D power play at some points. Entering Saturday action, 16 of Hronek's 38 points were recorded on the power play this season, while every Vancouver defenceman combined except Hughes had five. (mar2)

14. Colorado is a team I enjoy watching, Lars Eller is a former Hab I enjoyed watching, so seeing him get dealt to Colorado was nice. He hasn’t been playing the same these last couple of seasons as he had been the few years prior and he turns 34 years old in May. All the same, if he’s used in a third/fourth-line role, those guys aren’t getting a big spotlight in Colorado. He may not be asked to play 15-16 minutes per contest for the Avs as he had been these last two seasons for the Caps – his new team has just six forwards averaging 15 minutes a night, and eight sitting at 13:30 or higher. Depending how much they want to use him, ice time could go down a bit here. There isn’t much fantasy value outside the deepest multi-cat formats but I’m just happy as a fan.  (mar2)

15. I have to admit a bit of an oversight on my part. I didn’t even have Jake Walman in my spreadsheet and as a result he didn’t make it into the 2023 free agent salary projections. I have added him though, and his projected number was $2.9 million, which fits in fairly well with his new $3.4 million cap hit on his three-year extension. He has performed very well with Mo Seider on the top pairing for Detroit, and may sit there for the next few years, which would make it a bargain contract for a top-pairing guy. (mar1)

16. This past week was the NHL debut for the Predators' top skater selected in the 2020 draft, Luke Evangelista. With the Preds looking to reset, there could be a full-time spot for him next year, though he will have to contend with Juuso Parssinen, Philip Tomasino, and others. (mar1)

17. Fantasy players (speaking for me, at least) were clamoring for Timo Meier to get more ice time/consistent top PP minutes in San Jose and it finally happened these last two seasons. The issue was the team was (and is) on a big downswing when it finally happened. Now he’s going to a team (Devils) on a big upswing and he should have a consistent role with a better supporting cast.

What this trade means for seasons to come, well, we can talk about that in the summer. For now, New Jersey is considerably better than they were, and it gives New Jersey the top-line winger they needed to complement Jesper Bratt as they march towards the postseason. (feb28)

18. Just to touch briefly on Tanner Jeannot and the return, we just went through this last year with Brandon Hagel. Maybe an extra pick or whatever, but Hagel cost two first-round picks when Tampa Bay acquired him and at time of writing, he had as many points in 2022-23 as Alex DeBrincat. At time of trade, Jeannot has seen a shooting percentage crash this season but for his entire career, his goals/60 rate (0.83) is a second-line rate comparable to, quelle surprise, Hagel at 0.84.

Whether Jeannot works out as well as guys like Hagel, or Blake Coleman, or Barclay Goodrow, or Nick Paul, well, that’s why they play the games. But the price for a mid-20s RFA middle-6 winger that can be extended for very cheap was established last year at two first-round picks. This year, one of those firsts turned into a second rounder and a slew of lower picks.

Good for Nashville for getting a lot of late kicks at the can, but if even one of those late picks turns into a Jeannot-type player in five years, it does nothing for Tampa Bay’s current core. They are taking the swings that Pittsburgh won’t, and it’s reflected both in their Cup odds and their current standings positions.

19, Fantasy-wise, the hope is that Tanner Jeannot can slide onto the second line in Alex Killorn‘s spot. That could put Jeannot in a position to improve immediately. More likely, though, is a bottom-6 spot and basically just a transfer of production from Nashville. Like Timo Meier, this seems lateral for Jeannot fantasy-wise, at least for this season, if he doesn’t get moved to the top-6. A positive shooting percentage regression would go a long way, though. (feb28)

20. If you haven’t noticed Tommy Novak yet – take a look – click on his name. He’s up to 23 points in 29 on the year. He’s 25 years old and has been waiting a long time for a real NHL shot. His AHL numbers were never extraordinary until 2020-21 when he started becoming a point-per-game player at that level. He’s primarily a setup man and needs to be alongside snipers. (feb27)

21. Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $74.99 until the playoffs. That’s right: 25% off! Order it here!

Have a good week, folks stay safe!!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Oct 22 - 18:10 PHI vs WSH
Oct 22 - 18:10 FLA vs MIN
Oct 22 - 18:10 N.J vs T.B
Oct 22 - 19:10 BUF vs DAL
Oct 22 - 19:10 MTL vs NYR
Oct 22 - 19:10 CBJ vs TOR
Oct 22 - 19:10 NYI vs DET
Oct 22 - 20:10 STL vs WPG
Oct 22 - 20:10 CHI vs VAN
Oct 22 - 20:10 SEA vs COL
Oct 22 - 20:10 NSH vs BOS
Oct 22 - 21:10 EDM vs CAR
Oct 22 - 21:10 UTA vs OTT
Oct 22 - 21:10 CGY vs PIT
Oct 22 - 22:10 ANA vs S.J
Oct 22 - 23:10 VGK vs L.A

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
ROSS COLTON COL
YEGOR CHINAKHOV CBJ
PHILIP BROBERG STL
MORGAN FROST PHI
OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON TOR

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JOEL HOFER STL
ANTHONY STOLARZ TOR
KAAPO KAHKONEN COL
KEVIN LANKINEN VAN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CHI Players
26.1 TEUVO TERAVAINEN NICK FOLIGNO CONNOR BEDARD
18.4 PHILIPP KURASHEV TAYLOR HALL TYLER BERTUZZI
18.2 ILYA MIKHEYEV RYAN DONATO JASON DICKINSON

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Injured Goalies and Ice Cold Defense

Jeremy and Shams cover a long list of injury updates which is headlined by several goalies. After that they cover new lines and their fantasy impact. The show is closed out by a list of ice cold highly drafted defensemen and a group of surprising forwards from an unsuspecting team.

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