Fantasy Take: Rangers Hire Laviolette
Michael Clifford
2023-06-13
Coaching vacancies were dwindling and though there were rumours of Peter Laviolette being the new bench boss for the New York Rangers, until things like that are announced, rumours are exactly that. That vacancy came to an end on Tuesday as the Rangers announced Laviolette will be the head coach for the 2023-24 season, even if the official introductory press conference isn't for another week:
Let's talk about what this means.
The Rangers were an excellent regular season team the last two years under Gerard Gallant. They had the fifth-highest points percentage, trailing only Boston, Carolina, Colorado, and Toronto. A first-round exit these playoffs, though, may have hastened Gallant's exit.
One thing Gallant did in New York, which was an extension of his Vegas days, was focus on seam passes and playing off the rush. Here is where Vegas generated their offence in their first season under Gallant (red areas are where they shot more than the league average, blue is less, both from HockeyViz):
And here is his last season with the Rangers:
The blue in the slot with red on the sides, and just watching Rangers games, indicates that the seam-pass play was a focus. This can work extremely well because it sets up half-open-net shots, but it requires precision and coordination, and one fumble messes up the whole process.
This is where Laviolette comes into play because he's not the same type of coach. Where the 2022-23 Rangers finished eighth in the league in shots off the rush per minute at 5-on-5, the 2022-23 Washington Capitals, coached by Laviolette, finished 19th. Before chalking that up to a poor season from the Caps where key injuries were incurred, the 2021-22 Washington Capitals were below average in shots off the rush per minute as well:
The Rangers were slightly worse but clearly improved a lot in that manner a year later (data from Corey Sznajder).
The other difference between Laviolette and Gallant was Gallant didn't seem to encourage his teams to go into a defensive shell with the lead – again from HockeyViz – but Laviolette did. Over the last two seasons, the Rangers were 20th and 19th in first period and second-period goals, respectively, but fourth in third-period goals. Nashville, meanwhile, was 11th in goals in the first period but 25th and 27th in the second and third periods, respectively Without commenting on the defensive tactic, itself, that seems as if it would limit the production, and thus the fantasy upside, of their top players. Additional ice time could mitigate things, but that's TBD.
As for ice time, not much should change for the top guys. Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad should still flirt with 20 minutes, and Laviolette is clearly not shy about focusing on a top PP unit. What the unit looks like, exactly, remains to be seen, but as far as deployment goes, there shouldn't be a big change.
The change that should come is in playstyle. If Laviolette tries to get the Rangers to operate the way the Capitals did, it revamps their offence entirely. That can be a lot to ask from a team that is expected to contend for a Stanley Cup, whether realistic or not. We will have to see how, and what, he implements in September.
If there is one immediate area of fantasy concern, it’s for the Kid Line. They haven't been bad, and not nearly as bad as some might perceive, but they should be consistent difference-makers, not infrequently-impactful players. Their fantasy values are of concern because few rookies made any sort of impact for the Caps in any of Laviolette's three years; Aliaksei Protas, Connor McMichael, and Hendrix Lapierre combined for 172 games in the three seasons, and over half of them are from Protas alone. Whether they belonged or not, this team got battered by injuries and still relied on players like Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller, and Conor Sheary over any younger options. That might not be a great sign for the Kid Line.
Overall, there should be concerns for fantasy owners. Trying to get the team to play a more physical, forechecking style may work for some players but if it doesn't work for everyone, mainly their stars, it could be a lot of wasted effort. Time will tell, but this seems like a slight downgrade fantasy-wise, especially for the Kids, but nothing that should lead to wholesale fantasy value updates.