Frozen Tool Forensics: Raddysh, Orlov, Andersson, Hronek, and Roster Rates
Chris Kane
2024-03-22
Congrats if you are still invested in a hockey team at this point, it likely means your fantasy journey is continuing. Last week we focused on some immediate players who were streaking and whether or not they might be good adds to your roster. We also hit on a few highly rostered players who might be worth a drop. That article ended up focusing solely on forwards, so to ensure that all skaters are getting their due, this week we turn to defensemen.
To set up this article I ran a Percent Rostered Report for the last two weeks. Essentially, I am looking for players that are low rostered and doing well (for the first table) and then highly rostered but very cold (for our second table). Once I had that report in hand, I exported it to rearrange some columns and to add a points per game number for easier sorting. For each table I have included player info and then their stats over the last 14 days (the report was run on March 21st so will not include Thursday night games). For the purposes of this article, I am using Fantrax Rostered percent. Yahoo rostered numbers are usually a little less relatable to competitive leagues as they tend to have more public or inactive leagues and teams.
So first up, which players are rostered in less than 50% of Fantrax leagues and are actually doing well right now?
Name | Pos | Team | GP | PTS | PTS/G | SOG | TOI | PPTOI | Fantrax Rostered % |
DARREN RADDYSH | D | T.B | 5 | 7 | 1.40 | 10 | 17:38 | 1:23 | 17 |
RYAN MCDONAGH | D | NSH | 6 | 6 | 1.00 | 5 | 22:31 | 1:41 | 15 |
DMITRY ORLOV | D | CAR | 8 | 6 | 0.75 | 18 | 18:00 | 0:34 | 30 |
JALEN CHATFIELD | D | CAR | 8 | 6 | 0.75 | 12 | 15:26 | 0:02 | 7 |
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN | D | TOR | 7 | 5 | 0.71 | 12 | 20:04 | 2:21 | 32 |
Like with last week, the caveat I will give for all of these players is that you need to take a look at their schedules. Adding a streaking free agent will do you no good if you don't have space in your roster to get them in any games. It is particularly important in these small sample sizes.
Don't let the lofty numbers fool you. I am not particularly interested in Darren Raddysh. He is on a decidedly second power play and getting fewer than 18 minutes a night. His seven points in five games include a five-assist night, and a goal. He has had a couple of streaky stretches with five assists in 5-10 games at other points this season, but he has also taken 27 games to get five assists at others. In terms of scoring this will be just his fifth on the season and it had been 17 games since his last one. The moral of the story is that I don't think we can count on another five-assist game, or even a goal from Raddysh to keep this streak alive.
Ryan McDonagh on the other hand is kind of interesting. He is not getting top power-play time (though that is true for most of this list), but he has actually been quite good since the beginning of February. He has put up 17 points in 20 games since Jan 29th (a 70-point pace). Sure, over a full season it might not hold, and he isn't shooting a ton, but we just need the run to keep going for another couple of games to be helpful.
Over in Carolina, Dmitry Orlov is the latest Hurricane defenceman to get on a bit of a run. The four points in his last four games were his first points in 10 games. In fact, we have to go back 27 games to the beginning of January to find four more points from Orlov. He is shooting, which is something with 12 shots over this point span. He did get some brief power-play deployment, which accounted for two of these points. I am going to rate Orlov as pretty unexciting. The power-play time was gone by March 19th, and it is unlikely he scores two more goals in his next few games. The caveat here is that if he gets back on the power play, I am slightly interested.
I am even less interested in Jalen Chatenfield. He has a surprising number of points given his low time on ice and no power-play time. During the run he has two goals on his last eleven shots, which doesn't make me very excited for his next few games. I would take Orlov first.
Finally, we get to Timothy Liljegren. I think the lead is sufficiently buried, but if Liljegren is available in your league definitely go get him. With Mitch Marner out Liljegren has been manning the top power play. While he only has one power-play point in this streak, that actually makes me a little more interested. That power play is potent and if he has five points in his last six games without connecting on the power play. I am more optimistic that he might be able to keep getting points (with a power-play point or two taking the place of regression at even strength). He also contributes a decent amount of peripherals if that is helpful in your league.
Long story short, get Liljegren. Then there is a gap of value, and then there is Mcdonagh.
And now on to the flip side – some highly rostered players who are not performing well at all.
Name | Pos | Team | GP | PTS | PTS/G | SOG | TOI | PPTOI | Fantrax Rostered % |
CHARLIE MCAVOY | D | BOS | 6 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 23:32 | 3:30 | 97 |
FILIP HRONEK | D | VAN | 5 | 0 | 0.00 | 7 | 22:28 | 1:00 | 91 |
RASMUS ANDERSSON | D | CGY | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | 7 | 23:42 | 1:58 | 91 |
JAKOB CHYCHRUN | D | OTT | 8 | 1 | 0.13 | 30 | 23:13 | 2:42 | 96 |
NOAH DOBSON | D | NYI | 7 | 2 | 0.29 | 14 | 22:54 | 3:26 | 100 |
Ok so right off the bat, please don't drop Charlie McAvoy or Noah Dobson. They have been too good all season and while these cold streaks are certainly inconvenient, they haven't lost their skill or their deployment. As far as Rasmus Andersson, Jakob Chychrun, and Filip Hronek go, what you do depends on exactly what your schedule is and what you need. I don't think any of them are must-holds.
Hronek is currently on the second power play has seen a significant drop in point pace since the start of the season. It has amounted to a 27-point pace since January 13th. I am not dropping him for Chatfield, but the rose-colored glasses from the start of the season should not prevent managers from moving on.
Similarly, Rasmus Andersson has definitely fallen out of favor (at least fantasy deployment wise) in Calgary. He has not been on the top power play for some time now. It was Noah Hanifin until he was shipped out, but even without Hanifin, Andersson has still been on the second unit at best. He has provided value even off the top power-play at various points, but not very consistently. He is currently in his coldest stretch of the season with only four points in his last 20 games. The only thing he has really been helpful for recently is blocks. Consider that for sure, but unless he gets back on that top power-play he should be very much in consideration for cycling out of your lineup.
Over in Ottawa, Chychrun has five points in his last 20 games. That is not what managers were hoping for earlier this season. He has gotten some random turns on the top power play when others were out, but recently it has been mostly second power play. He did briefly see some time on a two d, three forward unit on March 19th but it isn't something I would hang my hat on. The thing that Chychrun does have going for him is peripherals. He has been consistently getting four or even five shots per game, and getting at least two blocks. I would rank him higher than Andersson right now for that reason. Even without points he might be helping you in those areas. Plus, if this unusual power-play deployment sustains that is good news for him. He certainly isn't untouchable, but there is hope for some kind of contribution if you are strapped for moves and stuck with him.
That is all for this week.
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