Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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DobberHockey’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide is now available in the Dobber Shop! Team-by-team overviews updated through to the start of the regular season to reflect injuries, trades, or other pertinent information.

The French version, le Guide des Poolers, is also available. You can pre-order it here. 

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1. Can you believe that the NHL season starts one month from now? No, not preseason games. No, not early games from another continent. Actual regular-season games on North American soil. Yes, the regular season now starts in late September as opposed to early October. That begs another question: Where did the summer go?

With Yahoo leagues having just reopened, I participated in my first mock draft of the season. I picked the 12-team draft with Yahoo default settings, which I believe are still G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits, W, GAA, and SV%. I used the Top 100 Roto Rankings and Yahoo default rankings to help me. For full results, go to my personal blog Goods Fantasy Hockey.

– 1-3: Nikita Kucherov (TB – RW)
I used an online random number generator from 1-12 to decide where I should pick, and it landed on 3. That meant Kucherov was an easy first pick for me at third overall, as I have him third in the Roto Rankings behind Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon. Not surprisingly, McDavid and MacKinnon were drafted ahead of Kucherov in this draft as well, in that order. Can I say the first three picks in fantasy drafts this season are as easy as 1-2-3?

I’ll save you a click if you just want to see how the rest of the first round went:

– 4: Cale Makar
– 5: Macklin Celebrini
– 6: Zach Werenski
– 7: Leon Draisaitl
– 8: Andrei Vasilevskiy
– 9: David Pastrnak
– 10: Kirill Kaprizov
– 11: Quinn Hughes
– 12: Evan Bouchard

The only picks that raised my eyebrows were Werenski and Vasilevskiy. That seems high for where Werenski has been going, but he has also piled up back-to-back 80-point seasons. Only Makar has more points among defensemen over the past two seasons than Werenski. As for Vasilevskiy, it’s more about a goaltender being risky as a first-round pick.

– 2-22: Jack Eichel (VGK – C)
I went to the center position for my second pick in Jack Eichel. I could have picked Matt Boldy or Mikko Rantanen and both would have been great picks in this spot as well.

– 3-27: Mikko Rantanen (DAL – RW,LW)
Boldy was picked right before this pick, making this an easy decision. I’m kind of surprised both were still available after pick 25. I’d question the likes of Connor Hellebuyck (trade request) and Cutter Gauthier (unsigned) being selected before Rantanen.

– 4-46: Artemi Panarin (LA – LW)
I had my eye on Mitch Marner for my fourth-round pick, but he was picked right before this pick. I still want to draft scoring, so I picked Panarin. I was thinking about Clayton Keller with this pick, so I quickly went to the Roto Rankings to decide between the two. Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin were still on the board, while Yahoo has placed Scott Wedgewood in that goalie tier as well.  

– 5-51: Sidney Crosby (PIT – C)
Crosby was too tempting to pass up in the fifth round, even with Keller still there (he was picked right after). Leo Carlsson was also available and he may break out, but there’s going to be a ton of pressure on him with that contract. I’m happy with what I have at the center position, though.  

– 6-70: Lucas Raymond (DET – RW)
I know I'm going to have to pick some defensemen soon. I had my eye on Adam Fox… guess what? Picked right before me! I didn’t have much time, so I went with what I thought was the best player available and decided to wait for a defenseman on my next pick. Shortly after my pick, I noticed that Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi, Josh Morrissey, and John Carlson were available. Maybe one or more will still be there. Otherwise, I’ll have to start looking at peripheral categories such as hits.

– 7-75: Erik Karlsson (PIT – D)
I was undecided between Karlsson and Josh Morrissey, although the Roto Rankings have Morrissey a bit higher. Hopefully Morrissey will be around for my next pick, but I doubt it. After I drafted my six forwards, I thought I would pick four consecutive defensemen, then two goalies, then fill up my bench. These mock drafts go way too quickly to make the sort of pick that you can put a lot of thought into.

– 8-94: John Carlson (TB – D)
And yes, of course, Morrissey goes right before me, so another Carlson it is. He has the potential to have a big year in Tampa Bay. My defense is a little older, but that's fine. This is just a mock draft, and I probably need to do some more of these before the real thing.

– 9-99: Brandon Bussi (CAR – G)
My goal was to start thinking about goalies at pick 100, and I grabbed Bussi right around there. Looks like he had fallen a bit. He'll probably be in a goaltending battle with Pyotr Kochetkov in Carolina. I figure Carolina will win a lot of games, so he should be fine.

– 10-118: Dylan Larkin (DET – C)
Needing more defensemen, I was looking at Vince Dunn, but guess what… picked right before my turn.  Shea Theodore was the player I immediately turned to after Bussi, but he was grabbed several picks before. Regardless, Larkin seems like a great value pick after pick 100, regardless of whether he plays in Detroit or elsewhere.  

– 11-123: Mark Stone (VGK – RW)
Stone will probably get injured again, but when he is in the lineup, he's a point-per-game player. It’s hard to sleep on that if he even reaches 70 games, which he has not done since 2018-19. 

– 12-142: Jet Greaves (CBJ – G)
Greaves should play a lot with Elvis Merzlikins injured. He already did last season by appearing in 55 games. Columbus might not be very good, but I think he's a great Zero G option if he happens to be available for you.

– 13-147: Mattias Ekholm (EDM – D)
I was looking at Simon Nemec, but he was selected not one, but two picks before me. To the mock draft’s credit, there didn’t look like there were many autopickers, even in the evening on the West Coast. I need defensemen, and I let a targeted one slip away again. That's something I'm going to have to practice here. Not really happy with the Ekholm selection, but that’s the best I could do with the limited time.

– 14-166: Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR – G)
Very late in the draft, I picked the other Carolina goalie. That could be quite a tandem, and they weren't that expensive.

– 15-171: Jacob Trouba (SJ – D)
Trouba is my late-round pick because I don't have an overly physical lineup. He'll help me in the hits category. If you’re like me and you left defensemen late, whether it be accidentally or on purpose, use the position to fill peripheral categories that they can best provide. I don’t think this mock draft counted blocked shots, but I would have targeted that category if I knew that it did.

– 16-190: Sam Malinski (COL – D)

The forwards that are left aren't all that appealing, which means I’ll draft Malinski as my final pick. He should help with a bit of scoring, and I don't know if my plus-minus will be that great on this team. Maybe it will be okay, but Malinski playing for Colorado should help in that category. The last pick on any team is probably the player most likely to be dropped, unless you can cash in and find a super sleeper.

Well, that’s my draft. I loaded up on scoring forwards, could have done a lot better on defense, and I like the goalies that I waited on. I don’t have the youngest team, but there are a lot of proven options. I will definitely need more practice before the real thing, although mock drafts don’t give me the time that I need to make the best possible pick (30 seconds I believe). When it’s your first draft of the year, that seems more like three seconds. But as they say, practice makes perfect. (aug30)

2. The Canucks are betting big on Zeev Buium being the real deal, signing the 20-year-old defenseman to an eight-year contract with a cap hit of $9.38 million ($75.04 million total). Buium finished with 12 points in 45 games with the Canucks after being traded from Minnesota as the main piece in the Quinn Hughes trade. In his rookie season last season, he totaled 26 points in 76 games split between Minnesota and Vancouver.

Contract-wise, the recent rise in the salary cap ceiling affected the cap hit of this deal. On top of that, this will also be one of the last (if not the last) eight-year contracts signed, as contracts of that duration will no longer be allowed as of September 15. Salary cap leaguers will still have another season of Buium’s current contract of just under $1 million before the new deal kicks in. If former first-round pick Buium reaches his upside, this contract could pay dividends.

By signing this deal, Buium has already established himself as a cornerstone piece of the Canucks’ current rebuild. He may not take over as the defenseman on the Canucks’ top power play to start the season, but it should only be a matter of time. Filip Hronek has been effective in that role since Hughes was traded, particularly in the last 20 games of the season. Over that span, 10 of Hronek’s 13 points were with the man advantage.

Overall, Buium isn’t necessarily a player to target in single-season leagues, unless you play in a very deep league. However, his value should increase as the Canucks’ young scoring talent continues to develop. (sep5)

3. Some other signings:

The Leafs signed forward Brendan Brisson to a one-year, two-way contract. Brisson played in just three NHL games last season with the Rangers, recording one point. Brisson was a 2020 first-round pick (29^th overall) of Vegas. He will likely start the season for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies.  

The Kraken signed forward Jacob Melanson to a three-year contract worth a total of $4.35 million. Melanson appeared in 36 games for Seattle last season, recording five points. Melanson also recorded 19 points in 28 AHL games. He could be splitting time between Seattle and Coachella Valley of the AHL again this season.

The Sabres signed defenseman Zach Metsa to a one-year, $900,000 extension. The 27-year-old Metsa registered six points in 43 games in his first NHL season last season. (sep5)

4. According to Eric Francis of Sportsnet, Jonathan Huberdeau will not be available for the start of training camp. Flames GM Craig Conroy clarified that Huberdeau “did not have a setback”, but instead Huberdeau isn’t going to be ready for the start of camp when Conroy originally thought he would be.

Huberdeau underwent season-ending hip resurfacing surgery in March with the goal to eliminate pain. This surgery seems to be intended to correct a problem that could affect a player’s career. Francis mentioned that Patrick Kane and John Klingberg have recovered from the surgery, while Ryan Kesler and Nicklas Backstrom are recent examples of players that had to retire from the NHL shortly after the surgery.

Considering that Huberdeau’s production has plummeted since being traded to Calgary four years ago, I wonder how much this injury is responsible for his decline. Huberdeau is now 33 years old and has five years remaining on a contract with a $10.5 million cap hit. You’re probably best to stay away from him in your upcoming fantasy drafts. (sep5)

5. According to Joe Smith and Michael Russo of The Athletic, Filip Gustavsson is not expected to return to the Wild’s lineup until at least November. (The link is behind a paywall at The Athletic, so I cannot share it.) Gustavsson has been recovering from offseason hip surgery. His timetable for recovery was not known, so this news should not come as a major surprise.

Gustavsson appears to be falling in fantasy drafts as a result, as he was drafted in Round 13 in one 12-team mock draft I participated in and not at all in two other 12-team mock drafts. On the other hand, Jesper Wallstedt was drafted in Rounds 5-6 in all three of those mock drafts. Wallstedt is the Wild goalie to draft now, even in single-season leagues. However, Gustavsson could be an effective IR stash for when he is ready to return. It’s also worth mentioning that Gustavsson is on the first year of a five-year contract with a $6.8 million cap hit, which means he is not being paid to be a backup.

Some better news for Joel Eriksson Ek, who should be considered healthy ahead of training camp after skating hard for the past few days. Eriksson Ek missed Minnesota’s last five playoff games with a heel injury. (sep5)

6. The calendar flipped to September and all of a sudden we had actual NHL moves to discuss. First, the Rangers signed Eeli Tolvanen to a one year $1.5 Million contract, and then the New Jersey Devils traded for Luke Evangelista, sending a first and a second round pick back to Nashville.

The Tolvanen deal is likely going to be a steal for the Rangers, as Tolvanen was a middle-six winger with top-line underlying metrics on a Seattle team that just couldn’t create any offence with their complete lack of star power. He has been fairly consistent over the last number of years in pacing for around 40 points, but some additional ice time and better linemates could really unlock a new level for him. It will be tough to break onto the top line, but there is a second line wing spot that is wide open and his for the taking with a good training camp.

7. The next deal is a head scratcher if you’re a Predators fan (like me) as trading away a 24-year-old who just saw his production pop with a shift up to second line ice time, and was set to top 60 points this season is questionable even before we get into the details. Evangelista is being paid a bargain $3 Million this year, is still an RFA at the end of the deal, and just shattered his career high in points despite shooting only 6.8% last season. The picks that the Preds received also aren’t exactly as great as they sound, as the first is Colorado’s pick, which is top-10 protected, and the second will be around pick #50 at best. Also, both picks are 2028, and not 2027.

Evangelista is likely going to end up on one of the top two lines, either alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, or alongside Nico Hischier and Timo Meier. Either way, it’s bad news for one of Anthony Mantha or Dawson Mercer. This should be a big boost to Evangelista’s even strength numbers, especially if he ends up alongside Hughes instead of taking the heavier matchups with the Hischier line. However, he is unlikely to see time with the top power play unit, which would drastically drop his power play production, which was 17 PPPs last season. Knocking 10-12 points off of that will be tough to replace at even strength, making this year’s safe projection for Evangelista now somewhat similar to last year.

8. As mentioned above: earlier in the week, the Predators traded winger Luke Evangelista to the Devils for a conditional first-round pick and a second-round pick, both in 2028. You can read the Fantasy Take from Alex MacLean, while the Fantasy Guide has already been updated with Evangelista’s projected point total with the Devils.

When I heard about the trade, I didn’t seem as excited about it as a friend of mine who is a Devils fan is. But the fact that the Devils traded away a first-round pick (albeit likely late, as it belongs to Colorado) and a second-round pick for Evangelista seems to show that they really value the player. Evangelista enjoyed a quiet breakthrough season with 56 points after two previous seasons of 32 and 39 points.

Evangelista upgrades the Devils’ right side, as Dawson Mercer‘s progression has stalled a bit while veteran Anthony Mantha will attempt to replicate an injury-free season where he reached a career-high of 64 points. Out of a dull offensive environment in Nashville (perhaps even contract related), Evangelista has an opportunity to secure a spot on the Devils’ first line and top power play. He has definite sleeper appeal in single-season leagues. (sep5)

9. That said, I found it surprising that Eeli Tolvanen remained unsigned for as long as he did. So his signing with the Rangers (one year, $1.5 million) seemed to come out of nowhere. It seems that real-life teams don’t value Tolvanen as highly as multicategory fantasy teams do, as Tolvanen offers modest scoring along with high hit totals. Yet Tolvanen’s 43.2 CF% in 2025-26 was one of the lowest on the Kraken and was also the lowest of his career.

Tolvanen’s fantasy value is likely unaffected with the move from the West Coast to the East Coast. One way that his fantasy value could improve is via shooting percentage, where the career 12.0% shooting Tolvanen saw that number sink to 8.5% in 2025-26, resulting in only 12 goals. Better shooting luck could result in Tolvanen ranging between 15-20 goals, but keep in mind that he has surpassed 20 goals just once in his career.

Cliffy took care of the Fantasy Take for this one. Tolvanen’s projection is also now in the Fantasy Guide. Download the latest version, and you’ll see the change to any affected players in red. (sep5)

10. After going through the main bulk of a few mock drafts over the last couple weeks, I figured I would tidy it up by looking at some of the last picks in drafts, and who might be able to provide value there. 

Typically, as the end of a draft you’re filling out your last couple of bench spots, and maybe targeting a stat or two that you’re weak on. It’s important to keep track during the draft of what your team’s strengths and weaknesses are, as well as which positions you might want to grab at the end – because some disappear faster than others, even (and sometimes especially) past pick #200. 

Oftentimes I find that past pick #200 in a draft, there are a couple of goalies that I think could still have some value in the right circumstances, there are always a ton of forwards that feel like they could break out or put up useful numbers, but the defencemen available at this point are always sad, unless you’re only looking for Blks. For that reason, I usually try to fill out all of my active D slots at a minimum by around pick #150. For that reason, Alexander Nikishin and his upside, age, and cross-category coverage at pick #196 on Yahoo really stands out. He likely won’t last until that point on your draft day if your leaguemates are any good, but you can note it now and get him 30-40 picks before that for a steal. 

I’ll look at both Yahoo and Fantrax, as those are my two most-used platforms, and I think two of the most used overall as well. 

Let’s look at Yahoo first, as their ranking system usually means there are a few more bargains to be found. 

If you’re looking for multi-category options, then there is a variety still available to you, with Kiefer Sherwood, Darnell Nurse, and Will Cuylle all being players I rostered in parts of championship seasons last year. All three are excellent Hits contributors, without anchoring you down across the board in other categories. Nurse’s peripherals have been dropping a little over the last couple of years, but I do wonder if the move to San Jose puts him into much more of a defensive zone role than in Edmonton, which could lead to a lot more Hits and Blks than previous seasons (at the expense of his SOG and plus-minus totals). 

Seth Jarvis is also ranked at #318, which is still too low even factoring in that he is set to miss a month or two of the season. I do wonder if it has been priced in that he may need some time to get fully up to speed, however that’s not something I am hugely worried about from a full-effort player like Jarvis, especially considering he was still fantastic last year despite playing through the shoulder injury for most of the year. If he gets back to 100% healthy in the second half, you’re going to wish you spend your 13th round pick on him instead of someone like Matt Duchene or Shea Theodore. 

Kevin Fiala is ranked inside the top 100 on Fantrax, but is past #300 in the Yahoo rankings, mainly because of their automated setup which doesn’t account for previous season injuries. Fiala should be back to full health for the start of the season, and was a point per game player recently, before being derailed in a system that brought some incredible bad luck metrics his way for three years straight. In a new system this year under Peter Laviolette, expect Fiala to regain some of his previous scoring form. The guide has him around 60 points in 75 games, but I’m expecting a full-season pace of over 70 points. 

Now, over to Fantrax, most of their lower ranks are with the goaltenders, which seems to be purposeful as it tends to happen every year with them. A couple of the surprising names to find in the 200s were Brandon Bussi and Filip Gustavsson. 

Both have some question marks heading into the season, but both with solid last season, have mostly the same strong team returning in front of them, and have the more recent contractual commitment from the team. 

In Bussi’s case, Pyotr Kochetkov is his main competition, but Kochetkov has battled injury and inconsistency issues, to the point that he is no longer regarded as one of the higher-potential goalies around despite still only being 25 years old. Bussi is fresh off stepping in for the Canes to lead them to a Cup win, and that is going to go a long way from him holding onto his job (look at Jordan Binnington). He’s the better bet to get the larger volume of the starts for the Hurricanes this year, a very safe and productive gig.

In Gustavsson we have a goalie who went into 2025-26 having put up a top-five goalie season in two of the prior three years, and then played solidly except for the final quarter of the season where he was playing through a nagging injury. He is expected to be back to full health sometime in the fall (though after the start of the season). Jesper Wallstedt is very skilled and capable of stealing starts from Gustavsson through the end of this season, but Gus does have the contract, the track record, and the experience with larger volume workloads in his favour.  

One other player who I noticed is much lower in Fantrax is Anthony Cirelli. He has paced for 60 points in two straight seasons, and is still on the right side of 30 while being consistent as they come with his numbers across the board. If something were to happen to Brayden Point, Cirelli would suddenly be thrust into the center role on the top PP as well. There’s a lower ceiling here, but the high floor makes him a solid pick even before the #200 slot, let along where he ranked closer to 250. 

There were also a few names that I like, and noticed they were low in both Yahoo’s and Fantrax’s ranking lists. All three of Shane Pinto, Elias Lindholm, and Dmitry Voronkov are worth looking at as final picks in standard leagues, despite being ranked past 200 on both sites (and closer to 300 for Voronkov). 

Pinto is a big 25-year-old center who has steadily been improving for the Sens, and put up 16 points in his final 21 games last season. Lindholm meanwhile is on the wrong side of 30, but put up a rebound season in year two with the Bruins, though it’s masked due to him missing some time and the overall totals falling nearly exactly where they were the year prior in a dozen extra games. At 32 he could still very well hold that 60-point pace.

Voronkov is a bit of a different story, where we’re betting on a bit of a late breakout, as he just passed the 200-game threshold despite already being 25 years old. His production has largely been tied to his ice time, and there is room for him to move back up the lineup, especially as a tantalizing option with size alongside new acquisition Valeri Nichushkin, which would be a very difficult duo for opposing teams to contain close to the net. Voronkov also brings some high Hit and PIM totals, though last season’s drop in SOG volume is concerning if it keeps up. Worthy of a pick anytime close to or after the 200-mark. (sep2)

11. With the start of the NHL season getting closer and mock drafts already well underway, what better time to start focusing on some value picks that could pay off for you later in your drafts. We all know who the top players in the league are and where most GMs are likely to draft them, with some even reaching for them earlier than expected. But those players usually aren’t the ones that win you your fantasy league. Finding the players who can outperform their draft position is where things can really start to separate your team from the rest. So, in this week’s Ramblings, I thought I would start with the Atlantic Division, looking at one player from each team who could provide some sneaky fantasy value this season. Next week, we’ll move over to the Metro before making our way through the Western Conference which would lead us well into our fantasy drafts and near the start of the NHL season.

Let’s get right into it!

Boston Bruins – JJ Peterka

If you’re a Bruins fan, there’s plenty to like about bringing JJ Peterka to Boston, especially with the potential to have him skating alongside David Pastrnak on the top line. That alone gives Peterka some serious fantasy appeal, although his role on the top power-play unit is still something we need to see play out. His time in Utah was a bit of a disappointment, particularly with his power-play usage dropping to just 42% in Utah in comparison to his 63% in Buffalo. Boston should provide a much better opportunity for Peterka to get a chance to benefit from an elite linemate. He’s a dangerous shooter at 5v5, can create offense off the rush and has shown he can become more of a playmaker when playing with an elite finisher. His 41 assists in Buffalo showed he can adapt his game when playing alongside someone like Tage Thompson. If he locks down a top power-play role as well, his fantasy ceiling should increase. (aug31)

12. Buffalo Sabres – Zach Benson

Benson is starting to look like a player who could finally see his opportunity catch up to his talent. At just 21 years old, Benson still has plenty of room to grow. With Alex Tuch gone, there should be more room for him in Buffalo’s top six, and we already saw during the playoffs how much the Sabres have started to rely on him. He can score, create chances and help drive play, and after putting up 14 points in his final 14 games of the regular season, he carried that momentum into an impressive postseason. The power play is another area where I see some upside. Benson had only five power-play points last season, so an increased role there could give his numbers another boost. If he gets more even-strength minutes and a chance to play alongside Tage Thompson, things could add up quickly. (aug31)

13. Detroit Red Wings – Viktor Arvidsson

We’ve already seen what Viktor Arvidsson can do when he lands in the right situation, and Detroit could give him another opportunity to provide deep fantasy value. I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the 64-point pace he had in Boston, but the Red Wings need more offense at even strength, and Arvidsson brings a proven scorer who can create chances and finish them. There’s enough offensive talent around him to keep his production respectable. The good news is he doesn’t need to reach that level again to provide value. If Arvidsson can stay in Detroit’s top six and see regular power-play time, whether on the first or second unit, 45-50 points is a realistic target. As a deep draft target, that makes him a player worth identifying heading into your draft. (aug31)

14. Florida Panthers – Akira Schmid

Florida has several players who could provide fantasy value this season, with Carter Verhaeghe being one of the more obvious names if he locks down a top-six role. However, if we dig a little deeper, Akira Schmid is a player I’d keep an eye on. The appeal with Schmid has more to do with the opportunity behind Jacob Markstrom. We know Markstrom has dealt with injuries throughout his career, and while playing behind a strong Florida team should help, there’s always a chance he misses time. Schmid has already shown he can handle NHL action and could step into a larger role if called upon. That’s where the fantasy upside comes from. If Markstrom stays healthy, Schmid probably won’t have much value, but if he misses significant time, he could suddenly find himself playing regularly behind a team that should be competing near the top of the standings. (aug31)

15. Montreal Canadiens – Alex Newhook

Alex Newhook is an interesting option heading into the season, especially after what we saw from him in the playoffs. He led Montreal with seven goals and 10 points in 19 playoff games and looked comfortable creating offense, which could give him an opportunity to take on a bigger role with the Canadiens. We saw better production from Newhook when playing with Demidov last season, so continuing that chemistry could be important. If Newhook earns more responsibility there while establishing himself as a regular top-six option, his fantasy value could take another step forward. (aug31)

16. Ottawa Senators – William Eklund

This one may be a little more obvious, but William Eklund is a player I keep coming back to as a potential value pick. His situation in Ottawa is much more appealing than what he had in San Jose, especially after the Senators made him a key part of the Brady Tkachuk trade. That alone tells you how important they expect him to be moving forward. The biggest thing working in Eklund’s favor is the opportunity with Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson, he’ll have two talented offensive players around him and a much better situation than what he had in San Jose. Eklund already showed he can produce, putting up 53 points in 78 games last season while recording 38 assists. His playmaking ability could actually fit very well alongside Stützle and Batherson, and his shooting percentage being below his career average gives him another area where his offense could improve. (aug31)

17. Tampa Bay Lightning – Anthony Cirelli

We know that Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel and John Carlson will all come off the board much earlier, while Anthony Cirelli still gets to operate in the same offensive environment. The top power-play opportunities aren’t really there, so his even-strength role becomes the biggest factor to watch. Cirelli has been a staple in the top-six, with the likes of players I mentioned above, all of which work well. Cirelli has paced for around 60 points in each of the last two seasons, although injuries have prevented him from reaching that total. His ice time has also dropped year-over-year and his 18.4% S% last season is another number worth watching, as it was above his career norm. Even with those concerns his consistent linemates in the top-six are among the best the league, that alone should be enough. (aug31)

18. Toronto Maple Leafs – Easton Cowan

I would be willing to take a late-round chance on Easton Cowan because the situation in Toronto could give him a real opportunity to produce offensively. Cowan played 66 games last season and nearly 25% of his ice time came alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. The big question is whether he can lock down a top-six role, with Jack Roslovic likely being his biggest competition on the right side. Roslovic could have the edge to start the season, but he has never been more than a 45-point player in his career. The top-six spot is far from guaranteed, but Toronto clearly views Cowan as someone who could eventually fill that role, and they should give him every opportunity to prove he belongs there. (aug31)

19. We have reached September and the NHL regular season starts in four weeks. Rookie camps start next week, training camps shortly after that, and then we’re ready to rock for an 84-game campaign. Fantasy hockey draft season is truly here. It is time to look ahead to the season and start our fantasy valuations. I have mostly finished my personal projections – I need to add empty net situations and rookies to my data – but we are 95% of the way there. It is a good time to start sifting through player values. 

I created an app to compare player fantasy values to replacement level talents at their position, and on a per-game basis. We are using Goals, Assists, Shots, Blocks, Hits, and Power Play Points for our measures. We will divide between forwards and defencemen, each player is projected for 84 games, and then those projections are compared to the replacement-level output last season at their position.  

For replacement level, I am using 12-team leagues that have 11 forwards, 6 defencemen, and 3 goalies per roster. That means 132 forwards and 60 defencemen are selected. I found the 132^nd-ranked fantasy forward from last year and averaged each stat for the 10 forwards above and below them, then I found the 60^th-ranked defenceman from last year and averaged each stat for the five defencemen above and below them. That gives us our ‘replacement’ values that we are using for comparing 2026-27 projections.  

Comparison 1:

Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche) vs. Kirill Kaprizov (Minnesota Wild)

This comparison is just to show how much of a gap there is between the truly super-elite players and even a top 10 pick. Judging by most average draft positions I’ve seen so far, MacKinnon is the expected top pick and Kaprizov is somewhere between the 7^th and 10^th pick. Both are first rounders, but the true value gap between them is much larger than the title of ‘first-round pick’ indicates:

Despite both being top 10 picks, the per-game fantasy value gap between MacKinnon and Kaprizov is nearly 68%. In my projections, the per-game fantasy value gap between MacKinnon and Kaprizov is about the same as between Kaprizov and Adam Fantilli, and my projections value Fantilli as a 7^th round pick.

Even if I were to move down the draft board and use Nikita Kucherov instead of MacKinnon, his expected per-game fantasy value surplus over Kaprizov is about 37%. That gap is about the same as between Kaprizov and a top 30 forward. That doesn’t tell the whole story because if someone is drafting 1^st overall, then they get the 24^th pick, and it’s about whether the 1^st and 24^th picks are better than, say, the 12^th and 13^th picks. (For posterity, my projections still say that having 1^st and 24^th is better than 12^th and 13^th, but the combined value gap shrinks considerably to about 10%). All the same, fantasy managers have to look at the top of the draft the same way NHL General Managers look at the Entry Draft: picking in the top 3 is nowhere near the same as picking in the 8-10 range.

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20. In Tuesday’s Ramblings (above), I started going over my fantasy hockey projections for the 2026-27 season. Those Ramblings covered some players comparisons that stood out for one reason or another, like Kiefer Sherwood vs. Jesper Bratt, William Eklund vs. Andrei Svechnikov, and Luke Hughes vs. Brandt Clarke. Go check that out to get an overview on comparing players who have different fantasy strengths.

Today, let’s go through some more projections but look for some values by ADP. We will use ADP data from Fantrax.

As a quick refresher, my projections are based on value above replacement level at that player’s position. ‘Replacement level’ is simply the approximate value of top waiver-wire options in a 12-team league with 11 forwards and 6 defencemen rostered. These projections are for goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points, and the focus for today will be on forwards; we will get to defencemen tomorrow. All forwards are being lumped into an ‘F’ position for now – there will be a separation by the forward positions in a future Ramblings. Each player is projected for 84 games.

The ‘Fantrax ADP’ is the player’s rank among forwards on that site, and ‘My Rank’ is where I have that player situated.

Sebastian Aho (Carolina Hurricanes)

Fantrax ADP: 41

My Rank: 24

Fantasy hockey can be a funny game. For a few years, I have generally been avoiding drafting Aho, believing him to be over-valued. It has generally worked well as using this format, his best season was 2023-24, and he was a fringe top 30 fantasy forward that year. That is why it was surprising to see him sneaking inside the top 25 forwards in my ranks, landing in range of Tim Stutzle:

When I dug into why this was the case, there were two reasons: an expected uptick in his shot volume (small, but meaningful), and a projection of 31 power-play points in 84 outings. That might seem like a lot of PP points, but he had 27 in 79 games last season and 32 in 78 games back in 2023-24. It is well within reach, especially with how well the Hurricanes performed after switching to the setup where Jordan Staal was taking faceoffs.

Carolina will be missing Seth Jarvis to start the season, but the top line has remained stellar without him in the past, and it isn’t as if Nikolaj Ehlers is some slouch.

The concern is the uptick in shots on goal. It basically comes down to expecting the team to generate a bit more shot volume than they did last season, but if any team can do it, it’s Carolina. Even if his shot volume was closer to last season, he’d still be ranked inside my top 35 forwards, and a solid value at his Fantrax ADP. 

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21. Today, we’ll look at more ADP values but this time switching our focus to defencemen.

Mikhail Sergachev (Utah Mammoth)

Fantrax Rank: 19

My Rank: 11

In this kind of format last season, Sergachev wound up as the 8^th overall defenceman. In my projections, he’s listed as the 11^th overall defenceman, though it should be mentioned there’s a noticeable gap between him and the guy in 10^th place, Adam Fox:

The per-game fantasy value gap is about 11%, which is larger than my gap between the 7^th overall blue liner and Fox. So, yes, Sergachev is listed as a top 12 defenceman in a 12-team league, and is passable as a fantasy manager’s top rearguard, but there is a noticeable difference between him and a top 10 option, and a substantial one between Sergachev and the top 5 (nearly 45%).

A big reason for Sergachev’s fantasy value stabilizing is expecting an improvement on his hit total compared to what he managed in 2025-26. Back in May, I wrote how peripheral rates have been declining for defencemen, but Sergachev’s drop in hits per 60 minutes in 2025-26 was sizeable, dropping 36% against a league average of 9%. A rebound in that hit rate, combined with some marginal improvements in his shots and blocks, should help balance any declines elsewhere – I do have him projected for three fewer points.  

It should be noted how consistent Sergachev has been lately. In the last three seasons where he’s played at least 70 games, his 84-game pace has been between 58 and 68 points in each of them. Also, other than that injured 2023-24 campaign, he has not missed more than five games in any of his last six seasons. Not only is he projecting well, but he stays on the ice and always produces, too. 

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Have a good week, folks!

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