Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Florida Panthers
Ian Gooding
2023-08-20
For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
The 21st annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.
Enjoy!
* * Pick up the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide here – always updated * *
Gone – Anthony Duclair, Radko Gudas, Marc Staal, Eric Staal, Colin White, Givani Smith, Patric Hornqvist, Anton Levtchi, Aleksi Heponiemi, Alex Lyon
Incoming – Evan Rodrigues, Rasmus Asplund, Kevin Stenlund, Steven Lorentz, William Lockwood, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Dmitry Kulikov, Niko Mikkola, Mike Reilly, Anthony Stolarz
Impact of changes – A team coming off a run to the Stanley Cup Final shouldn't be expected to make major personnel changes. Such is the case for the Panthers, whose offseason moves do not consist of any first-line forwards or top-pair defensemen.
The offseason additions are mainly focused on getting bodies into the lineup, particularly on defense. Both Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour could miss the start of the season due to offseason shoulder surgeries. The Panthers have also lost Gudas and Marc Staal, both of whom were in the lineup for all 21 playoff games. As a result, the Panthers have brought in Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Mikkola, and Reilly to help fill the void on defense. This hardly represents an upgrade, which could strain playoff hero Sergei Bobrovsky right from the start.
Based on production, Rodrigues will likely represent a slight downgrade on Duclair, but he should fill a similar role as a middle-six winger. Otherwise, the Panthers' top line and first-unit power play should be largely unaffected by the offseason changes.
Ready for Full Time – Grigori Denisenko was once a blue-chip prospect, but his stock has been on the decline since being drafted in 2018 and starring in the World Junior tournament shortly after. The good news is that he is a strong bet to make the Panthers this season. He most recently finished with 36 points in 56 AHL games but just three points in 18 NHL games. Fantasy teams shouldn't have high expectations for the now-23-year-old anymore, but he has a chance to become fantasy relevant if he finds his way onto the right scoring line.
Mackie Samoskevich appears to have higher upside at this point than Denisenko, but he is less likely to play in the NHL this season. After finishing third on a strong Michigan team in scoring (behind Adam Fantilli and Luke Hughes) with 43 points in 39 games, Samoskevich joined the AHL's Charlotte Checkers just before the playoffs. Although he recorded six points in nine combined AHL regular season and playoff games, the Panthers' 2021 first-round pick (24th overall) will likely need a full season in the AHL.
Fantasy Outlook – Matthew Tkachuk's dominance during the playoffs should cement his spot as one of the NHL's elite forwards. He was already one of the top players in fantasy, recording back-to-back 40-goal and 100-point seasons. He should be healed from the broken sternum he suffered during the Stanley Cup Final, but the lingering pain can take months to go away. The Panthers have other reliable top 6 forwards returning in captain Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Bennett. Barkov has shown remarkable consistency as a point-per-game player for four of the past five seasons.
Montour took a big step forward in 2022-23, posting a career-high 73 points when he had previously never even reached 40 points. Was it a fluke, or is he really a top-tier defenseman in fantasy? We may not truly find out this season, since his season may start late due to offseason shoulder surgery. With Montour and Ekblad possibly both out of the lineup to start the season, Gustav Forsling could receive top-pair minutes and even first-unit power-play time right out of the gate.
After an impressive playoff run, has Bobrovsky found a new (previous level) to his game? Historically, the playoffs have quite often been their own entity, which means you would be better off to take his playoff success with a grain of salt. Bobrovsky should play about 50 games again, since the Panthers want to ensure return on investment on his $10 million per season cap hit. Spencer Knight is expected to return from the NHLPA player assistance program, while Stolarz has also been brought on to provide goaltending depth. Both could push Bob for starts.
Fantasy Grade: B+ (last year was a B)
Check out the rest of the Dobber team previews here.