Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Important Note – I'll be running another mailbag next week and maybe one more the following week; so there's still time to send me questions. See the end of the column for instructions on how to do so.

Question #1 (from Michael)

In a 12 team, keep 4 league with skater categories of G, A, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, I'm keeping Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar, and Mitch Marner. For the last spot I'm debating between JT Miller and Roman Josi. With the absence of BS but having SHP, I'm leaning toward Miller. Who would you keep?

While it's true that Josi has more than adequately proven he's a top tier offense producing d-man, Miller is just a phenomenal stat stuffer for this particular league. Keep in mind too that Miller's stats for the 2022-23 season look worse than they portend, as although he barely surpassed the point per game mark, he ended very strong, with 26 points in 20 Q4 games. Even as Miller ages he seems to be hitting and blocking shots even more. Josi, in contrast, has never once averaged a hit per game and, at 33, is a good bit older than Miller.

Plus, with Makar you already have a stud d-man. Yes, the same could be said about Draisaitl and Marner covering your team's scoring bases; however, Miller brings a far more complete dimension to your squad. If he can play like he did in 2021-22, he'd potentially be a top ten talent in this format. As solid as Josi is, he's not getting better, as 2021-22 clearly is an outlier given what he did before and after. But with Miller producing 26 points in his final 20 games, his 99 points in 2021-22 seem like less of an aberration than Josi's 96 that same season. Go with Miller. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Greg)

What are your thoughts on Evan Bouchard? Does he have a chance to have a huge breakthrough QBing the high-octane Oiler PP? What's his ceiling for 2023-24?

Depending on who you ask, his huge breakthrough might have already occurred, whether it was in posting 16 points in 18 games in Q4 of 2022-23, or a jaw dropping 17 in just 12 contests in the playoffs. But how "for real" were those stats?

In Q4 he potted five goals on just 29 SOG – this from a player who in two full seasons shot below 6%. So right there he probably had three more goals than he deserved, which would've put his total at 11 points in his final 18 games. Still very good, but not outstanding. In the playoffs, 15 of his 17 points came via the man advantage, which is an unfathomable rate for a defenseman in general, but even more so on the Oilers given the extent to which Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are PPPt magnets, with McDavid routinely having a PP IPP of 80%+ and Draisaitl 70%+. So for most PPGs scored by the Oilers one of them is virtually guaranteed to nab a point, and both of them get a point one more than half of the team's PPGs. With Bouchard tallying 15 PPPts in just 12 games, sporting an 88.2% IPP on the PP in the process, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that was far and away unsustainable.

Still, if we look at Tyson Barrie last season while he was still with the Oilers, he began with 32 points in 45 games, with 21 of those points coming on the PP. This from a rearguard who last had an IPP on the PP that was over 62% six long seasons ago. Maybe the 15 PPPts Bouchard tallied in the postseason were less unrealistic than first thought?

Don't get me wrong – that pace and PP IPP are not going to be replicated over the course of an entire regular season; but consider Victor Hedman, who had a 73% or higher PP IPP in each of the 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 seasons, all for a Tampa Bay team that finished in the top nine each season in PP conversion percentage. So while yes it is not as easy to nab points on the PP when taking the ice with points magnets like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, let's not forget that in the three seasons prior to 2022-23, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had collectively averaged under 50% for PP IPP, and last season Zach Hyman, who was the fourth forward on the top unit, had a PP IPP of 36.1% despite logging the 35th most PP minutes of any forward, with no one ahead of him in PPTOI having a PP IPP of less than 50%. Long story short, although McDavid and Draisaitl are PPPt magnets, RNH and Hyman are not, making it more conceivable that Bouchard will be able to pile on PPPts as Barrie did, what with the Bouchard of 2023-24 being at least as talented as the 2022-23 version of Barrie, and likely far more so.

All things considered, I like Bouchard for 60-point downside with point-per-game upside. That's what talent and a dream deployment can do. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Johnny)

My league counts Pts, G and PPPts only, so goal scoring is important. With that in mind, who would you keep among (1) Kent Johnson or Tommy Novak, and (2) Moritz Seider or John Carlson? 

Missing is the details of the keeper league, which is critically important, especially for rating the two defensemen. With Carlson, you have one of the most proven rearguard scorers in the league over the past few seasons. In fact, no other rearguard dating back to 1990-91 had 10+ goals and 0.8+ points per game every season between the ages of 28 and 32. Only one player even did it four times, and that was Paul Coffey, although for what it's worth Coffey had great seasons at age 33 and 34, but then fell off a cliff. Carlson already slipped last season, although being injured might have had something to do with that. In Seider, you have one of the most highly regarded, young d-men although his scoring and SOG both dropped last season. Looming in Detroit is the arrival of Shayne Ghostisbehere who will need offensively favorable deployment, which could prevent Seider from being a true "the guy" #1 d-man in every sense. If this is a true keeper league though without many funky rules, it has to be Seider because Carlson might have just one more season of out-producing Seider at best.

For the forwards, Johnson's rookie season went quite well, with his TOI rising every quarter and Q4 seeing him also average over two SOG per game and 2:19 on the PP. The improvements made by the Blue Jackets this offseason were down the middle, rather than wing, making it easier to envision Johnson having a top-six spot sewn up. As for Novak, he had a monster Q4, which some are writing off due to Nashville's forward corps being pretty decimated. Still though, Novak was solid even going back to Q3; so in truth he was playing quite well for essentially half the season. That should earn him a long look in the top six, with the Preds not exactly brimming with talent to push him aside. Here too, whether or not the league is a keeper probably is the deciding factor, as Johnson's future looks bright and he's six years Novak's junior. In a one year league though, I'm rolling the dice with Novak, who might have a lower floor but also likely a higher ceiling. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Ben)

I'm in a 16 Team, keep 9, weekly H2H league. Rosters are 9F, 4D, 2G, plus 5 bench spots. Categories are G, A, PPP, Blks+Hits, PIM, W, GAA. We have a salary cap of $63M and players are signed on 3 year contracts at varying amounts in 0.5 million increments based on our draft, which is a combination of an auction and descending value rounds to claim players starting at 7.5 million and going down to 0.5 million. We can keep 2 prospects on our roster at a time beyond the 20 salaried players that are drafted each year, and prospects can be activated at any time at a salary of 1.0 million. Free agents can be picked up after the draft from the waiver wire at a salary of 2.0 million (which is why I have a lot of guys on my roster at that salary). I own the following players, with their 2022-23 salaries denoted: Jake Oettinger (1.0 million), Brandon Montour (2.0 million), Mikhail Sergachev (3.5 million), Charlie McAvoy (5.0 million) and Tyler Bertuzzi (0.5 million) who are all pretty much locked in, and I can keep up to four from this list: Brayden Point (7.5 million), Kevin Fiala (7.5 million), Troy Terry (2.0 million), Tanner Jeannot (2.0 million), Brayden Schenn (2.0 million), Boone Jenner (1.0 million), Mike Matheson (1.5 million), Roman Josi (7.0 million), Pheonix Copley (2.0 million).

Salaries are not a huge concern, as they can be worked around when we draft the rest of our team; but it’s pretty useful to have players who contribute on low salaries like Bertuzzi at 0.5 million. One big question I have is whether Copley will run with the starting role in LA, as that would provide a lot of value given how well the Kings tend to fare defensively. I’m also curious to hear your take on whether Point and/or Fiala will do enough this year to justify their higher salaries compared to a guy like Terry. Lastly, do you think we’ll see a bounce back from Jeannot, as his value goes through the roof if he’s scoring goals like he did in his rookie season?

I realize it's tempting to impute value to Copley, especially when his impediment to the starting job in LA is Cam Talbot, who, when not hurt last season, didn't exactly light the world on fire. But guess what – if you take a long look at Copley, there's not a lot to like. Yes, his GAA was decent; however, I think that was a function as much – if not more so – of playing for the goal-stingy Kings. Copley's SV%, which is far more telling in terms of his individual talent, was barely north of .900, and in the same vicinity as Talbot. Copley also had more than one Really Bad Start for every five starts. That's lousy no matter how you slice it. And his Quality Start % was 54.1%, which, although not bad, isn't superb either. Yes, he had a solid Q4; however, name me another goalie who logged over 200 games in the AHL and then first played more than 27 games in the NHL at age 30 and then went on to be even marginally good? No one is coming to my mind, mostly because I suspect it's essentially unheard of. And we need look no further than the last later career breakout of Jack Campbell and where that went to see what might be in store for Copley. He's not a keeper in my book.

I also don't like Fiala at $7.5M. When I look at LA I see a deep team that likely will play a style that is cut from the Kraken's 2022-23 cloth, with no player getting heaps of ice time and a lot of guys scoring in the 50-75 point range. And if Fiala was going to be more than an 85-point player, it would've happened by now. I fear he won't even yield point per game output again as a King, making him a non-keep at $7.5M.

Point is tempting. Yes, him passing the 90-point threshold for a second time legitimizes him having done so more than when it had happened only once. But in both his most productive seasons his SH% – which, don't get me wrong, is always very good – was too high even for him. Yes, he might have another great season in him, but Tampa's firepower also is likely going to start to fade so I don't see him as a keep at $7.5M either.

For your team, my for certain keeps are Oettinger, Montour, Sergachev, and Bertuzzi. McAvoy at $5.0 I'm not sure about, as the presence of Hampus Lindholm and the likely lower scoring on the horizon for the Bs might make him a bit expensive, although his is quite solid in multicat. Honestly, I think I'd rather have Matheson, who's a bargain and showed he has 60+ point upside, even for the still not quite ready for prime time Habs. Josi is a 70 point downside player, but his price tag is a tough pill to swallow and he isn't super in banger categories. So that might be it for goalies and d-men, for a total of five.

The forwards I'm keeping are Terry, who also is not great in bangers but seemingly is a 70-point floor player who could explode at any time. Jeannot I also like as a gamble. With Ross Colton and Alex Killorn both gone, I think Jeannot will get more favorable deployment and I think he has it in him to produce the way he did two seasons ago. That leaves two more spots, and in terms of value I like Schenn and Jenner. Neither are sexy picks, but Jenner likely will still get favorable deployment given his faceoff prowess and proven ability to fit in the top-six. Schenn had a great finish to 2022-23 and always seems to produce when all is said and done. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Justin)

I'm in a 14-team, keep 5, H2H league with rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1F, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5 bench, 2 IR and 2 IR+ and categories of G, A, PTS, PPPts, SOG, +-, FW, Hits, Blocks, W, Saves, SV%, SO. The league is very competitive. Winning teams often have FW, shots, and hits coming from all of their forwards. Its how I also like to play — very banger-focused.

The keep five format makes it so managers to tend to keep their best 5 players year over year – that is, very few teams will keep "upside" guys, preferring instead "here and now" players. For my five spots, I'm debating between Nathan Mackinnon, Tage Thompson, John Tavares, Brady Tkachuk, Cale Makar, and Ilya Sorokin.

I feel the locks are Mackinnon, Makar, and Tkachuk. Probably Tage makes sense too, and most others I've asked agree; so it comes down to keeping Tavares or Sorokin. My thoughts are, for Tavares, how many centers averaged a point, 0.5ppp, over 3 shots, 10 FW, and 1.5 hits per game? Very few, making Tavares a top-20 overall fantasy player (season average) last year given our categories. Yes, he’s old and his stats have nowhere to go but down; but I don't see his situation changing much year over year. On the other hand, Sorokin is a top 5 goalie now who might only get better, and who will get me lots of saves and a superb SV%. As for other cats, shutouts are hard to count on and I can't see Sorokin leading the league in wins any time soon. Still, it seems crazy to not keep him. But I tend to play my goalies through the FA market and waiver wire; and in a H2H format, where all that matters for me is a player’s performance in the three playoff weeks in March, I feel like I can more easily find a hot replacement level goalie than a FA forward who will fill the buckets like Tavares. Speaking of the playoffs, in Week 1 of our fantasy playoffs NYI play four games (so Sorokin presumably gets three starts) and TOR plays only two games. But then in week two Toronto has four games.

You can see I’m trying to convince myself to keep Tavares. Am I out to lunch?

You say this is a very competitive league? Let's use that to help influence the decision, because I do think you might be more attached to Tavares than is deserved, especially since his PPPt and HIT rates were both far and away career highs, yet you seem to factor them into his actual value going forward. In truth, the chances of him duplicating one, let alone both, of those numbers is remote.

Back to the plan. Put Tavares and Sorokin both on the trade block and see what each would fetch you in return. If indeed Tavares is worth as much as you say he is, and the league is more enthused about what players can do in the here and now versus their down the road potential, he should fetch you solid value in return. At the same time, field offers for Sorokin. Then weigh them both. I strongly suspect the offers for Sorokin will blow away those for Tavares. That would, in essence, indirectly give you the guidance you're seeking.

But beyond that, looking at the players one by one, I've touched upon Sorokin's amazingness in some of my previous columns. Here are the highlights. The 2022-23 campaign marked his third straight season of 68%+ of his starts being quality starts, with no other goalie who’s played 20+ games having done so even twice in these past three seasons. He also had two of the top five GSAA seasons over the past three, with no one else occupying two spots in even the top 15. He is far and away the leader in shutouts over the past three campaigns. You say he's a top five goalie? I think that's not giving him enough credit. He's top-three for sure, and perhaps after this season he will be number one, with the major question being how well the team in front of him will fare.

As for Tavares, he's had a superb run of consistent productivity, with 13 straight seasons of 70+ point production. But prior to 2022-23 he had three straight seasons of under 80-point scoring rate. He defies comparison, as for 13 straight seasons from age 20-32 his scoring rate was between 0.85 and 1.15 and his SOG rate was 2.9+. The next highest total for a center meeting those criteria was seven, for Eric Staal, Brad Richards, Alexei Yashin, and Mike Modano. How did they fare from age 33 onward? Staal had another season at a 76 point pace and then the bottom fell out, Richards was below a 55 point pace over the rest of his career, Yashin had 50 points in 58 games in what was his final NHL season, and Modano had one more season of 77 points.

Based on these attempted comparables, you might be looking at another solid season from Tavares, but perhaps a steep drop off thereafter. Is that enough to lose your hold on what might already be, or could very soon become, the best goalie in hockey and a top three netminder in fantasy? As I said, see what the trade offers for each tell you; however, from where I sit you want to keep Sorokin, as not doing so would be shortsighted and not the best path forward for your team. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Jesse)

I'm in an 8 team, keep 7 league with skater categories of G/A/PIM/PPP/FOW/SOG/HIT/BLK and goalie categories of W/GAA/SV/SV%. Rosters are 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 1Util, 2G, 7BN, 2IR+. My 6 "locked in" keepers are: David Pastrnak, Nikita Kucherov, Tage Thompson, Kirill Kaprizov, Mika Zibanejad, and Igor Shesterkin.

For the last keeper, I'm debating between Roope Hintz or Miro Heiskanen. Was Hintz's postseason success sustainable? Should not having a keeper defenseman among my six locks prompt me to opt for Heiskanen? What would you do in my shoes?

As for whether I think Hintz's postseason success is sustainable, can I say yes…..and no? I did feel that there was room for him to rise to the level where he could syphon points away from Jason Robertson, and he did just that in the postseason, as I find it no coincidence that when Hintz's postseason scoring rate rose by a 20 point pace, Robertson's dropped by even more than that.  Was that a sign of things to come though, or just a short-term aberration?

Robertson's points per 60 minutes for the 2022-23 regular season was 4.2, which was bested by only Connor McDavid. But Hintz is a talent in his own right, enough so that I feel comfortable predicting he is better than an 80-85 point forward, albeit not by much given how much of a points magnet Robertson is and how little they both take the ice as compared to other top tier players. So yes, Hintz can do better due to raw skill, but working against that are the ice time limitations. In the end, that adds up to 80-90 points, with the exact total depending perhaps on how well Robertson fares.

As for Heiskanen, whatever philosophy the Stars have in terms of throttling forward ice times clearly does not apply to their young phenom defenseman Heiskanen, as he logged the sixth most TOI of any rearguard in the entire NHL. That having been said, his PPTOI was a slightly less great 17th and his overall ES TOI ranked him eighth. Something else about Heiskanen is he saved his best for last, with an astonishing 27 points in his final 19 games, with 11 of those on the PP. At just age 24, there is no reason to think that was a fluke or he can't find himself in the same conversation with Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin, and Quinn Hughes for elite young d-men.

As for other categories, neither is a stat stuffer, although Heiskanen might be the better of the two by a hair.  In the end, Hesikanen is my keep. Part of me wonders if Hintz should be kept over Zibs given their ages and Hintz's more upward trajectory. But Zibs is pretty darn solid and has shown no signs of slowing. I also toyed with the idea of having you not keep Shesterkin, but in a 2G league with peripherals, he makes sense. Although not keeping Hintz will hurt, I guarantee you that in a league with only 56 players being kept most teams will be facing similar dilemmas in terms of tough non-keeps. Good luck!

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As noted above, I'm running at least one more mailbag next week, and perhaps a third if I get enough questions to justify doing so. You can send questions to me in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.