Ramblings: Eriksson Ek Healthy; Positions to Watch in Chicago, San Jose, Buffalo, Winnipeg, Carolina, and More – September 19

Michael Clifford

2023-09-19

As training camps get underway later this week, there will be a lot of quotes from players, coaches, staff, and media covering a variety of topics. Most of them will be completely useless from a fantasy hockey perspective so knowing what to filter out and what to internalize becomes a useful skill. For example, a player's physical fitness levels are useless; they're professional athletes, if they're in bad shape, we'll know very, very soon. Being healthy is another matter entirely, though, which is why this quote from Joel Eriksson Ek is good to see:

Hopefully he's all-systems-go for the start of the season, and it looks like he will be.  

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My last several Ramblings have focused on point projections to help those doing drafts before training camps begin. We had groups of defencemen, groups of forwards, offensive stars that could improve/decline by a significant margin, and forwards with projections that were surprising (for any reason). Sometime before the season starts, I am going to release full rankings to show just how much players help/hurt in specific categories. Anyone needing some extra help, go grab our 2023-24 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide for projections, line combinations, prospect outlooks, breakout players, and a whole lot more. It is updated whenever there's a transaction, so fantasy managers will always have current information at their fingertips.

Rookie camps across the league have begun and main roster camps will start at some point in the next week. To that end, I am a big pro wrestling fan and that allows me to say pro wrestling and pro sports training camps have one major trait in common: positioning matters. In pro wrestling, it means that even if a wrestler is losing a bunch of (pre-determined) matches, if their opponents are names at the top of the company, the loser is being positioned as a future star. For one reason or another, that wrestling company sees them, at the least, as a companion for their top box-office draws moving forward. The same goes for training camps because even in split-squad situations, guys skating on the top lines or the top power play are the guys the coaching staff see as potential top-of-the-roster options. They are the players we need to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes.

For that reason, let’s review 10 spots to keep an eye on in training camps. It could be an open spot on a (hopefully) productive line, positions where a prospect could surprise, a power play with uncertain components, or whatever else comes to mind. Data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Hall-Bedard-???

My assumption is Taylor Hall spends a lot of minutes with Connor Bedard. I have seen presumptions about Lukas Reichel going there instead, but having two rookies on the top line with our question mark feels like a bridge too far. I am assuming that as long as Hall is healthy, he'll skate with Bedard. Who, then, is going to be their right winger?

There aren't a lot of options. Tyler Johnson could go there, as could Corey Perry in spurts, but I am hoping – along with many others – that it ends up being Taylor Raddysh. He has scored at a borderline second-line rate over the last two seasons, and managed 20 goals on an awful Chicago team in 2022-23. If he ends up as the top-line running mate, and gets to the top power play? That is a useful fantasy option, especially in banger leagues considering his 185 hits in 152 games while skating just 14:30.

San Jose PP1 Quarterback

This is a situation I wrote about last month, but bears repeating. With Erik Karlsson gone, there are a lot of minutes to fill, and the top power play is key amongst them. The team will be bad, but any defenceman running a top quintet is a double-digit PP point threat, and that has fantasy value in non-shallow leagues.

Following his trade from Colorado in January, Jacob MacDonald 'ran' the second PP unit in that he got most of whatever minutes Karlsson didn't play, which wasn't a lot. All the same, the only real threat is prospect Henry Thrun, and any rookie stepping into a PP1 quarterback role is a lot to ask. On top of that, San Jose has eight defencemen signed to NHL contracts. They could put any of them on waivers because they have the cap space to do it, but it tells me that Thrun may start in the AHL before a recall in November or December. Training camp will tell us one way or another.

Second Line Kings

The addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois gives Los Angeles great depth down the middle. If we assume that they leave the top line of Kempe-Kopitar-Byfield intact, what does the second line look like? Do they use Dubois there and move Phillip Danault to the third line? Do they leave Danault on the second line for his faceoff ability and put Dubois on the wing? The answer to those two questions will affect their wingers a lot.

A second line of Dubois-Danault-Fiala looks great for the team, but it would be awful for the fantasy values of guys like Viktor Arvidsson and Arthur Kaliyev as they get stuffed down the lineup. Where the team slots Dubois and Danault in training camp/exhibition will tell us a lot about how their wingers will be used.

Connor-Scheifele-???

I haven't been shy about my relative pessimism about the Winnipeg Jets this season, but that doesn't mean fantasy futility. It also wouldn't be the first time my offseason pessimism about a franchise blew up in my face, either.

Anyway, assuming Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele stick on the top line, especially with Dubois gone, it leaves a prime offensive spot on the right side. We have three candidates: Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter, and Cole Perfetti.

Ehlers makes sense because he's the team's best winger, but it wouldn't leave a lot for the second line. Putting Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi together without a proven veteran alongside them would be a big gamble and that doesn't strike me as something Rick Bowness would do, at least not to start the year.

Perfetti did spend half of his 5-on-5 time with Scheifele last season but would have to line up on the right side to get on that line. He can do it, but that feels like something that happens after 20 or 30 games, and not for Game 1 of the regular season.

Bowness had Winnipeg playing much less off the rush than the year prior, according to tracking from AllThreeZones. The winger that perennially generates his offence off forechecking rather than the rush is Niederreiter. He could be a good pressure-first guy that can open space for his talented line mates. I think he gets first crack at the first line, but we'll find out soon enough.

Arizona Power Play Formation

Like everyone else, the anticipation for what Arizona's power play looks like is palpable, I think? It's something, at any rate. With large training camp rosters, we may not get a lot of information right away, but which defenceman is skating with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz is very important. Things will change during the season, but who is on the blue line with their two offensive stars, as well as whichever forwards may be paired with them, is a situation worth keeping tabs on.

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One final note about the Arizona power play: a friend of mine said he thinks Arizona spent a second round pick to acquire Sean Durzi for one reason only, and it's his power play prowess. When he put it like that, it made a lot of sense that he's a lock to start the season there, but we should know for sure soon enough.

Sebastian Aho's Right Winger

Martin Necas did not spend all that much time with Sebastian Aho in 2022-23. Out of nearly 1137 minutes at 5-on-5, Necas skated a little over 338 with Carolina's top centre, or roughly 30%. Conversely, Seth Jarvis spent over double that with Aho, coming in around 64% of his 5-on-5 time.

That TOI split is notable because the Jarvis/Aho duo was not that good offensively last season, scoring 2.92 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. For comparison's sake, the Vegas fourth line of Roy-Carrier-Kolesar scored 2.93 goals/60 minutes. Things were even worse in the minutes where Andrei Svechnikov was on the second line, so… yeah. Necas and Aho were much better together offensively, but that would put a lot of offensive pressure on whomever skates with Jesperi Kotkaniemi on the second line, and it would be a lot to ask of Jarvis, even if Andrei Svechnikov is on the other side. Which right winger lines up with Aho? Fantasy seasons could hinge on it.

Let's Get Laffy

Blake Wheeler was signed by the New York Rangers, but their top-6 right wing spots have been an issue ever since the Pavel Buchnevich trade. Kaapo Kakko hasn't (yet) evolved into the second-line scorer they need him to be, they tried stopgaps at the Trade Deadline last year, but nothing has stuck.

Training camps will tell us a lot about how the Rangers want to run their top two lines. The same left/centre combinations from last year will remain in some form, and Wheeler likely takes one of the two remaining wing slots to start the year, which leaves one spot open. Is it time for Alexis Lafrenière to break through?

I wrote a long breakdown of Lafrenière's career to date over on my personal blog and the short of it is the Rangers are a team that played pitch-and-catch in the offensive zone, or played off the rush. To date, that has not been how the first overall pick has thrived – he thrived on the forecheck and playing around the net. How the Rangers change their offence under new coach Peter Laviolette, if at all, could benefit Lafrenière a lot if he’s in a top-6 role.

Buffalo's Sixth Forward

With Jack Quinn expected to miss a big chunk of the regular season, there is one spot open in Buffalo's top-6 forward mix. Casey Mittelstadt is possible, but he's a left-shot centre that is likely needed on the third line. Victor Olofsson would make sense, at least for a couple months until Quinn returns, but then one of he or JJ Peterka would have to play on their off wing. Olofsson may be a better option on a hyper-sheltered third line with Mittelstadt.

A few of us here at Dobber Hockey, including Dobber himself, have wondered if they'll put Jordan Greenway alongside Tage Thompson so they can move Alex Tuch down to that RW2 spot. It would make a lot of sense to balance the top two lines, but it would also weaken the top line and that might not be a good trade-off.

While Greenway could get to the top trio, I'm wondering if this isn't a great opportunity for someone like Matthew Savoie to get to the second line out of training camp. He is a right shot that might be ready for the minutes, but he'll have to earn it. How the team runs its lines will be something to watch closely.

???-Couturier-Konecny

Expectations are low for the Flyers this season, but a (healthy) Sean Couturier could make a world of difference in the fantasy game. From 2019-22, in nearly 800 minutes together at 5-on-5, the duo of Couturier and Travis Konecny was very good, and they were better together than apart:

Whatever we think of the rest of the roster, if Couturier can be close to what he was pre-injury, there is a premium top-line role up for grabs, and it would be a big boost to their power play, too.

Last year, Konecny's most common winger was Joel Farabee. That seems a good bet to be the guy to get the first crack, but as we saw last year, John Tortorella will not let a line or player flounder for any lengthy stretch. If Farabee can't stick, I wonder if Tyson Foerster makes his way up there.

The Columbus Blue Line

It is a safe assumption that Zach Werenski will run the top Columbus power play, but will he be the only defenceman there? Will Adam Boqvist stay in the lineup? Will any of the top prospects crack the roster? Who is being paired with Werenski? Not that the Blue Jackets will be a bastion of offence, but there could be valuable fantasy minutes up for grabs even if both Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson skate in their top-4 mix.

More than anything, I just want to see how Columbus sorts this out. They have eight defencemen under contract, Tim Berni is still an unsigned RFA (per Cap Friendly), and they have a couple high-end prospects. There is a lot of competition, and that makes this an intriguing situation to follow. It could also be frustrating for fantasy managers of non-Werenski Jackets blueliners.

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