Ramblings: All-Star Game, Schedule Next Week, Players Who Won’t Ever Reach Last Season’s Career Highs (Feb 4)
Ian Gooding
2024-02-04
Team Matthews was the winner of the four-team All-Star Game, with Auston Matthews being named the game's Most Valuable Player with two goals and an assist in the final game. Matthews was joined by Leafs teammates Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, and William Nylander on his All-Star team on the home ice of Scotiabank Arena.
I wasn't overly excited when the NHL announced it would be bringing back the draft format. Team Foligno and Team Toews didn't exactly draw my interest, let's put it that way. However, the fact that many of the teams were picked the way they were with for example Leafs on one team and Canucks on another, along with involved celebrity coaches like Michael Buble, seemed to make things work this time. The game itself will probably never be one to reminisce on with the grandkids one day. Yet it still has to be an amazing experience for everyone lucky enough to be in attendance either for the on-ice activities or the other fan events.
Buble, by the way, is a huge fantasy hockey guy. He just happened to drop that in the interview that was better known for something else that made people giggle. Let's hope he visits Dobber Hockey for the best fantasy hockey information out there.
Also, I just observed that there was a complete lack of defensemen in this game. By my count there were only four defensemen participating: Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Morgan Rielly, and Rasmus Dahlin. I haven't noticed whether they've done this in recent seasons, but I remember when an All-Star lineup had to be filled out similar to an NHL roster with a balanced number of forwards and defensemen. Positions probably don't matter as much with the 3-on-3 format, though.
This made me laugh. Nikita Kucherov playing the heel in Toronto.
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Next week is a bit of an odd week with some teams still on a break. I don't think we can call it a "bye week" like the NFL, since nearly all the teams will be back in action within the next seven days. However, there are some major gaps in the schedule for some teams that can result in major roster inefficiencies if not closely monitored.
Start
Colorado, Vancouver, Washington – These are the four-game teams that could give you plenty of mileage this week, when you consider that some teams have one or even no games (see below). You'll have plenty of opportunity to see what Elias Lindholm can do as a Canuck. I'm glad I already have him rostered on two of my teams.
NY Rangers – The Rangers are a three-game team, but the one I specifically mention here because they are the only one to play on three light days (Monday/Wednesday/Friday). They also avoid the busy Saturday. I like someone like Alexis Lafreniere here, who is rostered in just 30% of Yahoo leagues and has been lining up on the Artemi Panarin line for much of the season. Or even Blake Wheeler, who has two goals and seven shots over his last two games while on the Rangers' other scoring line.
Bench
San Jose – No games next week. You can insert an obvious joke about Sharks players putting up zeros for much of the season anyway. I'm not sure there's any reason to hang onto any San Jose players not named Tomas Hertl or Logan Couture.
Columbus, Detroit, Los Angeles, Nashville, Ottawa, Seattle – Each of these teams plays one game next week, and not until a busy Saturday.
For more on the schedule, see the Schedule Planner on Frozen Tools, or refer to the most recent Looking Ahead.
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Throughout my time working on the Midseason Guide, I had the chance to examine player upsides and three-year peak career averages. In the end, Dobber took care of these, although I certainly have my own opinions on these. I'm not about to critique what he has entered, but that and recently coming across a few players who aren't coming anywhere close to their career highs last season has me thinking about which players may never reach these career highs again. Here are a few such players – not necessarily one-hit wonders, but instead players who I don't think will ever hit last season's totals again.
Thompson's last four season's point-per-game totals from 2020-21 until this season are as follows: 0.37, 0.87, 1.21, 0.72. I had a feeling Thompson's production would decline this season, so I let someone else draft him in the first round or early second round. I know he ran at a 100-point pace for much of the season, but that's hardly been the norm for him. A big chunk of that decline has been power-play production, which is down from 34 PPP last season to just 8 PPP so far this season. As mentioned on the recent Keeping Karlsson podcast featuring Dobber writers, Thompson could be an 80-point player – definitely not a 100-point player and not a 60-point player, as he is on pace for this season.
We had a bit of a preview of a Thompson breakout with his 38-goal, 68-point season in 2021-22. We had nothing to hint that Montour would hit a huge breakout in 2022-23. The best he'd done until then was three 30+ point seasons. It might be the recovery from shoulder surgery, but Montour is producing at a 27-point pace after 33 games. Based on his advanced stats and deployment, Montour's production this season has to increase. However, another 70-point campaign seems like a bridge too far. Going to borrow again from the Keeping Karlsson podcast, but 40 points seems reachable with Montour possibly reaching 50 points again.
Kuzmenko was already at the top of many bust lists because of an insanely high 26.8 SH%. In other words, he had scored 38 goals by taking just 142 shots. He is nowhere near that goal total or his point total from last season (73) in 2023-24, as he took up permanent residence in Rick Tocchet's doghouse – even being healthy scratched a few times. The good news is that Kuzmenko will get a fresh start in Calgary and likely top-6 usage. Even with that, another 70-point campaign seems out of reach given his low shot total (< 2 SOG/GP). As well, the Flames seem to be headed toward a rebuild, which limits the potential for top-end linemates.
This one might be too easy, since Karlsson's 101-point campaign last season was completely out of left field. Until then, Karlsson was a player on the decline, battling injuries while playing for a bottom-feeding Sharks team. Karlsson is still a very productive player, as he is currently on a 60-point pace in his first season with the Penguins while logging over 25 minutes per game and first-unit power-play time. Even if the Penguins power play was way more productive than it has been instead of one of the league's least productive units (13.1%) with significantly more talent around him, Karlsson was unlikely to hit 100 points yet again. He's now 33 years old with likely a few more fantasy-relevant seasons after this one.
Up until last season, it seemed that Nugent-Hopkins was a bit underwhelming for a first overall pick. Certainly not Nail Yakupov, but he never had that season that would wow anyone. Until last season, that is, when he scored 104 points. The power play was a major reason, as the Nuge scored over half his points (53 PPP) there. Prior to that, Nugent-Hopkins never had a 70-point season. When all is said and done for the 2023-24 regular season, he could end up with his second-best season, as he is currently on pace for 80 points. For what it's worth, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are also both down from last season in terms of point-per-game production.
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