Training camps are about to get underway and that means plenty of information will leak out over the next few weeks. As mentioned in the Ramblings on Tuesday, a lot of it is not helpful for fantasy owners but there are always things to watch for; which prospects are playing with NHL roster players, and which aren't, for one. Another is what specific power play setups are, even in early split-squad games either against other franchises or intra-team scrimmages. Those things may not last right through April, but it does give us a peek into what the coaches see as their offensive hierarchy.

Getting to the point here, let's move along and talk about potential breakout players. There are lots of those provided in the 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide – available for purchase through that link – and Alex did something like this yesterday on a team-by-team basis, but I wanted to give some of my own names.

When looking at guys that improved significantly in 2022-23 when compared to 2021-22, there are some traits they share. Other than "play for the Edmonton Oilers" and "have a huge shooting percentage increase," the two most common traits are 1) getting more top power play ice time and 2) getting more overall ice time. Think of players like Tim Stützle, Elias Pettersson, Travis Konecny, Martin Necas, Miro Heiskanen, and Brandon Montour. They all saw large rises in ice time, or a move to their team's PP1, or both, and thrived.

How about 2023-24? Well, let's take a look at some forwards that could/should see a big TOI rise, a top PP role, or both. As always, data from our Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, and AllThreeZones, unless otherwise indicated. These will generally be players around 25 years old or younger but will not include rookies.

Arthur Kaliyev

The first name that came to mind was Arthur Kaliyev. Anyone that reads my writing knows I am a big fan of his offensive profile, and wrote a bit about him back in July. My personal projection for him is:

Los Angeles shipped out both Gabriel Vilardi and Alex Iafallo in a package for Pierre-Luc Dubois. We have to wait and see what they decide to do with their lines, but the team traded two wingers (along with a fourth-line centre) in exchange for a top-6 centre. They are still deep on the wing with Quinton Byfield, Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Viktor Arvidsson, and Trevor Moore all returning, but that does leave a spot on the third line, at the very least. Last year, Los Angeles's top-9 forwards all skated at least 12:30 a game at even strength, Iafallo and Vilardi included. Kaliyev will be on one of their split PP units – likely the second one – but he stands to gain a lot of ice time at even strength.

Importantly, for those even-strength minutes, there's a chance he gets Phillip Danault as a pivot, and he's both responsible defensively and a good playmaker. That could help Kaliyev take advantage of his shot and his ability to get into shooting positions. There may be a huge jump in EV shooting percentage as a result (he's been under 6% in both his seasons), on top of more ice time. Better efficiency and (hopefully) a lot more ice time? Music to this fantasy manager's ears, even if a true high-end breakout is a couple years down the road.

Filip Chytil

This is a projection that is fairly high for a guy that may not play 15 minutes a game:

What is pushing him towards 60 points is my assumption that he eventually replaces Vincent Trocheck on the top power play unit, or does so in spurts. The complication is Blake Wheeler, who looks primed to earn some top PP minutes as well, but new coach Peter Laviolette is a coach who often used two centres for his top PP unit in Washington: Dylan Strome, TJ Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Nicklas Backstrom were four of their five most-used PP forwards over Laviolette's final two seasons in Washington, with the last being Alex Ovechkin. All of those guys, outside Ovi, can take faceoffs. Wheeler can, too, but he's also the same handedness as Mika Zibanejad so that feels like diminishing returns.

If my assumption is wrong and either Trocheck stays on the PP unit or Wheeler takes his spot instead, then Chytil's projection will be way off. It is just a personal belief that the way Laviolette runs his power plays could benefit Chytil for stretches this season and help juice his point totals. We will find out soon enough.

Matthew Boldy

It probably isn't a surprise to a lot of people, but Boldy is one of the forwards I have reaching 70 points for the first time in his career:

The young Wild star had a huge TOI increase last year, reaching 18:29 over his 81 games. Mats Zuccarello, however, was over 20 minutes a game as he was Kirill Kaprizov's running mate once again. If that persists, it is really hard to see Boldy adding much ice time to his name, and he'll be reliant on either Joel Eriksson Ek being healthy or Marco Rossi breaking out.

What is driving Boldy's projection here is the assumption that, for stretches, Boldy and Zuccarello will effectively switch spots, putting Boldy over 20 minutes and the former Rangers winger down to 18-and-change. The team is not deep offensively and there will be times when they have to load the top line like Colorado or Tampa Bay have done. It isn't for no reason, either: Zuccarello saw across-the-board declines (often significant ones) in his micro stats like scoring chance assists (helpers on teammate chances), controlled zone entry/exit percentages, and defensive zone work. At 36 years old, Father Time may have finally come for the Norwegian star.

Boldy is an emerging offensive dynamo, he just needs the right role to really start thriving. That upside has been apparent, and it should really start showing itself this season.

Luke Evangelista

Evangelista managed 15 points in his 24-game stint last year, pacing for 51 points in a full season. In that sense, this projection isn't lofty:

His brief NHL appearance could have gone even better, too, as he put up just two power play points in his 77 minutes of PPTOI. That is awful efficiency, but that was also on a roster that was missing a lot of their high-end players and was turning over to the future. Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg will both be healthy, and the addition of Ryan O'Reilly should help on the playmaking front. Last season, forwards in the middle of the power play point production list managed roughly 4.75 points/60 minutes while Evangelista was at 1.56. Just being around the league average, and on the top PP unit, could triple his PP output and put 20 PPPs in range.

All that relies on the assumption that he's a regular on the top power play this season. If he's not, we can easily knock 10 points off his projection. I believe he'll be there for much of the campaign, though, and he could have a breakout season ahead.

Pavel Zacha

It will be interesting to see how Boston manages player roles with both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring. The team hadn't given either of those centres super-heavy ice time for years now, but there was no need because the focus was winning a Stanley Cup, and not having productive regular seasons. How that changes with them gone remains to be seen, but Zacha will be a fixture of the top PP unit, and it resulted in this point projection:

It really isn't a huge improvement, on a per-game basis, from last year, but it also assumes that when all is said and done, he ends up with similar TOI/game to Charlie Coyle. If that's wrong and Zacha greatly exceeds Coyle, then this projection moves past 70 points quite easily.

Last season, Zacha put up 3.24 points/60 minutes at even strength when he was skating with David Pastrnak (1.90 points/60 without him). That was while the team shot 15.7% with them on the ice together, and that's going to regress. What helps him, though, is the assumption that he will add nearly two minutes per game in EVTOI. Even if the team's shooting percentage falls to a reasonable 11%, just the added ice time would cushion the blow by 4-5 points. He would lose more with that large of a regression, but a full-time top PP role makes up for the rest and then some. Do not be shocked if Zacha hits the 70-point mark for the first time.  

Kirby Dach

A healthy season with an improved top-6 has given Dach a projection of a plateau he has never come close to reaching:

This is a breakout where it's not due to a huge increase in TOI, but just an improved supporting cast (and a full season). Dach managed just 0.84 assists/60 minutes at even strength in 2022-23, something that was in line with his years in Chicago. His playmaking micro stats were very strong, though, and he only figured into half the goals scored with him on the ice. There are a lot of 'What Ifs' on the Montreal roster, but if guys like Alex Newhook and Rafael Harvey-Pinard can be good contributors, Dach stands to reap the benefits.

There is a lot riding on the young non-Caufield/Suzuki forwards to take steps forward this year and whether that happens (or not) will determine whether Dach paces for a 50-point season or pushes past 60 points. If the young forwards do improve, this will be Dach's breakout effort.

Brandon Hagel

There are no issues with looking at Hagel's 30-goal, 64-point effort as his breakout season. With that said, my projections do have him improving on that:

Alex Killorn signing in Anaheim leave Hagel as the beneficiary of all those power play minutes. In 2022-23, Hagel and Killorn often rotated on the top power play with Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos being the mainstays. Tampa Bay has no high-end prospects pushing for top PPTOI, so the only challengers will be guys returning from last season and the coaching staff seemed reticent to use Anthony Cirelli there. After Hagel and Cirelli, there really is not much else of a top PPTOI threat unless they move to a 3F/2D setup for some reason. In other words, it is reasonable to assume that Hagel absorbs a large chunk of Killorn's man advantage minutes, pushing the former Chicago forward to nearly 300 minutes of PPTOI. That is… a lot of time to skate with such a talented unit. The result is Hagel's PP projection moving past 20 PPPs, and his overall point projection inching over 70.

Fantasy owners are getting wise to this, and I've seen Hagel drafted inside the top-120 quite often, which means they see him as a core piece of fantasy rosters. Not a bad move and I think that, with a little luck, there's upside even beyond 70 points.