Looking Ahead: Heidy Ho, Neighbours!
Andrew Santillo
2023-12-01
Welcome back everyone! Stopped myself today at work jotting down things to get to tomorrow, as it's hard to believe we're already into December. As we turn the calendar into next month, let's talk about a few players and clubs to have on your radar.
Stats in this article do not include Thursday’s games.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Jake Neighbours, LW, St. Louis (Rostered in 4% of ESPN leagues, 30% Fantrax, 8% Yahoo) – So here I was this morning thinking I was going to write up the newest member of the Blackhawks Anthony Beauvillier, I even had some notes written down, or rather "note" singular. "Might play with Bedard". However, in going through the slate for Thursday I took a look at St. Louis and that leads us into this week's Immediate Fix. Jake Neighbours come on down.
I haven't rostered a St. Louis skater in any of my leagues this season outside of Torey Krug for a game or so at the beginning of the season, but Neighbours is a player that I'm considering rostering in two of my larger leagues. He has six points in his last six games played and as of right now slated on the St. Louis top line with Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich. Granted, the Blues mix up their lines a fair bit, but one thing I've noticed this season is typically whatever the top line at even strength is will also be fully correlated on the power play.
I do like this addition in larger leagues and as a nice bonus, the Blues play four times next week, so we'll get plenty of exposure if this line is indeed going to stick together. I'd say for now this is more of a short-term addition but that's not to say that we might come back to Neighbours at some point again this season.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Patrick Kane, RW, Detroit Red Wings (Rostered in 64% of ESPN leagues, 84% Fantrax, 72% Yahoo) – Okay hold on here folks. Before you go and message me on Twitter…or X, whichever we're calling it these days, that Kane isn't exactly a reach, I get it. Put the phone down and let the marching band go. This is for everyone out there who either drafted Kane waiting for this day to come or stashed him after the draft on IR if he went undrafted. We just need to talk about his return here and what to expect going forward, then I promise next week we'll talk about a less rostered player.
So, let's start with what we know right now as positives. As mentioned, Kane is returning to an NHL club and perhaps sooner than most anticipated as it was reported over the summer that he was already skating which was a very encouraging sign. He also signed for less than what we had all assumed coming in at $2.75M and not upwards of $5M for those out there in cap leagues. One last positive here is that it's Patrick Kane. If he is in fact healthy and can come back to NHL game speed quickly, you could very well have somewhere around 40 points coming onto your lineup for the rest of the season.
Kane is a Building Block for those reasons, but I just want to err on the side of caution. Different position here, but two seasons ago Tuukka Rask had a similar hip surgery and was expected to return to the NHL around the same time as Kane, midway through the season. A lot of people in fantasy rushed to add him to their team and he was trending on our site. Ultimately, he played in I believe a handful of practices, appeared in four games, and before we knew it was out of the league entirely. We also had a situation this year with Nicklas Backstrom, who in all likelihood is headed towards retirement as well. I say all that to say that we just don't know with a player who is 35 years old, coming off significant hip surgery, just how he will look on the ice.
As far as both Kane and his familiarity with Alex DeBrincat, don't get me wrong. It definitely helps having played together, but for fantasy I typically don't take too much stock into players that were once paired up when it's been a while since each played together. Perfect example is where Kane was previously in New York with Artemi Panarin, sure the duo was great seven years ago, but we have to remember that players are often in different spots in their respected careers when they are teamed back up down the road. I think if you're rostering Kane, he is still a Building Block for the boom potential but just wanted to look at all facets of him returning to the ice. Steve Yzerman spoke at the first intermission during the Blackhawks/Red Wings game and didn't give a timeline on when he's expecting Kane to make his Red Wings debut, but I would imagine that will take place sometime next week. Look for any morning skate updates or roster moves from Detroit to indicate just when he'll join the club.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Florida Panthers (Rostered in 40% of ESPN leagues, 21% Fantrax, 35% Yahoo) – Injury Odd-Man out, coming at you! Oliver Ekman-Larsson has slowly lost his fantasy value, and it could be the case for the rest of the regular season.
With Brandon Montour's return to the lineup, we've seen Ekman-Larssons average time on ice fall significantly, mainly because he is now off of the Panthers top power-play unit. Sure, the Panthers top power-play unit has been a little underlining this season, but it's still a bump in his value. Prior to Montour returning, OEL's ice time averaged around 21:50, not it is down to just 15 minutes a night.
This might be a sort of reverse odd-man out. Does he have short-term value? Well, no, not really. He's on the Florida second power play and slated along their bottom defense pairing. For the long-term though I do think there's a home for him in larger leagues where your waivers may be stretched thin. This is still a Panthers team that has seen its fair share of injuries on the blueline and there are far worse situations to be in than every now and gain jumping over the boards with Florida's second line.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Ottawa Senators (Rostered in 79% of ESPN leagues, 67%, Fantrax, 50% Yahoo) – Last week, Vladimir Tarasenko started to show some signs of life, so of course I rostered him in DFS and he of course did nothing. All jokes aside, the roster numbers are still much higher for a player that many may be rostering on name value.
We can get into the contract later, but I don't see how Tarasenko fits on this Ottawa club as he's now back down on the Sens third line. That's a tough place to be as they are getting caved in defensively. I think maybe he can reach the mid-40's in points this season but that is a far drop from the 70 and even 80-point seasons he had in the past. Maybe not a bad player to have in larger leagues but for those with smaller rosters I'd look elsewhere as I think there are better options out there.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through December 1st– December 13th
Buffalo – It may only be three games for Buffalo next week, but it's also a weekend back-to-back that has the Sabres grading out well as a Love 'Em.
Chicago – The Hawks are a Love 'Em and the best I can surmise is because they play four times next week and the analyzer loves that. Just think of all the fun things you can do with the Hawks. Like one off Connor Bedard…that's all I got.
Colorado – The Avs have both Anaheim and Philadelphia at home their schedule next week. This could be a stretch where they can rack up some points for those with Colorado in points pools.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Toronto – A higher rostered club playing only two games next week? You know what that means, they're a Leave 'Em for the time being.
Boston – Like the club above, Boston is one of the two clubs that will play in only two games next week. As a higher rostered club in fantasy and most certainly DFS, they'll be a Leave 'Em for now.
Carolina – West Coast road trip for an eastern club is never something that we tend to target but like I've said in the past, better to get the west swing done and over with in the front half of the season.
Friday, December 1st to Thursday, December 7th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.15 – Away CBJ – Home SEA NYR TOR |
Colorado 4.11 – Away ANA LAK – Home ANA WPG |
Nashville 4.08 – Away BUF CHI – NYR TBL |
Chicago 3.96 – Away WPG MIN – NSH ANA |
Carolina 3.96 – Away WPG EDM CGY – Home BUF |
Steer Clear |
Edmonton .84 – Home CAR |
Florida 1.84 – Home NYI DAL |
Toronto 1.94 – Away OTT – Home BOS |
Calgary 2.73 – Home VAN MIN CAR |
Anaheim 2.94 – Away COL CHI – Home COL |
Saturday, December 2nd 25th to Thursday, December 8th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.11 – Away ANA LAK – Home ANA WPG |
St. Louis 4.09 – Away ARI VGK CBJ – Home VGK |
Nashville 4.08 – Away BUF CHI – Home NYR TBL |
Pittsburgh 4.06 – Away PHI TBL FLA – Home PHI |
Minnesota 3.97 – Away CGY VAN EDM – Home CHI |
Steer Clear |
Edmonton 1.79 – Home CAR MIN |
New Jersey 1.90 – Away VAN SEA |
Toronto 1.94 – Away OTT – Home BOS |
San Jose 2.66 – Away NYR NYI DET |
Calgary 2.73 – Home VAN MIN CAR |
Sunday, December 3rd to Saturday, December 9th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.27 – Away Los Angeles – Home ANA WPG PHI |
Buffalo 4.22 – Away BOS – Home NSH DET MTL |
St. Louis 4.14 – Away VGK CBJ CHI – Home VGK |
Nashville 4.08 – Away BUF CHI TOR – Home TBL |
Chicago 4.01 – Away MIN – Home NSH ANA STL |
Steer Clear |
Winnipeg 1.70 – Away COL – Home CAR |
Edmonton 1.79 – Home CAR MIN |
Anaheim 2 – COL CHI |
Florida 2 – Home DAL PIT |
Toronto 2 – Away OTT – Home NSH |
Monday, December 4th to Sunday, December 10th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Chicago 4.25 – Home NSH ANA STL WSH |
Seattle 4.19 – Away MTL – Home NJD TBL MIN |
Nashville 4.18 – Away CHI TOR MTL |
Montreal 4.14 – Away BUF – Home SEA LAK NSH |
St. Louis 4.14 – Away VGKCBJ CHI – Home VGK |
Steer Clear |
Toronto 2 – Away OTT – Home NSH |
Boston 2.36 – Home BUF ARI |
Winnipeg 2.74 – Away COL ANA – Home CAR |
San Jose 2.76 – Away NYI DET VGK |
Pittsburgh 2.85 – Away PHI TBL FLA |
Tuesday, December 5th to Monday, December 11th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Buffalo 4.43 – Away BOS – Home DET MTL ARI |
Colorado 4.41 – Home ANA WPG PHI CGY |
NY Islanders 4.36 – Home SJS CBJ LAK TOR |
Detroit 4.26 – Away BUF DAL – Home SJS OTT |
Chicago 4.25 – Home NSH ANA STL WSH |
Steer Clear |
Pittsburgh 1.76 – Away TBL FLA |
Winnipeg 1.90 – Away COL ANA |
Philadelphia 1.95 – Away ARI COL |
Boston 2.36 – Home BUF ARI |
Carolina 2.71 – Away EDM CGY VAN |
Wednesday, December 6th to Tuesday, December 12, 2023 |
Best Bets |
St. Louis 4.29 – Away CBJ CHI – Home VGK DET |
Nashville 4.24 – Away TOR MTL – Home TBL PHI |
Chicago 4.21 – Away EDM – Home ANA STL WSH |
Edmonton 4.20 – Home CAR MIN NJD CHI |
Detroit 4.12 – Away DAL STL – Home SJS OTT |
Steer Clear |
Anaheim 2.19 – Away CHI – Home WPG |
Boston 2.36 – Home BUF ARI |
Vancouver 2.73 – Home MIN CAR TBL |
Columbus 2.80 – Away NYI – Home STL FLA |
Los Angeles 2.80 – Away MTL NYI NYR |
Thursday, December 6th to Wednesday, December 13th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.41 – Home WPG PHI CGY BUF |
NY Islanders 4.25 – Home CBJ LAK TOR ANA |
Nashville 4.24 – Away TOR MTL – Home TBL PHI |
Chicago 4.21 – Away EDM – Home ANA STL WSH |
Buffalo 4.18 – Away BOS COL – Home MTL ARI |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 2.73 – Home MIN CAR TBL |
Carolina 2.76 – Away CGY VAN OTT |
Columbus 2.80 – Away NYI – Home STL FLA |
Tampa Bay 2.80 – Away NSH SEA VAN |
Minnesota 2.85 – Away VAN EDM SEA |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.