Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Colorado Avalanche

Ian Gooding

2023-08-15

For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 21st annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

* * Pick up the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide here – always updated * * 

Gone J.T. Compher, Evan Rodrigues, Alex Newhook, Denis Malgin, Matt Nieto, Erik Johnson, Lars Eller, Shane Bowers, Jonas Johansson, Keith Kinkaid

Incoming Ryan Johansen, Ross Colton, Jonathan Drouin, Miles Wood, Fredrik Olofsson, Riley Tufte, Chris Wagner, Corey Schueneman, Arvid Holm

Impact of changes – The Colorado organization has been highly effective at maximizing the potential of players that they acquire from other organizations. Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Evan Rodrigues, and Devon Toews are examples of this. They hope to do the same with Johansen, Colton, Drouin, and Wood. In terms of overall production, these additions likely won't result in an increase in scoring for the Avalanche and may even represent a slight downgrade for a team that is a strong Stanley Cup favorite again.

Johansen should fill a second-line role for the Avalanche, a high-octane team that might be able to reverse the trend of some of his recent down seasons. Colton has mainly been a bottom-6 forward for the Lightning, but the fact that Avalanche players could miss considerable games due to injury could elevate him to more of a scoring role. One of those injury-prone players is Drouin, who hopes to turn his career around while reuniting with old junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon. Wood should provide some grit to a team that doesn't possess a lot of it, which could be beneficial come playoff time.

The Avalanche signed Wood to a six-year contract and gave Colton a salary of $4 million per season over four years, so expect both players to take on key two-way roles. Drouin is being given a one-year contract at near minimum, so this is a true make-or-break season for him.

Ready for Full TimeJean-Luc Foudy – The Avalanche don't have a whole lot in the system thanks to contending in recent seasons, so Foudy might be their best bet when combining NHL closeness with upside. He has played in at least parts of three AHL seasons and is only 21 years old, so he has plenty of pro experience already under his belt. Most recently, he finished with 36 points in 46 games in 2022-23, although he did not record a point in nine NHL games. The 2020 third-round pick could play more NHL games than that this season, especially when taking into account the potential for injuries. He will be hard-pressed to play a prominent role, though.

Justus Annunen – Backup goalie Pavel Francouz has spent considerable time on the injured list throughout his career, which could mean that Annunen is recalled again this season. Since Annunen is now third on the goalie depth chart, he could see more action than just the four combined games that he has played in the NHL over the past two seasons. The 23-year-old Annunen has played at least 40 AHL games over each of the past two seasons, improving his goals-against average and save percentage in 2022-23. Francouz is set to become a UFA after the season, so Annunen might receive a longer NHL audition this season.

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Fantasy Outlook – The Avalanche continue to be all about their big three of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. All three will likely be drafted in the first two rounds of 12-team drafts, perhaps even the first round for all. Surprisingly, MacKinnon posted the first 100-point campaign of his career in 2022-23, but we all knew he was capable of that. In fact, his value may never be higher. Rantanen also reached 100 points for the first time in 2022-23 while also reaching the 50-goal club. Makar is the only defensemen to score at a point-per-game pace for three consecutive seasons, but his value continues to be hindered by injuries, including 22 games missed in 2022-23.

Speaking of injuries, the Avalanche have battled plenty of them the past few seasons. MacKinnon, Makar, Johansen, Drouin, and Francouz are just some of the Avalanche players that should be considered injury risks. Team captain Gabriel Landeskog is expected to miss the entire 2023-24 season after undergoing a cartilage transplant in his right knee. This will be his second consecutive season missed, a continued hindrance to a team with strong Stanley Cup hopes. Injuries, as opposed to a specific opponent, might be the downfall for these Avalanche.

One bit of good news is that Nichushkin is expected to return in 2023-24. He left the team during the first round due to a reported personal matter. At the time, it seemed like he may face suspension once he returns, but the league will not investigate the matter in question any further. 

The Avs also have a whole host of other fantasy options, especially on defense. Toews, Bowen Byram, and Samuel Girard are all capable of a 40-point pace or higher. Another Makar injury could boost the value of one or more of these players, although Toews would most likely inherit the first-unit power-play minutes.

Before the 2022-23 season, Alexandar Georgiev was a question mark as the Avalanche starter, since he lacked a proven track record as an NHL starter. It turns out that he was more than capable, playing in 62 games (tied for 3rd in NHL) while tying for the league lead with 40 wins. He should earn plenty of wins again and appears capable of posting decent ratios, so he should now be considered a top-10 goalie in fantasy leagues.

Fantasy Grade: A (last year was also A)

Check out the rest of the Dobber team previews here.

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