Eastern Edge: Buying or Selling on Free Agent Signings in Bunting, Domi, and Pacioretty

Brennan Des

2023-07-04

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll run through some free agent signings, and I'll decide whether or not (cop or drop) I'd target them in upcoming fantasy drafts for one-year leagues.

Michael Bunting – Carolina Hurricanes – Cop

So much of fantasy hockey value is based on public perception. The way I see it, Bunting has moved from a high-profile spot in Toronto to a more low-key one in Carolina. Leaving one of the league's most popular markets with some of the league's most popular players will likely result in less attention on Bunting during the 2023-2024 campaign. I imagine much of his success in Toronto will be attributed to the fact that he often shared the ice with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The Hurricanes might not have the same star power, but there's plenty of offensive talent within Carolina's top-six. Given the size of his contract, I imagine Bunting will see more ice time in Toronto as the Canes try to mazimize the return on their investment. Now, I'm not saying to target Bunting in the first few rounds of your draft. I just feel like public perception of his fantasy value has fallen farther than it should have. That creates a scenario where perceived value is below actual value, such instances are often exploited by fantasy hockey champions.

Max Domi – Toronto Maple Leafs – Drop

Domi is coming off a strong 2022-2023 campaign that saw him score at a 57-point pace with the Stars and Blackhawks. When an offensively capable player joins a new team where he's projected to play with superstars, the general sentiment is obviously excitement. As a result, the player's fantasy stock understandably rises. What if the best-case scenario is realized and Domi finds instant chemistry with some combination of Toronto's four stars? His point totals would go through the roof! While that's a possible outcome, it's far from the most likely one. But since it's a possible outcome, it'll tempt a fair number of fantasy managers to take a chance on Domi this season.

A closer look at Domi's numbers last year reveals that most of his points during the regular season came with Chicago – where he enjoyed a prominent role. He posted 49 points in 60 appearances with the Blackhawks (0.82 points/game), enjoying over 18 minutes of action per night and a 67% share of the team's total power-play time.  In Dallas, he posted just seven points over 20 outings (0.35 points/game), skating 16 minutes a night and seeing just 37% of the team's time with the man advantage. He upped his production despite seeing limited ice time during the Stars' playoff run (0.68 points/game), but I'm hesitant to emphasize playoff production when projecting performance for the next regular season.

The way I see it, Domi was productive in Chicago because he was one of the top guys on a team devoid of talent. Joining a deeper Stars roster led to less opportunity and less production. I think it's fair to say that Toronto's roster is more like Dallas' than Chicago's if we're talking about abundance of talent. It's unlikely Domi sees a spot on Toronto's top power-play unit, which places limits the height of his offensive output. Domi could still put up strong point totals this year, but I think the hype surrounding his move to Toronto will result in him being drafted earlier than he should be. I'd stay away to avoid overpaying.

Max Pacioretty – Washington Capitals – Cop

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Prior to an injury-riddled 2022-2023 campaign, Pacioretty had flirted with a 40-goal, 80-point pace for three-straight seasons. Because he was such a non-factor this past year, it seems many have forgotten how productive he can be. Out of sight out of mind, I guess. Now, there are some valid injury concerns surrounding Pacioretty. He tore his Achilles tendon twice last season and is still recovering from a late-January surgery that addressed the second tear. That procedure came with a recovery timeline of at least eight to nine months. Although he doesn't think he'll be ready for Washington's first game of the season on October 13th, he shouldn't be out for too long after that.

Now, another legitimate concern is that these injuries will affect his play this season. To assuage that concern, I'd say that Pacioretty's past production has been fueled by his elite shooting ability. So even if his skating isn't back to normal, he can still rely on his shot to put up points. Pacioretty's strength is goal scoring, and he should fit in well with a Washington team that currently has three strong playmaking centers. We're talking about a guy that established himself as an elite goal scorer while playing beside David Desharnais in Montreal. Some may rightly argue that the injury could affect his shooting mechanics or ability to get into scoring areas. In my opinion, because of these massive injury concerns, Pacioretty will fall so far in fantasy drafts that it won't matter if he turns out to be a bust this season. He's a perfect low-risk high reward option.

He may be a bit slow out of the gate since he's been on the shelf for so long, so if you're not comfortable drafting him, or wasting a roster spot as he works his way back, perhaps consider trading for him early on if he's available at a discounted rate.

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