Ramblings: More Points-Per-Game Options for Next Season’s Drafts (Jun 18)

Ian Gooding

2023-06-18

Yesterday I listed a few players who may fall down 2023-24 preseason draft rankings because they played fewer than 70 games last season. The players I had listed all finished above the point-per-game mark. Today I'll provide six more players who could fall farther than they should for the same reason, although they finished under a point per game. Next season's drafts are still about three months away, but you'll still want to keep these names in the back of your mind.

Nick Schmaltz

Schmaltz has posted nearly identical statlines over the past two seasons, playing 63 games both seasons and finishing with 36 assists both seasons as well. Posting 59 and 58 points both seasons means that he has landed above 0.9 points per game for the last two seasons. That's a big jump from the 0.6-0.7 points per game that he averaged in his previous four seasons. Even if he's been an injury risk, Schmaltz has been consistent in playing for a team that boasts little else offensively beyond Clayton Keller.

Playing for the Coyotes means that the possibility of being traded is always fairly high. With that comes a double-edged sword. Would he be a better player with more talented options around him, or would he lose icetime and opportunity playing for a better team? We'll have to wait and see whether Schmaltz stays in Arizona next season, but for now he's a potentially sneaky late-round option who could be very productive.

Patrik Laine

Maybe you swore you would never draft Laine again after he sputtered through the COVID-shortened season (24 points in 46 games). However, over his two full seasons in Columbus, the remarkably inconsistent Laine has been been… consistent? Laine has recorded 56 and 52 points over each of the past two seasons, but he has been held to 56 and 55 games respectively. Expand that to a full season and Laine has scored at an 80-point pace, including a 35-goal average pace. That's not bad, although Dobber may have to re-evaluate Laine's absence from the Band-Aid Boy list.

Laine's latest injury – a tricep strain – ended his season in March. As of early May, he still hadn't fully recovered and was unable to play in the World Championship. I would assume he should be ready for training camp, at which time I may add him back to the Top 100 Roto Rankings.

Mathew Barzal

Barzal provided his usual per-game contributions in 2022-23, but he just did so while playing fewer games. He has ranged between 0.8-0.9 points per game over the past four seasons – a total that is mainly assist-heavy. In fact, Barzal has not reached 20 goals since his rookie season of 2017-18. He doesn't provide a high shot total either, as he has never reached 200 shots in his career.

The addition of Bo Horvat might help both players, though. For much of his time with the Isles, Barzal has not had a top-tier goal scorer on his line. During the brief time they played together before Barzal's injury, Barzal recorded eight points in seven games. Horvat scored three goals over that span, but he scored just four goals in 23 games without Barzal after that. Having just signed Horvat to a long-term extension, the Islanders will likely try Horvat with Barzal on their top line. That should keep Barzal near the point-per-game mark while helping Horvat rebound from a rough finish to the regular season.  

Cole Caufield

This may sound hard to believe, but after three NHL seasons Caufield's career high in points is 43. I had drafted Caufield in a non-keeper league this past season hoping for more, but unfortunately shoulder surgery ended his season early. He finished the 2022-23 season with a career-best 0.78 PTS/GP from recording 36 points in 46 games. I'll say this early: Caufield should be a great sleeper pick again in single-season drafts in 2023-24.

A couple of interesting observation regarding Caufield's point total. First, 26 of his 36 points were goals. Call him Goal Caufield if you like, but over his NHL career he has 53 goals compared to just 31 assists. Also, is it possible that Caufield's assist rate could decline? Eight of Caufield's ten assists were secondary assists. In other words, just two primary assists in 46 games. It's clear that Caufield likes to shoot the puck, as he has averaged just over three shots per game. Expect him to crack 30 goals and 200 shots over a full season.

Andre Burakovsky

Having been out of the lineup since early February, Burakovsky was hardly mentioned during the Kraken's surprising playoff run. Yet only Jared McCann had a higher point-per-game average among Seattle players than Burakovsky, who finished with a similar point total to Caufield with 39 points in 49 games.

Don't expect Burakovsky to fade out of the picture, though. He has four more years on the free agent contract that he signed with Seattle for $5.5 million per season, and no Kraken skater has either a higher cap hit or term. Over the last four seasons, he has consistently averaged between 0.76 and 0.83 points per game, which over a full season range between 63 and 68 points per game. Some decent players finished with 0.8 points per game in 2022-23, including Alex DeBrincat, Nick Suzuki, Elias Lindholm, and Tomas Hertl.  

Mike Matheson

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Among defensemen that played at least 40 games, Matheson finished in the top 20 in points per game (0.71 PTS/GP). He managed to fill a void where the Habs desperately needed one, leading all of their defensemen in points (34), power-play points (9), icetime per game (24:27), shots (126), and plus-minus (+7). He did so in spite of playing in just 48 games and not making his season debut until mid-November. The icetime average is particularly noticeable, as it was the highest average of his career and nearly six minutes higher than his total in Pittsburgh the previous season.

The big question is whether it is sustainable for next season. That may depend on other options either in the system or that Montreal may acquire in the offseason. Kaiden Guhle seems like the most serious threat to take power-play time away from Matheson, with top prospect Lane Hutson playing at least one more season in college. Matheson's 1.7 PTS/60 in 2022-23 is slightly higher than expected, but that is also offset by a lower-than-expected 30.8 secondary assist percentage. At this point, Matheson is definitely an option in 12-team leagues that roster four defensemen.

Don't forget to purchase your 2023 Fantasy Prospects Report at the Dobber Sports store. Better yet, for another $2 you can get this summer's Fantasy Hockey Guide and Draft List – just by picking up the Keeper League Fantasy Pack instead!

Saturday was a day in which there was absolutely no fantasy-relevant news. That will probably change every day over the next few weeks, as teams ramp up their offseason activity. So I'll leave you with sights of the Stanley Cup parade down the Strip in Vegas.

That video clip gave me vibes of this commercial from a few years ago.

Imagine if an unknowing hotel employee mistook the Stanley Cup for a hallway flower pot. That could make for quite the story for a trophy that's had plenty of them.  

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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