Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Michael)

I’m in a 12 team, keep 5, H2H league. The categories are G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK for skaters and W, GAA, SV%, and SHO for goalies. Starting line-ups are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2UT, 2G, 3 bench, 3 IR+.

My question is about my keeper situation for next year, specifically regarding Trevor Zegras. My keeper locks are Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar, Jack Hughes, and Juuse Saros. I also have, as options in addition to Zegras, Brad Marchand, Dougie Hamilton, John Carlson, and Kris Letang. I might be able to trade one or two of them, but that's far from a lock. 

So my question is, considering I won the league last year and as I write this am in the Finals, do I play it safe and not keep Zegras, or roll the dice and gamble that he – and the Ducks – connect the dots?

With a total of 60 players being kept, but the numbers of keepers being greater than a third of a team's starting line-up, that makes it so keepers need to be proven producers, as there is less room to be able to draft one's way into a championship. That being said, with you poised to win a 12-team league for the second season in a row, that speaks both to your ability to keep the right players but also draft well. It also says a lot about your instincts.

I can understand the temptation to keep Zegras, who'll be hitting his 200-game breakout threshold next season. But my concern is his team, which, despite Zegras and those like Troy Terry having another year under their belts, did worse offensively this season than last. Is some of that in furtherance of an effort to tank hard for Bedard? Maybe, as Zegras' TOI, both overall and on the PP, dropped with each passing quarter, which makes no sense unless it's part of a plan to try and land Bedard.

Either way, the net result is Zegras' stats don't look great, making it so, to me, he's more of a redraft candidate, especially given the options you have for defensemen. If I'm in your shoes, I'm keeping one of Hamilton, Carlson or Letang over Zegras. If you think others in your league would covet Zegras and the potential to keep him, then I'd let it be known that you'd move him plus the d-man of the other GM's choosing, in exchange for a forward the likes of J.T. Miller, who's huge in this format, or Elias Pettersson, or perhaps Tim Stutzle, who also is no slouch in multicat. My guess though is you won't get any takers, in which case I'd probably go with Hamilton as the fifth keeper, as while only once has he been able to put together two elite seasons in a row, the Devils are a team on the rise and you'd get PP stacking with him and Hughes. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Mike)

I'm in a 12 team keeper with rosters of 20 majors plus 5 minors (i.e., <164 NHL GP), with 2 IR spots. We must drop ten at the end of every season. Categories are G, A, +/-, PPP, PIM, SHP, SOG, SV(0.5), W(2), S0(4). Starting line-ups are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4F, 4D, 3G.

I'm poised to rack up my fourth straight win this season, but that is leaving me with a "first world problem" of too many solid players to be able to find ten to drop. This is my roster, with forward positional eligibility denoted in parentheses:

F – Connor McDavid (C), Auston Matthews (C), Steven Stamkos (C, LW), Nathan Mackinnon (C), Sebastian Aho (C, LW), J.T. Miller (C, LW, RW), Zach Hyman (RW), Mats Zuccarello (RW), Alex Tuch (RW), Dylan Strome (C, RW), Vincent Trocheck (C), Victor Arvidsson (LW, RW)

D – Aaron Eckblad, Brandon Montour, Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard

G – Vitek Vanecek, Cam Talbot, Filip Gustavsson, Ville Husso

Minors Eligible

F – Peyton Krebs (C, LW), Mattias Maccelli (LW)

D – Kaiden Guhle, J.J. Moser

G – Akira Schmid

I know I'm heavy at center, but I feel that gives me an advantage come draft time as they tend to go earliest. I drafted well with my goalies this year, getting lucky with Gustavsson and Husso (I kept Vanecek from the season before). I focus on prospects who can have more of an immediate impact rather than playing the long game. This may mean I will have to blow my team up at some point; but for now, it is keeping me in the money so to speak.

The six "easy" drops I see are Strome, Arvidsson, Talbot, Tuch, Zuccarello, and Trocheck. Can you help me find four more? What do I do for defenseman and goalies? Montour had a monster season and outplayed Ekblad. But having both gave me a nice stack, likewise Miller and Hughes, and McDavid, Hyman, and Bouchard (finally) for the later half of the season. I went heavy on the Oilers as they put up on average over 4 goals a game so anyone playing with McDavid or Draisaitl is getting me points. As for goalies, I can see Gustavvson taking over as a #1 depending on playoff performance, Husso is Detroit's locked in starter, and it looks like Vanecek is slowly being cemented as a #1 as well.

I think you have a simpler task at hand than it might seem. That's because your team looks poised to continue the dynasty you've already begun; and when you have a proven winner, you don't break up the band. If I'm you, I'm dropping every one of your minors guys, as none are tier 1 prospects and you have too many better options. And when you're winning and posed to continue doing so, you need to mortgage the future to continue the present. It'd be one thing if this team had one or at best two more seasons to contend; but with its foundation it should be the favorite for several more seasons to come.

So dropping your prospects gives you half your needed non-keeps; what about the rest? I agree that Strome, Arvidsson, Trocheck and Talbot are drops. And if indeed you were to drop two more, I'd likely go with Tuch and Zucc too. But what I think what you need to do instead is move some of your talent via a trade. The guy who's first on my list to trade is Hyman. If this was his first season in Edmonton then I might be less skeptical; however, he already had a 2022-23 campaign where he fared only as well as he did back in his Toronto days. I also feel he benefitted from Evander Kane being out of the line-up for a long stretch, and Kane should be back in his usual form come next season. I'd also look to trade Tuch, who is both injury prone and turns 27 in June. I fear that it's only a matter of time before Tuch gets hurt and one or the many young Sabre wings will step into his spot and find a permanent home there. And then I'd pick one of Stamkos and Zuccarello to move, as although both seems like ageless wonders, father time will catch up to them sooner rather than later.

What you do is trade Hyman, Tuch, and either Stamkos or Zuccarello (I'd move Zuccarello), and get in return two droppable guys plus a stud d-man or goalie, probably a goalie, as 3G means you will need to have more depth than what you have now, with none of those being true studs. I'd try to land someone like Ilya Sorokin, who I covered in detail in my previous mailbag, or Juuse Saros, either of which will be rock solid for you in net.

There is a potential flaw in this plan though, which is that your opponents know full well how dominant your team has been and might not want to help you get better. Still, Hyman, Tuch and Zuccarello are good enough that you should find a GM who can't resist the prospect of getting better even if in doing so they make your life easier. If somehow you can't make any trades, which I find unlikely, then as noted above my other two drops would be Zuccarello and Tuch as you had envisioned. Good luck, although I'm not sure you'll need it!

Question #3 (from Todd)

I think all of us were shocked at the regular season success of the Kraken, who had an amazing eight forwards average better than a point per every other game despite none of them taking the ice for even 18:00 per contest, this on the heels of the Blues in 2021-22, who had nine forwards tally 49+ points and only one of them averaged over 19:00 per game. But St. Louis had four point-per game scorers, the top scorer on Seattle didn't even best 70 points. Do you think more teams will start to emulate this three-line, balanced ice time approach?

This is an astute observation and interesting question. What we often lose sight of while we're engrossed in fantasy hockey is that these are teams trying to do what they can to win. Yes, certain players are focused on their stats, as for some it's just in their DNA while with others it's because they're on the cusp of a new deal. But if teams make a conscientious decision to spread around their offense, that can and will affect your fantasy squads. And there have been instances where the philosophy of a team ends up implemented throughout the NHL. If you're as old as I am, you can remember, for example, the left-wing lock, which was widely implemented for several seasons. Moreover, the defense first mentality of Barry Trotz's teams was mimicked by some as well.

Do I think other teams will adopt a balanced offensive system? My gut says not many. First, most have players getting paid a certain amount such that if they weren't on the ice a lot the player would be none too pleased, nor would be the brass and/or fans if the team didn't dominate. Also, I don't think it builds for success in the playoffs, where it's a win or go home mentality and star forwards routinely are played 21:00+ per night. Having a balanced attack is fine for the grind of a season; however, when everything is on the line you want to be able to lean on top tier guys and have them used to you doing so.

Still, I could see some teams adopting this approach next season due to the make-up of their rosters. Two examples that come to mind are LA and Nashville, which means those might be teams where you may find more players scoring at a 50+ point rate, but few if any above 70. I'm guessing Seattle will be at it again too. Be sure to have this in the back of your mind when making keeper decisions and come draft day, as guys on these teams might make good depth additions to your squads but you might want to ignore them early in your drafts, focusing instead on teams who give star ice time treatment to at least some of their players. I'd be remiss if I didn't give the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide a plug, as although it's still months away from release, my Outliers piece will cover teams and what their ice time philosophies were for 2022-23 and thus might again be for 2023-24. Good question!

Question #4 (from Chuck)

Going back to 2010-11, and including 2022-23, there've been 99 instances of defensemen playing in 41+ games in a season while scoring at a 60+ point pace. Of those, 16 came in 2022-23 alone, and just under half (i.e., 48) occurred in just the last three seasons. As we've seen for 2022-23, some of the names on the list were not considered elite upon entering this season. Why is this happening all of the sudden, and can it continue, especially in terms of the "came from nowhere" guys?

First off, stick tap for digging up some great information. It feels like I'm reading something that I wrote myself, and in a good way. As for the data, it's not a surprise to me to see that there have indeed been more of these performances of late; however, exactly how many as compared to prior seasons for sure is eye opening.

First and foremost, what I believe is definitely a major factor is nearly all teams having switched to using just one rearguard on the PP, as that makes it easier for that lone d-man to amass points. I also think that teams saw what was occurring with the likes of Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Adam Fox, to name just a few, and realized that they can try to tap into their blueline talent to put up big numbers.

Still though, seeing the likes of Vince Dunn, Brandon Montour, Josh Morrissey, and Mike Matheson, none of whom ever topped even 37 points in a prior season, all of the sudden explode for huge numbers, makes one wonder if their emergences are legit. In the case of all of them, it was a function of them being given the keys to the kingdom so to speak, as with the exception of Aaron Ekblad, who was hurt and underperformed, none of the four had major hurdles to being able to command top PP time and prime ES minutes as well. With Dunn and Matheson, one can also point to their teams not being very high scoring at the forward position, and thus having even more of a need for blueline offense. But that doesn't explain either Montour or Morrissey, both of whom plays for teams with several prolific scorers at the forward position.

Looking more closely at the 99, not many who are on the list appear just once. A lot of that is a function of the fact that earlier in the past decade only a select few rearguards were able to produce at this high of a rate. Still, with 16 names on the list for 2022-23 alone, when in all but one previous season the high was 11, that does sound alarm bells suggesting some on the list for this season will indeed be one and done.

Who do I think are most at risk of seeing their numbers drop? At the top of the list no question is Montour, due to his lack of any semblance of these numbers in the past plus the looming presence of Aaron Ekblad and lots of talented forward scorers. Maybe just a rung or two below him is Morrissey, as although like Montour this breakout aligned with his 400-game breakout threshold, Morrissey's shooting percentage was quite high and there seems to be too much forward talent on Winnipeg for a rearguard to be able to continue to syphon away so many points.

Who could rise to join the list in 2023-24 as first timers? I like the odds for Moritz Seider, who'll have his sophomore slump behind him and is "the guy" when it comes to Red Wing blueline offense now that Filip Hronek is in Vancouver. A longshot, but still someone with potential, is Sean Durzi, who seems to have the talent but just needs to do to Drew Doughty what Mikhail Sergachev did this season to Victor Hedman in Tampa Bay. Lastly there's Evan Bouchard, who'll have a full season without Tyson Barrie on an Oiler team that should be no less potent next season. Good question!

Question #5 (from Levi)

I'm in a 12 team, H2H league with 19 player rosters (2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1F, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G, 5 Bench, 2 IR+) and categories of G, A, +/-, PPP, PIM, SOG, Hits, W, SV, SV%, and GAA. I won my regular season but got bounced in round one of the playoffs. The keeper rules are you keep a player – forever – in the round he was originally drafted, unless he was a free agent or waiver pick-up, in which case he's kept in round 15, unless you already have a 15th round keeper, in which case he becomes a 16th rounder, unless you have a keeper there….and so on. 

If I kept the same players as I did going into this season, that would mean Cale Makar in round 12, Kirill Kaprizov in round 15, Igor Shesterkin in round 16, Andrei Svechnikov in round 17, and Jack Eichel in round 18. Other choices though, if I wanted to try to build more for the future, are Alexis Lafreniere, Matty Beniers, Trevor Zegras, Wyatt Johnston, Quinton Byfield, Pyotr Kochetkov, as well as Valeri Nichushkin. All would be 15th rounders (or later if I kept some of my other guys). Each one of these I was able to get off waivers or via free agency during the season.

Part of me wonders if one or more of the youngsters might be good enough, especially given their down the road potential, to unseat Svech or Eichel, as Eichel didn't get to the gear I hoped for, and Svech's scoring – as you predicted – hasn't progressed. Or am I overthinking this?

You are, indeed, overthinking things. One question to ask yourself is this – have other teams’ keepers changed to an extent I’d need to rethink mine? My guess is no given that there are only five per team, making it so keepers are important but shrewd drafting is as much if not more so; and you already demonstrated you’re able to do that well, as you were the top regular season team.

I’d be inclined to stick with the five you kept last season, as I don’t foresee any of them doing any worse. In fact, one could argue all five are candidates to see their numbers improve as compared to 2022-23. Maybe Svech continues to see his scoring stuck in neutral and Eichel’s former explosiveness is no longer realistic after his health issues or the team for which he plays, or a combination of both. But they were good enough this season and I don’t see a universe in which either one takes a step back for 2023-24, whereas improvement, small or otherwise, is more viable.

As for the youngsters, my take is if you were able to obtain them via free agency or waivers, then how could they pass muster as keepers? Or to put it another way, if they were keeper material, would their owners have parted with them or would someone else not have gone ahead and picked them up instead of you, the top team?

Perhaps it’s a case of other teams having an excess of keepable guys, which would not be surprising given that only five can be kept per team and there are rosters of 19. But where you have five guys who helped lead you to a regular season title and, as noted, all arguably performed as expected or, in at least some cases, underperformed, I’m not inclined to push any of them aside for any of those who are in the other group, especially since not keeping them only means you aren’t guaranteed to have them going into 2023-24. They can, of course, be drafted, albeit just as easily by the other 11 teams as by yours.

Perhaps there is some universe in which one of them goes so bananas in the playoffs or Eichel's old wounds flare up such that maybe you reconsider. But otherwise I think the five you kept for 2022-23 should be the same five you keep for 2023-24. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Craig)

I know that many of those who do well in the AHL don't enjoy similar success in the NHL, if they even get a fair chance to make an impact. Are there any top AHL scorers in whom you have faith to not only be in the NHL in 2023-24 but play well enough to be owned in at least deeper leagues? Or I guess what I'm saying is, could there be a Tommy Novak 2.0 in 2023-24?

This reminds me of a question I received around this time last year asking me who I thought had a chance to be the next Tanner Jeannot. At the time I said I didn't see a high likelihood of anyone coming close to duplicating what Jeannot did. Guess what – no one jumps out as Novak 2.0 when I look at those who were high scorers in the AHL, either overall or on a point per game basis for 2022-23, and are not young prospect. For starters, most of the league leaders are players who are on the other side of 30, so we should essentially rule them out. I'd have more hope for Alex Barre-Boulet and Trey Fix-Wolansky if they weren't undersized and did better when given brief chances in the NHL. Heck, even league scoring champ Michael Carcone was only able to log nine games for the Coyotes, who certainly didn't have an issue of top much top tier talent already clogging their roster.

Anthony Richard, who finished in the top-ten, was brought up to the Habs late in the season and played decent. He might get a chance to make the club next season, ala Novak, as if there was ever a team where it might happen for him, it could be the 2023-24 Habs. Kole Lind should be in the NHL; but with the Kraken suddenly deep enough at forward that even Daniel Sprong couldn't get 12:00 per game, chances are there is no room for him. If he doesn't get re-signed though, he could latch on somewhere that would give him an opportunity to translate his AHL success to the NHL.

I also feel that maybe not in 2023-24 but somewhere down the line Egor Sokolov will be given a shot to make a mark in the NHL, given his combo of scoring and size. Valtteri Puustinen also is undersized but only turns 24 in June, making it so he has a realistic chance to do something if not in 2023-24 then down the road. There is a temptation to say Emil Bemstrom; however, even if Columbus doesn't land Connor Bedard, let's not forget that Alexander Texier is likely to return, making it so Bemstrom, who failed to stick in the NHL but tore up the AHL, likely wouldn't make major strides. Similar to Bemstrom, Jakob Pelletier produced well yet again at the AHL level, but this time got a decent look with the Flames yet failed to stand out. He'll likely be ticketed back to the minors again and will need to make more of his next chance with Calgary, or it could be his last.

Two guys who stand a better chance than those already mentioned of having seen the last of the AHL given how they did once at the NHL level are Phillip Tomasino and Alex Belzile. I'm not sure either one will be better than a 40- to 50-point player, if even that, but it could happen, especially for Tomasino, who, like Novak, was able to strut his stuff at the end of the season amidst the injuries to several Preds forwards. Belzile didn't look out of place among NHL talent either.

If I had to pin my "hopes" on anyone, it'd be Lukas Reichel and Scott Perunovich. At just 20, Reichel posted 15 points in 23 games for the Hawks and just under point per game production in the AHL. Chicago shouldn't have an excuse to keep him out of the NHL next season, and with the big club he could make his mark. It was also very encouraging to see Perunovich put up solid AHL numbers after his return from injury. With the Blues having Torey Krug and Justin Faulk as their top blueline options, the opportunity will be there for Perunovich to walk in next season and have immediate impact. 

Then there's the curious case of Marco Rossi, who laid an egg in the NHL but produced well at the AHL level. As I've said many times in my columns, I remain skeptical that, as an undersized center, Rossi can thrive in the NHL, especially on the Wild. It would be one thing if Kirill Kaprizov wasn't already stapled to the diminutive Mats Zuccarello; but with those two likely to be inseparable, the Wild would be leaving their franchise player too exposed if they added the 5'9'' Rossi to the line. At best he'd play alongside Matt Boldy; however, Joel Eriksson-Ek just keeps getting better and better by the season, making it so it would be difficult to displace him from the top six. Still lurking still are Sam Steel, Ryan Hartman, and Frederick Gaudreau, one of whom likely will be on the Kaprizov line but the other two will be angling for a top nine center spot. Rossi is a risk/reward player, but someone who I personally wouldn't touch.

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.