For the last 20 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 21^st annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

Be sure to pick up your copy of the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide.

Gone – Jonathan Drouin, Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman, Alex Belzile, Chris Tierney, Paul Byron, Denis Gurianov, Madison Bowey, Corey Schueneman

Incoming – Alex Newhook, Lias Andersson, Brady Keeper, Philippe Maillet, Nathan Lagare, Gustav Lindström, Casey DeSmith

Impact of Changes – None of the players leaving Montreal were high-end options for them, though not for lack of trying. Injuries caught up to Drouin and he never regained his footing, Hoffman is in full decline, Gurianov did not do enough to impress the coaching staff, Dadonov was a trade chip, and the others were depth options. It is a lot of forwards that could have been impediments to their prospects earning roster spots, though, so it clears some logjams. Not only does it open paths for Rafael Harvey-Pinard to have a consistent top-6 role but might even open a spot for a prospect like Owen Beck, Sean Farrell, or Filip Mesar, depending on training camp performance.

Montreal was part of two big offseason trades and the first brought Alex Newhook into the fold. The 16^th overall pick in 2019 did not reach the highs Colorado needed him to fast enough, so he was dealt to Montreal in the hopes that the Canadiens can help him regain his offensive prowess. He will be given a top-6 role, but it's a matter of whether he or Sean Monahan earn a top PP position. That will make a big difference on Newhook's fantasy upside. Newhook will be in a sheltered role, so he has a chance to thrive in Montreal's playmaking offence.

Jeff Petry returned in the Erik Karlsson trade as Montreal acted as a broker for cap space. He was subsequently shipped to Detroit for 24-year-old blue liner Gustav Lindström. With the Red Wings' defence corps in the state that it was/is in, had Lindström been able to earn even a third-pair role, he would still be on the team. His addition gives some competition to the young defencemen already in Montreal, but he's less of an impediment than Petry would have been. His fantasy value remains next-to-none.

DeSmith gives Montreal three NHL goalies, plus Cayden Primeau in the AHL. Barring another trade – which seems eminently possible – we may not see a single Habs goalie get 40 starts. In that case, they are going to be streaming options, not necessarily draft options, in many leagues.

Ready For Full Time – Jesse Ylönen, Rafael Harvey-Pinard

Despite a bevy of talented prospects, it's likely players we've already seen at the NHL level that crack the NHL roster in October. Ylönen was a regular in the second half of the season, but won't get preferential offensive treatment and doesn't bring peripherals, so his fantasy value is minimal. Harvey-Pinard is a different matter.

Last season, Harvey-Pinard played 32 games without Cole Caufield in the lineup and with Nick Suzuki frequently as his centre. In those minutes, Suzuki's points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 remained the exact same (2.29) as it was with Caufield next to him. The team scored more with Suzuki/RHP on the ice than Suzuki/Caufield, got a higher share of all the goals scored (56.2% with RHP against 50.5% with Caufield), and a higher share of the expected goals. Caufield was on pace for 46 goals when he was injured, and the top line was better after his injury in every respect. That is why Harvey-Pinard should get a look with Suzuki again, though whether it's a long-term solution remains to be seen.  

Players like Beck and Mesar have potential, but the Canadiens have 14 forwards with an NHL contract for 2023-24, and 12 for 2024-25 with Ylönen and Monahan as a pending RFA and UFA, respectively. With Carey Price on LTIR, they can put someone like Michael Pezzetta or Joel Armia in the AHL, but it's an uphill climb for full-season relevance for any offensive prospect in the organization.

Fantasy Outlook – In 2022-23, Montreal had two skaters – one forward (Suzuki, 82) and one defenceman (Kovacevic, 77, and he was quietly very good) – play at least 70 games. Even among basement teams, that's extreme; San Jose had 10 players reach 70 games, Chicago had seven, and the oft-injured Blue Jackets had seven. All the injuries led to one player (Suzuki, 66) reaching 40 points. In that sense, Montreal just getting healthy-ish seasons from Monahan, Juraj Slafkovsky, Kirby Dach, Brendan Gallagher, and Mike Matheson will make a big difference in their fantasy outlook.

After the Caufield injury on January 19^th, Montreal finished their next 36 games being 19^th in the league in even-strength goals per minute (2.79). That number surpassed Pittsburgh (2.77), Tampa Bay (2.71), Washington (2.64), and Winnipeg (2.55). A young, fast team is what they've been built to be, and they are starting to get the depth to score beyond Suzuki/Caufield. Playing a lot off the rush will create good offensive opportunities, but until they lock down their defensive play, the inevitable turnovers will mean some long nights for their goalies. Either way, Suzuki has 80-point upside, Caufield is a 40-goal threat, RHP brings a lot of hits which will help float his value in multi-cat formats, and Dach has 20-goal, 60-point potential. They won't have players selected in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts, but certainly a handful between pick 40 and pick 140.

Things are interesting on the blue line. Matheson missed nearly half the season due to injury but had a tremendous output in his 48 games, posting 34 points (nine on the PP), 133 hits+blocks, and 2.6 shots per night. Even 80% of that over the course of 75 games would be a great multi-cat fantasy season… The veterans of Matheson and David Savard will continue to eat tough minutes as the young blue liners find their groove at the NHL level, so Arber Xhekaj may be the only depth blue-line option with fantasy value in banger leagues… Secondary PP minutes for Justin Barron could mean a 30-point season, just beware of his multi-cat value due to limited ice time… After posting nine straight seasons of at least 120 hits, Savard fell to 61 in 62 games last season. His shot-blocking levels keep him in play for multi-cat formats, but more physicality would be nice to see… In many leagues, Matheson will be the only one worth drafting, and early in fantasy draft season, he's a tremendous value.

Montreal has turned into a transition team under coach Martin St. Louis, focused on counterattacking and playing off the rush than dump-and-chase. They were similar to teams like Boston and St. Louis in how they created offence, but those teams had more high-end, established offensive stars that gave them far better results. It does provide the template for how the Canadiens will play, though, and it's great news for skaters like Caufield, Suzuki, RHP, Matheson, Dach, and even Monahan.

That type of offence will lead to turnovers and missed defensive assignments until they reach the maturity levels of Boston and St. Louis. It will produce bad games for the goaltenders as they face wave after wave of counterattacks and odd-man rushes from the opponent. It is good news for the fantasy skaters, but not so much for the fantasy goalies, and the skaters will feel the pain in fantasy leagues still using plus/minus.

Fantasy Grade – C+ (last year was D+)

Read all the other fantasy grade articles here.

Data from Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, and Cap Friendly.