Ramblings: Nylander’s Homecoming; Sabres’ Power Play; Montour and Ekblad Return (Nov 18)

Brennan Des

2023-11-18

On Friday, William Nylander put on a show for friends, family and fans on home soil, tallying three points in game two of the NHL's Global Series in Sweden. Although he was born in Canada, Nylander's roots are in Sweden. He's a citizen of both countries but represents Sweden on the world stage. Fuelled by energy from a crowd that adores him, Nylander extended his season-opening point streak to 16 games. The 27-year-old forward sits fourth in league scoring, currently on pace for 123 points. Considering his previous career-high – set last season – is a more modest 87 points, his current rate might seem outlandish. Although he might not score at this level all season, I think he can break the 100-point mark this year. His shooting percentages don't scream regression as both his individual rate and 5-on-5 team rate sit around the same mark they've been in recent years. In other words, we're not witnessing (1) him scoring on more of his shots than usual or (2) the team scoring on more of their shots than usual while he's on the ice. Part of the reason he's scoring more than last year is because he's putting more pucks on net. After averaging 3.6 shots per game last year, he's up to 4.6 so far this season. In addition, his 19 and a half minutes per game represent a one-minute increase from last year's 18:33 average.

While Nylander's shooting percentages aren't out of the ordinary, there is a percentage that stands out when compared to last year, and that's PPIPP (Power Play Individual Points Percentage). In recent years, Nylander registered a point on 50-60% of the power-play goals Toronto scored while he was on the ice. In contrast, that number is up to 83% so far this season. Not many players are able to maintain such a high percentage while playing top minutes for a full season, but the ones that do tend to be integral pieces of their team's power play. So far this year, Nylander has established himself as the heartbeat of Toronto's top unit. In previous seasons, Auston Matthews and John Tavares would lead Toronto in shots with the man advantage. This year, Nylander sits first with 22, Tavares sits second with 16, and Matthews sits third with 13. Nylander may have played a supporting role in the past, but now that he's in the final year of his contract, he's taking his game to a new level in order to secure a lucrative new deal.

Tyler Bertuzzi tallied two points in Friday's 3-2 win over the Red Wings. Bertuzzi spent most of his even-strength minutes beside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner early in the season. Through five games beside Toronto's young stars, he failed to register a point at even strength. As a result of those early struggles, head coach Sheldon Keefe moved Bertuzzi to a line with William Nylander and John Tavares. The trio has played well since they were put together, thoroughly outshooting, outchancing, and outscoring their opposition (via NaturalStatTrick). Since joining Nylander and Tavares, Bertuzzi has posted six even-strength points over 11 games. It's not a world-beating pace, but throw in some modest power-play production and we're talking about a player who can flirt with the 50-point mark, posting a solid number of hits and penalty minutes in the process. Some may have had higher expectations for Bertuzzi given the 75-point pace he posted with Detroit just two seasons ago, but his role now is completely different from the one he played with the Red Wings back then. During that career-best season, he skated nearly 20 minutes a night and saw 61% of Detroit's total power-play time. With Toronto, he's skating just under 16 minutes a night, seeing a 26% share of PP time.

Connor Hellebuyck stopped 24 of the 26 shots he faced en route to a 3-2 win over the Sabres on Friday. Hellebuyck had a rough start to the season, surrendering four or more goals in each of his first three starts. He's played 10 games since then, giving up three or less in nine of those 10 appearances. Although he's starting to find his rhythm, his overall numbers are still worse than we've come to expect from him, so you may be able to pry him away from a disgruntled fantasy manager via trade. After posting a 2.49 GAA and .920 save percentage last year, he currently sits with a 2.91 GAA and .897 save percentage. As we've highlighted, his overall numbers are weighed down by a few bad games early on, so I don't think there's major cause for concern. He's established himself as a top tier netminder over a large sample, so I'm not too worried about a few bad games. In fact, I'm optimistic about Hellebuyck's fantasy outlook for the rest of the season because the Jets have been playing well defensively. Based on expected goals against, Winnipeg's defense currently ranks top-10 in the league (via NaturalStatTrick).

Friday marked Buffalo's first game of the season without Tage Thompson, who led the team in scoring last year. Thompson is expected to miss at least a month of action due to a wrist injury. In his absence, the team's top power play featured Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka. While those first three names should be familiar from last year, it's Mittelstadt and Peterka who are seeing their first major roles with the man advantage.

In Mittelstadt's case, this is something we started to see before Thompson got injured. In his first 10 appearances of the campaign, Mittelstadt was stuck seeing 34% of Buffalo's total power-play time. However, over the team's last seven games, Mittelstadt leads the way with a 69% share. It hasn't resulted in much production just yet, but this extra opportunity with the man advantage could help him flirt with a 70-point pace this year.

In contrast to Mittelstadt, Friday was Peterka's first game this season on the top unit. Although he didn't cash in with the man advantage, he managed to tuck in a breakaway at even strength. Peterka got off to a slow start this year, posting just two points in his first seven outings. Since then, the 21-year-old forward leads the team with 10 points in 10 games.

One name you'll notice I didn't mention when discussing Buffalo's top unit is Dylan Cozens. Even with Thompson injured, he saw just 34% of the Sabres' total power-play time on Friday. This is part of a concerning trend lately where Cozens isn't seeing a prominent role with the man advantage. In his first six games of the season, he enjoyed a 69% share of Buffalo's total power-play time. Next nine games, 49%. As you might imagine, both of his power-play points this season came during that first-six game stretch.

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In order for Cozens to be a valuable fantasy asset, a prominent power-play role is vital. He didn't see big minutes with the man advantage for the entirety of last season, but it's no coincidence that his most productive stretch featured a lot of PP action. From November 19th, 2022, to January 10, 2023, Cozens racked up 28 points in 22 games. 13 of those points came with the man advantage as he enjoyed a 62% share of PP time. Outside of that stretch, he saw less power-play opportunity and was understandably less productive. I don't think we've seen the last of Cozens on the top unit, but I think his overall play needs to improve significantly before he gets another shot.

After spending the past few months recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad finally made their season debuts on Friday. Oliver Ekman-Larsson had been manning Florida's top power-play unit while Montour and Ekblad were sidelined. With all three defenseman healthy against the Ducks, it was interesting to see OEL lead the way with a 61% share of power-play time, while Montour saw 54% and Ekblad saw 47%. Considering Montour and Ekblad were on the top unit last year, it'll be interesting to see if OEL can maintain a prominent role with the man advantage for the rest of the season. He'd been averaging 23 minutes a night while Montour and Ekblad were sidelined but saw just 18 minutes of action on Friday. Montour led all Panthers with 24 minutes while Ekblad saw 20.

Panthers' captain Aleksander Barkov left Friday's game against the Ducks following a knee-on-knee collision. Florida's off this weekend, so we probably won't get an update on Barkov's status until closer to Monday, when the team returns home to host the Oilers.

Sidelined for the past five games with a shoulder injury, Jack Hughes was back at practice on Friday. He'll be a game-time decision for Saturday's game against the Rangers. In five games without Hughes, Dawson Mercer has four points, skating 19 and a half minutes a night. Before Hughes got injured, Mercer averaged 17 minutes a night and didn't have a single point through 10 games. It'll be interesting to see whether Mercer just needed some time to get going this year and Hughes' absence simply gave him more ice time to find his game, or if Hughes actually hinders Mercer's opportunity and production. I'd lean towards the former.

Thanks for reading! If you ever have fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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