Fantasy Hockey Poll: Playoff Scoring Barometers
Rick Roos
2023-07-19
After running polls as part of this column for quite a while, I've been able to learn which have worked and which haven't. For those that do, I've turned them into annual polls, and this one just graduated to yearly status.
We all know the playoffs are not an environment that resembles the regular season. For one, the teams that make it to the Cup final will have played usually not even a third of the total number of games that constitute a regular season. Beyond that, teams lean on veterans more than usual, and some players soldier through injuries that hamper their performance.
All this notwithstanding, I still think it makes sense to run a poll where we look at skaters who fared markedly better or worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. I'll list a skater's scoring rates for the regular season and the playoffs, plus indicate the midpoint. Your task is to vote for all players who you think will produce, in the 2023-24 regular season, closer to how they did in the 2023 playoffs versus how they did in the 2022-23 regular season.
Here are two examples to help illustrate things. Suppose "Skater A" scored at a 73-point pace in the regular season and a 55-point pace in the playoffs. The midpoint is 64 points; so, if you think he will score below a 64-point pace, i.e., closer to his comparatively lower playoff pace, then he should get your vote. If, instead, you think he'll meet or exceed a 64-point pace, then he would not get your vote. In contrast, "Skater B" did better in the playoffs – let's say a 62-point pace versus a pace of 41 in the regular season. The midpoint is 51.5, which means he would get your vote if you believe he'll score at a 52 or higher scoring pace in the 2023-24 regular season, while you would not vote for him if, instead, you believe he'll score at a rate of 51 or less.
Keep in mind I've deliberately used scoring rate/pace, as that should be your barometer, not actual points. This is especially necessary since the playoffs consist of far fewer games than a regular season.
The 20 voting choices are listed below in alphabetical order with their 2022-23 scoring pace, their 2023 playoff scoring pace, and the midpoint between the two. A link to cast votes will appear at the end of the column.
Ivan Barbashev (Playoff pace = 67; Regular Season pace = 45; Midpoint = 56)
The Russian failed to capitalize on a strong 2021-22 by seeing his scoring pace drop by 25%. But when it came time for the playoffs he played his best hockey to date, due mainly to chemistry with Jack Eichel (more on him below). Barbashev re-upped with the Knights, so the question becomes whether the playoffs were a short-term surge or, instead, his new normal.
Aleksander Barkov (Playoff pace = 62; Regular Season pace = 94; Midpoint = 78)
Even as the Panthers were defying the odds to make it to the Cup final, Barkov was playing below his normal level. Perhaps he was content to leave the scoring to the likes of Matthew Tkachuk and focus on more of a two-way game? We shall see come 2023-24.
Sam Bennett (Playoff pace = 61; Regular Season pace = 52; Midpoint = 56.5)
Seeing more time on PP1 led to Bennett upping his playoff rate. But when it's the regular season Bennett focuses more on sandpaper and less on scoring, with his points coming mainly from his deployment. But perhaps this is a sign of an upswing that will continue into 2023-24?
Brent Burns (Playoff pace = 49; Regular Season pace = 61; Midpoint = 55)
Just as it started to look like he might be slowing, Burns thrived in 2022-23. When the playoffs came though, his play slipped. With the Hurricanes having signed Dmitri Orlov, who many have always felt could do better if only given a chance, one has to wonder if Burns will find it tougher to produce like he did in the 2022-23 campaign.
Vince Dunn (Playoff pace = 42; Regular Season pace = 65; Midpoint = 53.5)
Always thought by many to be capable of better things, even the most ardent Dunn supporters likely were surprised at just how productive he was for Seattle in 2022-23. Even before the playoffs began there were whispers of regression, with his poorer showing the second season only fanning those flames.
Jack Eichel (Playoff pace = 97; Regular Season pace = 80; Midpoint = 88.5)
First, he was second banana to Connor McDavid, then stuck on lousy Sabres teams. After that came the injury issues. But ladies and gentlemen, Eichel not only is now a Cup winner but also a playoff scoring champ. Still, with Vegas being a balanced team and not normally leaning on players in the regular season, one has to wonder if he can carry this momentum into the 2023-24 campaign.
Adam Fox (Playoff pace = 93; Regular Season pace = 72; Midpoint = 82.5)
Although 2022-23 was hardly a disappointment for Fox, many had him pegged for point per game production, due to his talent and playing for the high-octane Rangers. And, sure enough, that's what he produced in the playoffs. Will that springboard him back above the point per game level though for 2023-24?
Roope Hintz (Playoff pace = 103; Regular Season pace = 84; Midpoint = 93.5)
While 2022-23 might have been the JRob (more on him below) show, the playoffs saw Hintz, who inked a major extension during the season, truly shine. Like Vegas though, Dallas normally does not play its stars into the ground; so, unless Hintz siphons away points from Jrob come 2023-24, the playoffs might have been more of a scoring burst than a new normal.
Jack Hughes (Playoff pace = 75; Regular Season pace = 104; Midpoint = 89.5)
After a season that saw him finish with an SOG and scoring rate not seen at his age since Mario Lemieux, it was a bit surprising for Hughes not to have even managed a point per game during the playoffs. Whether he was trying to do too much or play less selfishly, the result was subpar and casts at least some doubt as to whether he's arrived as one of the most elite NHL centers.
Zach Hyman (Playoff pace = 75; Regular Season pace = 86; Midpoint = 80.5)
After a first season with the Oilers that saw Hyman produce only as well as he did in his last two with the Leafs, everything clicked for Hyman in 2022-23…..until the playoffs. With the return to health of Evander Kane and the signing of Connor Brown, one has to wonder if Hyman will still get the deployment he needs to thrive ala how he did in the 2022-23 regular season.
Anze Kopitar (Playoff pace = 95; Regular Season pace = 74; Midpoint = 84.5)
Did he experience a short-term scoring burst in the playoffs, or just not play to his full potential in the regular season? My gut says the former, as LA is such a deep team that it's difficult to envision any player, even one as talented as Kopitar, hitting the point per game threshold.
Nikita Kucherov (Playoff pace = 82; Regular Season pace = 113; Midpoint = 97.5)
Although Kucherov once again starred in the regular season, his 113 points was a drop from the 120 pace he had in 2021-22 and his career best of 128. And with Kucherov now on the other side of 30 and Tampa getting longer in the tooth, perhaps what we saw in the playoffs might've been a sign of him faring worse come 2023-24?
Brad Marchand (Playoff pace = 117; Regular Season pace = 75; Midpoint = 96)
After a very atypical – for him – regular season, Marchand thrived in the playoffs even as the Bruins were shown the door in round one. Let's not forget that Marchand missed the early part of 2022-23, so he came into the season rusty, suggesting that his playoff self might still be the version of Marchand we should continue to expect.
Connor McDavid (Playoff pace = 136; Regular Season pace = 153; Midpoint = 144.5)
It's amazing that a 136-point pace would represent a step down for anyone in today's NHL. Yet that's just how truly special a player McDavid is. But with the Oilers failing to make a deep run, might there be a push from Edmonton brass for McDavid to "save up" for the playoffs rather than go as nuts in the regular season?
Brandon Montour (Playoff pace = 50; Regular Season pace = 75; Midpoint = 62.5)
Unlike Dunn, I'm not sure anyone saw Montour's 2022-23 performance coming. But even as everyone said he'd falter, he never did…..until the playoffs. Yes, he seemingly cemented himself as the top option for blueline offense in Florida; however, with Aaron Ekblad, who scored at an even higher pace in the 2021-22 regular season, still in the picture, Montour's ability to do as well in 2023-24 might be in doubt.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Playoff pace = 75; Regular Season pace = 104; Midpoint = 89.5)
Boosted by dozens of regular season PPPts, RNH easily established a career scoring best. No question he'll still be a key member of PP1 for the Oilers; however, after he came back to earth during the playoffs one has to ponder if RNH's 2022-23 regular season will be an outlier.
Ryan O'Reilly (Playoff pace = 67; Regular Season pace = 46; Midpoint = 56.5)
Following a downright lousy 2022-23 regular season, the veteran O'Reilly fared quite well with the Leafs, including in the playoffs, making poolies second guess whether his gas tank was on empty. Still, now he's with the Preds, a team not known for high scoring forwards. And ROR might be put into a second line center role tasked with shutting down other teams' top line, perhaps at the further cost of his scoring.
Jason Roberston (Playoff pace = 77; Regular Season pace = 109; Midpoint = 93)
While it might have been too tall of an order to expect similar production in the playoffs, for JRob not to even hit the point per game mark was a shocker. He disappeared for several games and was not the force he was in the regular season. Is this a sign that he overachieved, or that Roope Hintz will be grabbing a bigger share of the scoring pie come 2023-24?
Mark Stone (Playoff pace = 89; Regular Season pace = 72; Midpoint = 80.5)
The glass back of Mark Stone didn't shatter during the playoffs; in fact, he showed signs of returning to being the high scoring forward he was before injuries took their toll. Whether or not he can do this well over the rigors of 2023-24 though remains to be seen.
Pavel Zacha (Playoff pace = 70; Regular Season pace = 57; Midpoint = 63.5)
It would be a lot easier to vote on this if it was known what the fates of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci were, as if one or both retire Zacha should have a chance at big scoring gains, given how well he meshed with David Pastrnak. And supposing one or even both return – let's not overlook that Zacha still is not that old due to starting his career as a teen, and therefore could realistically make organic scoring gains.
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Now that you've seen the data, it's time to make your voices heard. To review, you should vote for any and all players for whom their 2023-24 regular season scoring rate will be closer to their 2023 playoffs scoring rate, rather than their 2022-23 regular season scoring rate. To cast your votes, click here.
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